MJO812 Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Irene took the same track . Thank god she wasn't as strong though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Steve D The upper level pattern modeled for this week is making me VERY concerned for the northern Mid Atlantic. For one, there is going to be a major flooding problem unfolding for the region next week. County on that. But I am also becoming uneasy with the forecast of the upper low that will form due to the remnants of TS Lee. If that upper low stays over the Tennessee Valley, that would draw Hurricane Katia right into the East coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 This is really close. 12z GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 LOL, this model sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 CFS looks like a massive +EPO pattern with a huge GoA low that torches the CONUS. Luckily it's usually wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 12z euro shifted way west with katia. It is still a miss though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Upton discussion. Katina eh ? MEANWHILE...BY THURSDAY...TROPICAL SYSTEM KATINA APPROACHES THE EASTERN U.S. PER TPC/HPC GUIDANCE...THIS SYSTEM WILL CURVE AWAY FROM THE COAST AS IT APPROACHES SOMEWHERE BETWEEN CAPE HATTERAS AND THE DELMARVA AREA...BUT IT MAY COME CLOSE ENOUGH FOR SOME OF THE OUTER BANDS TO ROTATE BACK TOWARDS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. 12Z GFS MAY BE PULLING THE SYSTEM TOO CLOSE TO THE COAST AS IT HAS MORE INTERACTION WITH THE REMNANTS OF LEE OVER THE TN/OH VALLEYS. THE 00Z ECMWF KEEPS THOSE SYSTEMS AS SEPARATE ENTITIES...AND KEEPS KATINA FARTHER OFFSHORE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 CFS looks like a massive +EPO pattern with a huge GoA low that torches the CONUS. Luckily it's usually wrong. Classic Mod NIna with no blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Classic Mod NIna with no blocking. It does look like a classic stronger Nina, cold air that bleeds in from the Northern Tier in December and then a +EPO/+NAO for the rest of the winter with the trough mostly over the Gulf of AK and into the Pacific Northwest at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 check out the ghost of hurricane gilbert on the 6z gfs long long long range, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 It does look like a classic stronger Nina, cold air that bleeds in from the Northern Tier in December and then a +EPO/+NAO for the rest of the winter with the trough mostly over the Gulf of AK and into the Pacific Northwest at times. The CFS basically shows 89-90 with a not so crazy cold December. 89-90 is a very good analog just based on a weaker Nina following a relatively strong one. The problem is the insane warmth of Jan-Feb and insane cold of Dec is just unlikely to be repeated. 2000-2001 is a much better analog if you are just using pure ENSO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 I want another heatwave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 I want another heatwave **** off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 I want another heatwave Me too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoSnow Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Me too. It seems that you folks live in the wrong area of the country for that. Rooting heat waves in September? Didn't you have enough heat this summer? lol Ahh, atleast there will be no hope for you guys in a couple of weeks. Bring on the cool weather!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 It seems that you folks live in the wrong area of the country for that. Rooting heat waves in September? Didn't you have enough heat this summer? lol Ahh, atleast there will be no hope for you guys in a couple of weeks. Bring on the cool weather!! I'm with A-L-E-X, I want 100+ in the summer and bone chilling temps in the winter....best of both worlds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ict1523 Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 I have enough of the heat. Can't wait to finally be able to turn the A/C off. Hate having the A/C on but my room needs to be sub 70F for sleeping. BBQ tonight and its uncomfortable sitting outside, too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 I want another heatwave I want snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 I'm with A-L-E-X, I want 100+ in the summer and bone chilling temps in the winter....best of both worlds same, i enjoy the extremes. But today was freaking hot and humid and we had complete cloud cover too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 It seems that you folks live in the wrong area of the country for that. Rooting heat waves in September? Didn't you have enough heat this summer? lol Ahh, atleast there will be no hope for you guys in a couple of weeks. Bring on the cool weather!! I despise the cool weather, once we get highs stuck in the 50's I lose interest in meteorology until a significant snowfall. Our first freeze is like getting hit with a Mack truck. Central FL/Houston is my ideal climate, so imagine being trapped in the NYC area during winter lol, it's my absolute limit, I refuse to live anywhere colder. I'm rooting for mid-winter 70's, we've gone too long without those. I'll even accept 50's in Jan/Feb. Snow doesn't really bother me, unless it's on the ground for a whole month like last winter, that was the worst. I only enjoy 1 extreme, excessive heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoSnow Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 I despise the cool weather, once we get highs stuck in the 50's I lose interest in meteorology until a significant snowfall. Our first freeze is like getting hit with a Mack truck. Central FL/Houston is my ideal climate, so imagine being trapped in the NYC area during winter lol, it's my absolute limit, I refuse to live anywhere colder. I'm rooting for mid-winter 70's, we've gone too long without those. I'll even accept 50's in Jan/Feb. Snow doesn't really bother me, unless it's on the ground for a whole month like last winter, that was the worst. I only enjoy 1 extreme, excessive heat. Seems like you need to head south my friend. lol I don't know who in their right mind enjoys heat that much. I have lived in Southern Georgia, and Central Texas so I know heat and it plain old sucks. I also work outside year round and I would chose 10 degrees and snow, over mid 90's and high humidity anyday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 I have enough of the heat. Can't wait to finally be able to turn the A/C off. Hate having the A/C on but my room needs to be sub 70F for sleeping. BBQ tonight and its uncomfortable sitting outside, too warm. I'm sick and tired of hearing my AC. I can't wait until I can just open my windows and turn the thing off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Steve D I have 0% respect for that "MET".. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 I have 0% respect for that "MET".. couldnt agree more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoSnow Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 I have 0% respect for that "MET".. hey man, how the hell have you been? I see you have some color on the trees starting up there already, just noticed it in my area today as well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 hey man, how the hell have you been? I see you have some color on the trees starting up there already, just noticed it in my area today as well! Big James... Whats good bro? Yeah the color is def. starting early up here. I thought I was seeing things for a min but a few others in the HV thread agreed on the early color. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 The CFS basically shows 89-90 with a not so crazy cold December. 89-90 is a very good analog just based on a weaker Nina following a relatively strong one. The problem is the insane warmth of Jan-Feb and insane cold of Dec is just unlikely to be repeated. 2000-2001 is a much better analog if you are just using pure ENSO. We know what can go wrong this winter with neutral following la nina-- 89-90 and 01-02 are the primary analogs, although I find it really hard to believe we would ever have the kind of nao we had in January and February 1990 lol-- not to mention, March also. 2000-01 seems to fit the current end of the cycle better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Seems like you need to head south my friend. lol I don't know who in their right mind enjoys heat that much. I have lived in Southern Georgia, and Central Texas so I know heat and it plain old sucks. I also work outside year round and I would chose 10 degrees and snow, over mid 90's and high humidity anyday. 100 degrees and low humidity over high humidity and any temp its not snowing in lol. The SE has the worst weather of any place in the country-- Arizona heat is much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 It seems that you folks live in the wrong area of the country for that. Rooting heat waves in September? Didn't you have enough heat this summer? lol Ahh, atleast there will be no hope for you guys in a couple of weeks. Bring on the cool weather!! This weather is boring lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Hi Katia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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