tornadojay Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 The GFS is trying to build back the subtropical ridge. It's gotta build back more. The developments over the southeastern U.S. will play a big role as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 This one is going to be a royal pain to forecast, Irene was relatively easy compared to Katia because the eventual Lee is going to be a major player in what happens to Katia. I honestly hope this thing does not wind up striking the area. Some people are only now starting to get their power back and or repair damage, the last thing we need is another strike, and this one would be worse because it would be impacting the school year as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 I miss you NYC....left my hometown of Dobbs Ferry NY today to teach in New Hampshire. Why would you miss it? According to your reports, every event under performs and we have the most boring weather in the world. You spend more time in the SNE thread anyway, so me thinks thiis is just an attempt to get people to say goodbye to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Maybe we should pay attention to Katia? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Maybe we should pay attention to Katia? I was just going to post this. Just a few nudges west and we will all be in trouble again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 12z GGEM has the low just northeast of the Bahamas at 144. South and west of the GFS. It is interesting how Katia keeps on shifting west on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 12z GGEM has the low just northeast of the Bahamas at 144. South and west of the GFS. It is interesting how Katia keeps on shifting west on the models. And UKIE has it in the islands; North of Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted September 2, 2011 Author Share Posted September 2, 2011 And UKIE has it in the islands; North of Cuba. uk has a severe left bias though--id take that with a grain of salt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 uk has a severe left bias though--id take that with a grain of salt and NHC sh#t canned it. Too much going on right now with people throwing out 1938 etc etc. There is a HUGE amount of time to follow this and the pattern is far more convoluted than with Irene with an anomolous cutoff over the deep south and the westerilies pushed up into bumble f%ck as a result of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 yeah, the crickets you here is the Euro taking Katia and throwing in her in the garbage can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 yeah, the crickets you here is the Euro taking Katia and throwing in her in the garbage can. Still a while out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 the main thread is getting annoying with everyone including "odds favor a recurve" in their posts. All of a sudden people are experts at 10 day forecasts on there? LOL And then someone says 1938 lol. We get it, climo says recurve, you are not special if you say it. What we do know is models have been shifting west enough to make noise and Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the east coast should keep an eye for now. Its a very fragile pattern, and alot of it depends on Lee IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 I just think it's very interesting that there's even a slight hint of a threat less than a WEEK after a Cat 1/TS passed through when we normally go YEARS without anything. I wonder if lightning can strike the same place twice. I'm not getting my hopes up, if I do then there's a 75% chance that it'll grind to a halt and head back into Africa or "recurve" off the face of Earth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 JB said that we have to watch out for Katia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 JB said that we have to watch out for Katia. i wish someone would break your fingers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 i wish someone would break your fingers Forky isn't nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Forky isn't nice. you're tolerable after 8 drinks or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 you're tolerable after 8 drinks or so same goes for ag3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 same goes for ag3 8? Lol. I saw you after 3 drinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 8? Lol. I saw you after 3 drinks. ...of which you knew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 ...of which you knew Yeah. You were blasted before you came in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 JB said that we have to watch out for Katia. i would *hit a brick if he said we didnt need to watch out and its going ots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoSnow Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 you're tolerable after 8 drinks or so lmfao! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 i would *hit a brick if he said we didnt need to watch out and its going ots Hurricanes are nothing like coastal systems....they may be more intensity error prone but I find that inside 7 days its extremely rare to see a system that most models have re-curving ever come in closer to the coast than expected...at day 10 or beyond this could happen. More often what happens is storms that look like they are headed for the Gulf or Florida strike further up the coast. You'd figure after 30 years JB would have a handle on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Hurricanes are nothing like coastal systems....they may be more intensity error prone but I find that inside 7 days its extremely rare to see a system that most models have re-curving ever come in closer to the coast than expected...at day 10 or beyond this could happen. More often what happens is storms that look like they are headed for the Gulf or Florida strike further up the coast. You'd figure after 30 years JB would have a handle on that. lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Probably a good idea to watch downstream. The rains from Lee are something to be concerned about in NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 From Uptons forecast for my area today : Today: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms between 3pm and 4pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 78. Southwest wind between 7 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. I really wish they could narrow down the timeframe for the showers a little more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Yeah. You were blasted before you came in. I was the same way after I had those 2 drinks at the bar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 :thumbsdown: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 ^^^That just made my day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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