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NYC Banter and BS Thread Part II


earthlight

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I was just realizing what a potential mess this is going to be for the Barclays Golf Tournament that's in my area. Starts today and will be delayed by rain. Will have tomorrow and Saturday before essentially having to move the final rounds til who knows when

Yeah, i was so looking forward to watching that too. I have a 6:06 Monday morning. The rain should be over, i hope the course opens up.

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NAM would seriously produce CATASTROPHIC damage. Unbelievable.

Yeah, that's really frightening...it's the NAM in the long range but probably a worst-case scenario with water piling up the Hudson on S/SE flow as well as a long period of heavy rain, which commences long before the hurricane approaches this latitude.

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The next 24 to 36 hours will be critical with the models been trending west that could mean that NYC and LI could be spared the worse but heavy flooding rain is still good possibility. This still serious situation if the 12z NAM verifies this would be devastating for NYC/NJ and LI. The models could get either where 24 hours ago we were talking about likely a fish storm and now storm may cut inland. Don't forget the placement of the trough and the strength.

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The next 24 to 36 hours will be critical with the models been trending west that could mean that NYC and LI could be spared the worse but heavy flooding rain is still good possibility. This still serious situation if the 12z NAM verifies this would be devastating for NYC/NJ and LI. The models could get either where 24 hours ago we were talking about likely a fish storm and now storm may cut inland. Don't forget the placement of the trough and the strength.

Nam went east.

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Interesting graphic. How far out from the center do you think the 85-95mph winds (according to your graphic, when Irene effects NJ and NYC) will extend?

Good question. I made this map yesterday afternoon, and wasn't thinking too much about the coverage of hurricane force winds at the time, but I'd say that in my scenario, SE Coastal NJ and most of LI would experience hurricane force gusts, but I'm not sure how much wind there will be on the west side of the storm at this point. Of course, I'm open to having to shift my track further west to a Nassau County landfall, but I honestly don't think it's going to pass directly over NYC or further west than that.

The wind field, however, will expand, though, as the storm goes further north. The consistent sustained 85-95mph winds would probably from Farmingdale to the Hamptons. My track was supposed to gain a bit more latitude closer to LI, and then a slightly more dramatic "east" turn than what was drawn, but it's just incredibly hard to draw on Paint. SE Coastal NJ would have a period of hurricane force sustained winds, too.

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Good question. I made this map yesterday afternoon, and wasn't thinking too much about the coverage of hurricane force winds at the time, but I'd say that in my scenario, SE Coastal NJ and most of LI would experience hurricane force gusts, but I'm not sure how much wind there will be on the west side of the storm at this point. Of course, I'm open to having to shift my track further west to a Nassau County landfall, but I honestly don't think it's going to pass directly over NYC or further west than that.

The wind field, however, will expand, though, as the storm goes further north. The consistent sustained 85-95mph winds would probably from Farmingdale to the Hamptons. My track was supposed to gain a bit more latitude closer to LI, and then a slightly more dramatic "east" turn than what was drawn, but it's just incredibly hard to draw on Paint. SE Coastal NJ would have a period of hurricane force sustained winds, too.

Sounds reasonable to me. Thanks for the detail! The worst winds from a coastal storm of any kind I ever experienced in my lifetime was December 1992 in SE Monmouth in New Jersey. It would be intiguing to see if we could see similar from a hurricane in this region rather than a noreaster.

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