KEITH L.I Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 That's not true...I remember being awed at the 2/25 Snowicane, the 12/26 winds, the 2/3 ice storm, etc. Comparing the forecasts to verification, Irene was a bust. No more commentary needed. Not really it was a weak cat 1..what did you think was gonna happen?..it was trees and falling wires and major power outages...half a million people without power on LI is a big deal..it did all it could with the power she had Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 did warlock end up getting his tan on at 1pm? he saide the sun was going to come out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Comparing the forecasts to verification, Irene was a bust. No more commentary needed. Thats amazing, just to your east Fairfield cty is a disaster, extreme storm surge, in some cases historical, 750,000 without power in Ct...................................thousands of trees down across the state, sorry to hear it was such a bust in Westchester Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 At one point, the Euro had a Cat 3 slamming into Cape May and a Cat 2 up here. I forgot how the low the pressure was but I think it was around 940 something.I knew something was up when it was weakening when it hit S.C. If it didn't weaken, a Cat 2 storm would have been possibly for NYC..That's just the point. A storm that crosses in the five boroughs, or for that matter almost anywhere west of the Nassau-Suffolk line just about has to weaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Thats amazing, just to your east Fairfield cty is a disaster, extreme storm surge, in some cases historical, 750,000 without power in Ct...................................thousands of trees down across the state, sorry to hear it was such a bust in Westchester Real bad here joe.......work firehouse last night and today.......some of the strongest winds and weather i have seen in my life.......at some points it felt like a very long severe storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 That's not true...I remember being awed at the 2/25 Snowicane, the 12/26 winds, the 2/3 ice storm, etc. Comparing the forecasts to verification, Irene was a bust. No more commentary needed. Irene had much better winds then those events. And for a long period. What forecasts? You are capable at looking at models and making your own forecasts. I never expected more then 40-65mph sustained and gusts to 75mph. And that's exactly what occurred and on the higher end of the scale in Queens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 On Saturday morning, JB had NYC getting 80-100 mph winds. The 12z Euro on either Friday or Saturday had a 954 low on NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Ugh....I can't believe I stayed up for this.....nothing is happening really! ONly made it to Coney Island as a TS.... told you guys it was degrading into a TS yesterday afternoon...you were the ones who continued to keep your hopes up and believe the hurricane hype. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 On Saturday morning, JB had NYC getting 80-100 mph winds. The 12z Euro on either Friday or Saturday had a 954 low on NYC. you believed JB and chose to ignore lots of really good posts about the euro's problems with unrealistically deepening TC's...your fault Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 told you guys it was degrading into a TS yesterday afternoon...you were the ones who continued to keep your hopes up and believe the hurricane hype. Only a few were. Anyone that knows how to read maps should not have expected more then 50mph winds and gusts to 75 at max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 you believed JB and chose to ignore lots of really good posts about the euro's problems with unrealistically deepening TC's...your fault I guess you are right. Should have listen to the mets on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 you believed JB and chose to ignore lots of really good posts about the euro's problems with unrealistically deepening TC's...your fault The euro wind profiles NEVER showed anything more then 50knot sustained winds over NYC. Not in the past 48 hours, at least. People chose to ignore it. I was posting the NAM soundings which also never showed more then 55knot sustained winds as well. And again people ignored it. My expectations were for this type of storm and Irene performed up to it. I was facebooking Anthony for 2 days that this would happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Thats amazing, just to your east Fairfield cty is a disaster, extreme storm surge, in some cases historical, 750,000 without power in Ct...................................thousands of trees down across the state, sorry to hear it was such a bust in Westchester I'm not belittling the storm or those who suffered losses from it, I'm just saying it wasn't the hurricane expected, and that Hurricane Warnings were not warranted. Irene had much better winds then those events. And for a long period. What forecasts? You are capable at looking at models and making your own forecasts. I never expected more then 40-65mph sustained and gusts to 75mph. And that's exactly what occurred and on the higher end of the scale in Queens. NWS had 75-80mph wind gusts here. That didn't even come close to verifying. They had a Hurricane Warning for Westchester which means winds over 74mph, didn't even come close to verification. I don't think anyone verified a hurricane...even winds in the eyewall were only like 40mph. HPC had 13" of QPF for NYC, then downgraded to 11.5" QPF. Didn't even come close to verifying. Irene was not as powerful as expected. This was a non-event for those not living on the immediate coast or next to a river prone to flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 im really dissapointed irene never had that awesome look in the bahamas. I doubt it was even a cat 3 for all that long. Overall, this storm could have been much much worse had it made landfall as a 3 in NC then rode the coast. It would be cool to see a 1938 repeat, not a floyd repeat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 The euro wind profiles NEVER showed anything more then 50knot sustained winds over NYC. Not in the past 48 hours, at least. People chose to ignore it. I was posting the NAM soundings which also never showed more then 55knot sustained winds as well. And again people ignored it. My expectations were for this type of storm and Irene performed up to it. I was facebooking Anthony for 2 days that this would happen. Then NWS shouldn't have been forecasting 80mph winds here. Then Bloomberg didn't need to do as many evacuations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Then NWS shouldn't have been forecasting 80mph winds here. Then Bloomberg didn't need to do as many evacuations. its easy to say that after its over and you know what exactly happened, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 im really dissapointed irene never had that awesome look in the bahamas. I doubt it was even a cat 3 for all that long. Overall, this storm could have been much much worse had it made landfall as a 3 in NC then rode the coast. It would be cool to see a 1938 repeat, not a floyd repeat A 1938 repeat would be downright scary.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Then NWS shouldn't have been forecasting 80mph winds here. Then Bloomberg didn't need to do as many evacuations. For the priveleged that don't sit atop mt zucker with a magic forcefield that seems to protect you from all bad weather, the evacuations for the most part were warrranted and the nws did a fantastic job, especially with the TOR warnings, flood, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 A 1938 repeat would be downright scary.... What impacts did 1938 have for NYC vicinity? I don't think anything. I dont care about damage 80 miles east of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 For the priveleged that don't sit atop mt zucker with a magic forcefield that seems to protect you from all bad weather, the evacuations for the most part were warrranted and the nws did a fantastic job, especially with the TOR warnings, flood, etc. I agree. Bloomberg needed to make decisions 2-3 days before storm and at that time Irene was looking much worse. Even as is, I bet at least a few people were saved by not staying around during the pretty bad storm surge. As soon as the storm came off NC as a weak Cat 1, it was obvious we weren't going to get a significant hurricane. As soon as the euro locked in a Jersey coast track and thru NYC, People west of there should not have expected more then they got and people to the east thru Queens and Nassau shouldve only expected a strong tropical storm. People in eastern LI were 100 miles away from storm! That's the one area where NWS did do a bad job. It was obvious Irene was coming ashore 100miles west of eastern LI. But overall, they did a fabulous job! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 I agree. Bloomberg needed to make decisions 2-3 days before storm and at that time Irene was looking much worse. Even as is, I bet at least a few people were saved by not staying around during the pretty bad storm surge. As soon as the storm came off NC as a weak Cat 1, it was obvious we weren't going to get a significant hurricane. As soon as the euro locked in a Jersey coast track and thru NYC, People west of there should not have expected more then they got and people to the east thru Queens and Nassau shouldve only expected a strong tropical storm. People in eastern LI were 100 miles away from storm! That's the one area where NWS did do a bad job. It was obvious Irene was coming ashore 100miles west of eastern LI. But overall, they did a fabulous job! How can you say they did a great job when almost none of the warnings verified? NHC/NWS should have downgraded as soon as it was evident the storm was not going to be as powerful as anticipated. A weak Cat 1 over NC is not going to give hurricane-force winds to NYC, no way. Even though NHC kept the storm as a Category 1 hurricane, there were few places verifying those wind speeds, none once the storm got further north than NC. I agree that Bloomberg had to evacuate given the strength of the storm in the Bahamas, but it became obvious that Westchester wasn't going to see 80mph wind gusts pretty early in the game. So why were they in the forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 I agree. Bloomberg needed to make decisions 2-3 days before storm and at that time Irene was looking much worse. Even as is, I bet at least a few people were saved by not staying around during the pretty bad storm surge. As soon as the storm came off NC as a weak Cat 1, it was obvious we weren't going to get a significant hurricane. As soon as the euro locked in a Jersey coast track and thru NYC, People west of there should not have expected more then they got and people to the east thru Queens and Nassau shouldve only expected a strong tropical storm. People in eastern LI were 100 miles away from storm! That's the one area where NWS did do a bad job. It was obvious Irene was coming ashore 100miles west of eastern LI. But overall, they did a fabulous job! I got what I expected. Strong winds capabale of taking weak trees and thus powerlines down, torrential rains, and strong storms in the feeder bands. It was a dangerous and scary storm. NWS upton was by and large on the ball and awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 There will not be one gust recorded over 80mph anywhere outside of Suffolk county and SE NJ. Bump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 How can you say they did a great job when almost none of the warnings verified? NHC/NWS should have downgraded as soon as it was evident the storm was not going to be as powerful as anticipated. A weak Cat 1 over NC is not going to give hurricane-force winds to NYC, no way. Even though NHC kept the storm as a Category 1 hurricane, there were few places verifying those wind speeds, none once the storm got further north than NC. I agree that Bloomberg had to evacuate given the strength of the storm in the Bahamas, but it became obvious that Westchester wasn't going to see 80mph wind gusts pretty early in the game. So why were they in the forecast? Those winds were being verified on the eastern side of the storm. There was not one piece of land to the right of the storm until Queens and Nassau. While the storm was coming up, they were finding winds to 75mph on the eastern side, over the ocean. Several gusts, including LGA, Moriches and a few more on LI came close 75mph. Not sustained of course but still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Bump Great job! Still one of the worst non tornadic storms for our area, in our lifetime. Name me 2 better non snowstorms that you have had in your 30 years here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 that cherry by Africa is going to hit New England next, ala 1938. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted August 29, 2011 Share Posted August 29, 2011 What impacts did 1938 have for NYC vicinity? I don't think anything. I dont care about damage 80 miles east of me. Frankly one of the reasons that NYC is the pre-eminent city in the U.S. and probably the world is its relatively favorable weather. Yes there are heat waves but about 10-11 90+ days in a row is the max. There are blizzards but onlly two more than 26"., one of those likelky due to creative measuring. There are cold waves but only a few trips below -4F, -20C. And best of all almost no destructive-level earthquakes or tropical storms/hurricanes. New York City is where it is, not where Montauk is, for that reason. Thus I agree that 1938 is irrelevant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted August 29, 2011 Share Posted August 29, 2011 Frankly one of the reasons that NYC is the pre-eminent city in the U.S. and probably the world is its relatively favorable weather. Yes there are heat waves but about 10-11 90+ days in a row is the max. There are blizzards but onlly two more than 26"., one of those likelky due to creative measuring. There are cold waves but only a few trips below -4F, -20C. And best of all almost no destructive-level earthquakes or tropical storms/hurricanes. New York City is where it is, not where Montauk is, for that reason. Thus I agree that 1938 is irrelevant. Yes, this is a good post; but NYC has had a 30" plus snowstorm and we all saw it in January '96 and 2010, IMO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted August 29, 2011 Share Posted August 29, 2011 NYC gets a great taste of every type of weather. Most locations do not. Severe storms, tropics, heat waves, blizzards. you name it and a 20" snowstorm, and a 30" snowstorm same thing, shuts down the city, lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted August 29, 2011 Share Posted August 29, 2011 Yes, this is a good post; but NYC has had a 30" plus snowstorm and we all saw it in January '96 and 2010, IMO... I gather you're saying that both the January 1996 and Boxing Day were 30+ storms. Even if they were this doesn't change the analysis. The climate is far more manageable in NYC than say Boston or Montreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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