MJO812 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 If we are not going to get a lot of wind, I don't want the storm . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 No monitoring. someone needs to go in there and clean out all the junk It's fine if it stays in this thread, the banter thread. But I agree, in the main Irene NYC thread, there is way too much crap being posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 don't attack me in a banter thread dude, seriously. Did i say the models are trending? No, i said the euro has been behind the GFS as up until yesterday still had a wide LEFT track that is pretty much off the tables since no credible models show it. Fact of the matter is we are seeing wobbles left and right from hour to hour but concensus has absolutely shifted RIGHT in the last three days as a whole, and by a pretty significant margin since we were still looking at a SC/GA landfall as late as Sunday/Monday morning. Nothing is "behind" until the event has verified. I'm not attacking you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Steve D predicts 100 mph winds for the area http://www.nynjpaweather.com/2011/08/24/the-official-ny-nj-pa-weather-forecast-for-hurricane-irene/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Yup. Lots of crap. NorEaster should never be mistaken for anything but a troll at this point. Here's a hint buddy - it's more effective when it's subtle. And now we're posting the DGEX (for a tropical system?) and Steve D.'s thoughts? We must really be screwed then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Yup. Lots of crap. NorEaster should never be mistaken for anything but a troll at this point. Here's a hint buddy - it's more effective when it's subtle. And now we're posting the DGEX (for a tropical system?) and Steve D.'s thoughts? We must really be screwed then. Steve D's thoughts are fine, since its posted here in the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Yup. Lots of crap. NorEaster should never be mistaken for anything but a troll at this point. Here's a hint buddy - it's more effective when it's subtle. And now we're posting the DGEX (for a tropical system?) and Steve D.'s thoughts? We must really be screwed then. all of that is fine and can be funny if its in here. And for the record, while I think the junk in the main thread in NYC is bad today, its not nearly as ugly as some other threads on this board, so actually I am slightly proud of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Steve D's thoughts are fine, since its posted here in the banter thread. .... Not a huge deal, but I always know what point we're at when posts like that start happening. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Yup. Lots of crap. NorEaster should never be mistaken for anything but a troll at this point. Here's a hint buddy - it's more effective when it's subtle. And now we're posting the DGEX (for a tropical system?) and Steve D.'s thoughts? We must really be screwed then. not only posting it, but lying about what is has been showing before it was posted. Terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 http://www.americanw...post__p__908084 .... Not a huge deal, but I always know what point we're at when posts like that start happening. lol. Oh I agree. I woke up this morning to read the NYC thread to get updates and all I read was: "I knew it; storm is going east" "They always go east" "Models are trending east" "As I thought all along, the models have shifted east" "enjoy the cloudy skies" etc., etc., etc. Only a few good posts out of dozens were posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Oh I agree. I woke up this morning to read the NYC thread to get updates and all I read was: "I knew it; storm is going east" "They always go east" "Models are trending east" "As I thought all along, the models have shifted east" "enjoy the cloudy skies" etc., etc., etc. Only a few good posts out of dozens were posted. Sounds like winter time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Since we are posting DGEX in the real thread, I'm gonna post the JMA in this banter thread. Misses NC and all of LI and barely grazes eastern SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Only way anyone is seeing 100 mph winds is if they take a direct hit and get the eastern side of the eyewall. I don't see how the Jersey coast if they are 50-100 miles west of where the eye passes is going to get close to that. http://www.americanw...post__p__908084 .... Not a huge deal, but I always know what point we're at when posts like that start happening. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Since we are posting DGEX in the real thread, I'm gonna post the JMA in this banter thread. Misses NC and all of LI and barely grazes eastern SNE. JMA has good verification scores 3 days in, you know this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Regardless of what happens, in my lifetime these things have always been a letdown for this area. Floyd was a gust of wind and a bit of rain, it was a joke. That was a Cat 1 directly over NJ. Yes northern NJ got flooding. I think the worst we've had in this area in the past 20 years was 2003's Isabel. Somehow that slammed into North Carolina and managed to get us up here. Floyd wasn't as bad for south Jersey, but calling it a joke and saying it was just a gust of wind and a bit of rain makes you look very uninformed. Overall it is regarded as the worst rainstorm that NJ has ever seen. Widespread rainfall amounts of 8 plus inches in central and northern NJ (Somerville got over 13 inches), and some of the worst flooding this area has ever seen, particularly on the Raritan River, which devastated the towns of Manville and Bound Brook and got to its highest crest in those areas since the 1800's. While the winds weren't excessive, they still gusted to 50 plus mph in some areas, and the waterlogged soil allowed a lot of trees to come down and a lot of power outages resulted. We couldn't even drink tap water around here for I think a week because our water supply was contaminated by floodwaters. Saying Isabel was worse for us in NJ than Floyd is just laughable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 9z SREF is east of the previous run at 87 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 9z SREF is east of the previous run at 87 hours. check out the RSM. We would have high clouds and warm sun with a light breeze into your aunt's back yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 check out the RSM. We would have high clouds and warm sun with a light breeze into your aunt's back yard. :thumbsup: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 It can rain cats, dogs, lions, and tigers on Sunday with 100mph winds as long as its all over by 4am Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Southern and coastal NJ were expected to get hit much worse than they did and those locations definitely dodged a bullet with Floyd. On the other hand the excessive rainfall was not supposed to be as bad as it was in Central NJ and obviously that will always be what people take away from that storm. Just shows how even 24 hours before a landfall its nearly impossible to predict what a hurricane is really going to do. Floyd wasn't as bad for south Jersey, but calling it a joke and saying it was just a gust of wind and a bit of rain makes you look very uninformed. Overall it is regarded as the worst rainstorm that NJ has ever seen. Widespread rainfall amounts of 8 plus inches in central and northern NJ (Somerville got over 13 inches), and some of the worst flooding this area has ever seen, particularly on the Raritan River, which devastated the towns of Manville and Bound Brook and got to its highest crest in those areas since the 1800's. While the winds weren't excessive, they still gusted to 50 plus mph in some areas, and the waterlogged soil allowed a lot of trees to come down and a lot of power outages resulted. We couldn't even drink tap water around here for I think a week because our water supply was contaminated by floodwaters. Saying Isabel was worse for us in NJ than Floyd is just laughable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 ETA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Floyd wasn't as bad for south Jersey, but calling it a joke and saying it was just a gust of wind and a bit of rain makes you look very uninformed. Overall it is regarded as the worst rainstorm that NJ has ever seen. Widespread rainfall amounts of 8 plus inches in central and northern NJ (Somerville got over 13 inches), and some of the worst flooding this area has ever seen, particularly on the Raritan River, which devastated the towns of Manville and Bound Brook and got to its highest crest in those areas since the 1800's. While the winds weren't excessive, they still gusted to 50 plus mph in some areas, and the waterlogged soil allowed a lot of trees to come down and a lot of power outages resulted. We couldn't even drink tap water around here for I think a week because our water supply was contaminated by floodwaters. Saying Isabel was worse for us in NJ than Floyd is just laughable. Yea, definitely have to agree there.. Floyd was one of the most significant weather events in my lifetime.. that is for sure.. at the time, I had just started my job a few months earlier in East Hanover, NJ... let me tell you, there was basically no route I could find to even get to the office.. every major route was completely flooded out.. I actually had to pull into a school and call a co-worker and ask how I could get to the office. It took me hours upon hours.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 ETA Nice although its more of a frontal interaction and the main event looks to go east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I'll pay AG3 5 dollars if he does a play by play of the JMA today, since we are doing a play by play of the NAM in the main Irene thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I'll pay AG3 5 dollars if he does a play by play of the JMA today, since we are doing a play by play of the NAM in the main Irene thread. Lol. JMA has better scores then NAM in this range. That's how bad it is that a play by play is being done with the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Ruggie is cancelling this Hurricane for the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Lol. JMA has better scores then NAM in this range. That's how bad it is that a play by play is being done with the NAM. Trying to decide which is worse, the NAM, or the analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I guilty of posting dumb posts but this reminds me winter when tracking a storm and looking at model trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 958 just barely east of LI . Wow. http://raleighwx.ame...bTSLPp06102.gif Just a beautiful benchmark track and pressure level. I doubt it verifies but you never know. Please give me this track and strength with the 850 0 line east of the area and an ideal downstream block in the winter. Calling ChrisL, ChrisL where are you, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Steve D predicts 100 mph winds for the area http://www.nynjpawea...urricane-irene/ why do you post his garbage. As in winter take whatever he says and cut it in half. So someone in nyc area will have a 50 mph gust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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