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4/10-4/11 Potential torch


earthlight

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John, if we can time the warm front/cold front properly, 70s are definitely within reach, maybe a repeat performance of Monday. I find that guidance is usually underdone on highs S of the WF and overdone to the N of it. Lack of vegetation also helps at this time of year.

My worry is the backdoor doesn't move out until Sunday afternoon, and FROPA occurs midday Monday, so the timing is "off" on a big torch once again. If we can get a few more hours of heating Monday, then 70-80 is likely.

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Trying to time a warm FROPA this far out is no good. Sure, the upper air pattern says warmer times, but we have to let the higher res models do their work on this in the short term before we jump on anything. Svr wx tho looks likely over parts of the CONUS with this trof. Nice stuff.

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I think Sunday, we aren't likely to get very warm, in NYC with the flow mostly out of the south. But Monday and perhaps Tuesday have a better shot of getting into the 70s, with more SSW-SW flow, ahead of the cold front.

Yes, the warmest days will likely be Monday into Tuesday with 80 degrees within reach--I'm not saying we'll get there, but I think it's within reach. A more southerly or even s-se wind on Sunday should hold temperatures down.

WX/PT

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Sunday's the transition day. Could bust, but I think the interior reaches the 60s on Sunday, then 70s likely by Monday. DGEX shows it (FWIW) and 850s would certainly support it. We just need some sunshine and then things could really torch.

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I think when the warm front does at least appoarch the area by Monday NYC has a shot of 70 F. Even better chance on Tuesday actually just behind the cold front with a WNW downsloping wind with coastal shore areas warming without that cold sea breeze keeping the temps down. Sunday will be the trasition day with most of the area from the city and east will stay in the 50's while inland areas will be in the 60's.

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Sunday's the transition day. Could bust, but I think the interior reaches the 60s on Sunday, then 70s likely by Monday. DGEX shows it (FWIW) and 850s would certainly support it. We just need some sunshine and then things could really torch.

we are well into the southwesterly flow by 12z sunday.

this is nothing like the warm front earlier this week

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Any chance of organized convection (severe threat) at the end of the torch?

My general rule in CNJ is to not expect any T-storms until post May 1st, if any occur before then, it's a bonus. Regarding strong T-storms, don't expect any until after June 1st. And severe weather, don't expect it period. :lol:

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My general rule in CNJ is to not expect any T-storms until post May 1st, if any occur before then, it's a bonus. Regarding strong T-storms, don't expect any until after June 1st. And severe weather, don't expect it period. :lol:

If we get a true warm sector with a warm front to the north, a low passing to our west and north and a trailing cold front, I don't see why convection cann't be ruled out if the front reaches our area during or slightly after peak heating. We don't need to have dew points in the upper 60's and 70's to see strong convection especially with a strong low level jet. It was so humid yesterday morning that it felt more like a July day than early April. From experience, 90% of the time the dew points get up into the 70's, too much activity, convective debree ect. develops out ahead of the cold front so that our best chance at seeing severe weather ends up being with discrete cells well out ahead of the main line. The cutoff seems to be roughly route 80 with many squall lines usually missing me to the south. The other place they develop is over Orange County, and then pass down through Sussex, Western Passaic, Bergan and then the city ect. The tornadic supercell that hit NYC last year followed this path.

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It appears from the text soundings for NYC off the 12 Z ECM that the warmest NYC gets is Monday 18 Z which is near 70 degrees. There after it looks like it keeps some kind of on shore flow to keep the warmest of the temperatures west of the city while the city itself (again according to the text soundings) comes in at upper 60s on Tuesday..and the 60s on wednesday.. Interior regions however..on Monday are near 80 degrees..

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