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NYC Banter and BS Thread Part II


earthlight

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This one is going to be a royal pain to forecast, Irene was relatively easy compared to Katia because the eventual Lee is going to be a major player in what happens to Katia. I honestly hope this thing does not wind up striking the area. Some people are only now starting to get their power back and or repair damage, the last thing we need is another strike, and this one would be worse because it would be impacting the school year as well.

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I miss you NYC....left my hometown of Dobbs Ferry NY today to teach in New Hampshire.

Why would you miss it? According to your reports, every event under performs and we have the most boring weather in the world. You spend more time in the SNE thread anyway, so me thinks thiis is just an attempt to get people to say goodbye to you.

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uk has a severe left bias though--id take that with a grain of salt

and NHC sh#t canned it. Too much :weenie: going on right now with people throwing out 1938 etc etc. There is a HUGE amount of time to follow this and the pattern is far more convoluted than with Irene with an anomolous cutoff over the deep south and the westerilies pushed up into bumble f%ck as a result of it.

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:o

f168.gif

the main thread is getting annoying with everyone including "odds favor a recurve" in their posts. All of a sudden people are experts at 10 day forecasts on there? LOL And then someone says 1938 lol. We get it, climo says recurve, you are not special if you say it. What we do know is models have been shifting west enough to make noise and Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the east coast should keep an eye for now. Its a very fragile pattern, and alot of it depends on Lee IMO

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I just think it's very interesting that there's even a slight hint of a threat less than a WEEK after a Cat 1/TS passed through when we normally go YEARS without anything. I wonder if lightning can strike the same place twice.

I'm not getting my hopes up, if I do then there's a 75% chance that it'll grind to a halt and head back into Africa or "recurve" off the face of Earth.

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i would *hit a brick if he said we didnt need to watch out and its going ots

Hurricanes are nothing like coastal systems....they may be more intensity error prone but I find that inside 7 days its extremely rare to see a system that most models have re-curving ever come in closer to the coast than expected...at day 10 or beyond this could happen. More often what happens is storms that look like they are headed for the Gulf or Florida strike further up the coast. You'd figure after 30 years JB would have a handle on that.

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Hurricanes are nothing like coastal systems....they may be more intensity error prone but I find that inside 7 days its extremely rare to see a system that most models have re-curving ever come in closer to the coast than expected...at day 10 or beyond this could happen. More often what happens is storms that look like they are headed for the Gulf or Florida strike further up the coast. You'd figure after 30 years JB would have a handle on that.

lolz

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