ag3 Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Hi all--long time lurker here. A favor to ask--my wife is organizing the local elementary school carnival tomorrow (water slides, DJ, games, etc.). It was postponed due to weather twice in May--tomorrow is the last possible day in the school year to hold the carnival. What is your best guess of thunderstorm potential in central Bergen County tomorrow afternoon? My laymen's reading suggests unsettled weather but that they chances of widespread, organized convection seemed to have waned a bit from yesterday, although still possible. Any gut feel would be greatly appreciated. Thanks in advance. 12z NAM has an area of strong tstorms impacting NE Jersey tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Was great in Indianapolis last week. Didn't get dark until 945 Not a minute every day but we do lose about 40-45 seconds every day. The sun rises later daily. And as the chart points out, starting July 8th, we lose sunrise time and sunset time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Was great in Indianapolis last week. Didn't get dark until 945 Yeah. I love when it gets dark late. If I had a choice I would make dst +3 hours in the winter. Let the sun rise at 9 and get dark at 8, even in winter. People work until 5pm, on average, and it would be nice to be able to have 3 hours of sunlight left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 12z NAM has an area of strong tstorms impacting NE Jersey tomorrow afternoon. yeah, the same NAM that cost me TWO tee times last Friday. Throw that piece of junk out the window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Yeah. I love when it gets dark late. If I had a choice I would make dst +3 hours in the winter. Let the sun rise at 9 and get dark at 8, even in winter. People work until 5pm, on average, and it would be nice to be able to have 3 hours of sunlight left. This. Nothing worse that not seeing the snow when it falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 yeah, the same NAM that cost me TWO tee times last Friday. Throw that piece of junk out the window. Its done a fair job. Its not easy for any model to pinpoint t-storm exact locations. You asked that day: "when is it raining tomorrow, I have a morning t-time." I responded: "3am-9am and then again in the afternoon and evening." I was going only off the 12z run of NAM that day. It raind 3am-9am and again in the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Yeah but it would be closer to getting light at 10-1015 in the morning and that would be insane Yeah. I love when it gets dark late. If I had a choice I would make dst +3 hours in the winter. Let the sun rise at 9 and get dark at 8, even in winter. People work until 5pm, on average, and it would be nice to be able to have 3 hours of sunlight left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 The GFS has been consistent with showers/storms tomorrow through Saturday but figuring when the heaviest or most organized is going to be hard to pinpoint. Seems like tomorrow night is the best chance for widespread activity. Its done a fair job. Its not easy for any model to pinpoint t-storm exact locations. You asked that day: "when is it raining tomorrow, I have a morning t-time." I responded: "3am-9am and then again in the afternoon and evening." I was going only off the 12z run of NAM that day. It raind 3am-9am and again in the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Its done a fair job. Its not easy for any model to pinpoint t-storm exact locations. You asked that day: "when is it raining tomorrow, I have a morning t-time." I responded: "3am-9am and then again in the afternoon and evening." I was going only off the 12z run of NAM that day. It raind 3am-9am and again in the afternoon. I knew the morning one was going to be a problem but several runs of the NAM had the precip to the south. The afternoon 12z run showed nothing in terms of storms and that was a total Phail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 I knew the morning one was going to be a problem but several runs of the NAM had the precip to the south. The afternoon 12z run showed nothing in terms of storms and that was a total Phail. Yup, but the 12z run the day before, pretty much nailed both set of storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Yup, but the 12z run the day before, pretty much nailed both set of storms. models should get more accurate closer to the event, not less. Its like saying, the gfs nailed the snow storm at 180 hours, but never showed it again. That is a phail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Pouring in Holmdel. Nice summer day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Pouring in Holmdel. Nice summer day Newark 3pm Temperature 82.9 F (28.3 C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Newark 3pm Temperature 82.9 F (28.3 C I wonder if there de-icing planes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 I wonder if there de-icing planes 4pm Temperature 84.0 F (28.9 C) Some of their night time temps are warmer than this, so much for upper 90s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 I don't know man, we're basically in uncharted territory solar wise, unlike anything we've seen since the 1800s, which we all know was a very snowy century for NYC. No one thought this past winter could produce historic snowfall totals in a mod/strong La Nina, nevermind already after a historic winter. Extreme blocking for two consecutive winters. A lot depends on how the Sun behaves over the coming months from my standpoint. If things fall into place, yes, I wouldn't be surprised to see another big winter. My early guess however right now would be much less snowfall but with a cold/very cold regime in the US. Im sure you've read the new reports with great interest that we may be entering a period of deep solar minima that lasts through 2023 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 4pm Temperature 84.0 F (28.9 C) Some of their night time temps are warmer than this, so much for upper 90s. who called for upper 90s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 who called for upper 90s? The cool crew has now resorted to pulling calls out of their arses to make themselves look good. I mean, wow, a new low for them. You think you know a guy. At least the warm crew operates with honesty and integrity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Im sure you've read the new reports with great interest that we may be entering a period of deep solar minima that lasts through 2023 or so. Alex, yeah, cycle 24 is looking less impressive with each passing moment. A Maunder type minimum is certainly within the realm of possibilities. There's been a lot of talk on the climate forum lately regarding the minimum's impact on global temps over the coming decades, and I'm in the camp that believes there's much more to it than total solar irradiance. Years and years of very low solar activity can feedback over time, producing amuch cooler picture. Should be an interesting period of wx for us enthusiasts, with the -PDO, decline in the AMO, increased volcanism and low solar environment. Long stretches of poor winters ala the 70s-90s may be a thing of the past for the time being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 The cool crew has now resorted to pulling calls out of their arses to make themselves look good. I mean, wow, a new low for them. You think you know a guy. At least the warm crew operates with honesty and integrity. There's nothing honest about pulling 252 hour progs to signal the return of heat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 There's nothing honest about pulling 252 hour progs to signal the return of heat there is multi model and ensemble support for a ridge to come east from the plains in about 10 days http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/eps/ensm/essential!Geopotential%20at%20500hPa!North%20America!240!pop!od!enfo!plot_ensm_essential!2011062112!!/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 who called for upper 90s? Earthlight on the 15th posted a map that had +22 850s for today and said we would see upper 90s to 100 today. He also posted several dgex maps saying "oh yeah" or something like that, lol and a few gfs maps as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Earthlight on the 15th posted a map that had +22 850s for today and said we would see upper 90s to 100 today. He also posted several dgex maps saying "oh yeah" or something like that, lol and a few gfs maps as well. no he didnt. He said if it verified. He never made a prediction on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Earthlight on the 15th posted a map that had +22 850s for today and said we would see upper 90s to 100 today. He also posted several dgex maps saying "oh yeah" or something like that, lol and a few gfs maps as well. I did not think it was possible, but you might be more annoying here than in the Yankee thread! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 I did not think it was possible, but you might be more annoying here than in the Yankee thread! go have another drink. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 go have another drink. I only drink on the weekends negative nancy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 The cool crew has now resorted to pulling calls out of their arses to make themselves look good. I mean, wow, a new low for them. You think you know a guy. At least the warm crew operates with honesty and integrity. I hope thats not directed at me, if so tom im sorry if i pushed a bit to far. FWIW the temps have been between 85-90 the last two days i believe.....today the high was 86.....just seem crappy until that shower passed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 I hope thats not directed at me, if so tom im sorry if i pushed a bit to far. FWIW the temps have been between 85-90 the last two days i believe.....today the high was 86.....just seem crappy until that shower passed. I can't believe anyone is taking the back and forth between the heat mongers and cool crew seriously. Its summer, its slow, and its a banter thread. And here comes earthlight to trounce all over me but he knows myself, sundog etc are playing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 i predict a massive heatwave in July Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 i predict a massive heatwave in July A very good call actually, next week into July look HOT, signals are all there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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