TheTrials Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Yup. Use this thread for nonsense posts. Here's one: 18z HWRF shows a category 5 destroying Georgia. floodfan is sitting in front of his computer with his life vest on. Since its ok to track storms 7 days out in summer, there better be no complaints with said threads in winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 floodfan is sitting in front of his computer with his life vest on. Since its ok to track storms 7 days out in summer, there better be no complaints with said threads in winter. Shouldn't u be watching your washed up Giants? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Shouldn't u be watching your washed up Giants? its called multitasking, you should try it, you may be able to actually pick up the phone on the weekends during your "wife" time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 My aunt might cancel the party this weekend because of the rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 My aunt might cancel the party this weekend because of the rain She is going to be pissed at you when its sunny with light breezes out of the NW and you told her to cancel 5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 She is going to be pissed at you when its sunny with light breezes out of the NW and you told her to cancel 5 days out. I told her to wait out until Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I told her to wait out until Thursday. Give us her address so we can stop by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Shouldn't u be watching your washed up Giants? In other news, the guy who measures snow at LGA just signed a ten year contract extension....at the press conference, it was noted how pleased management was with the man's accuracy.... "The LaGuardia climate record definitively represents the weather conditions prevalent in northern Queens and today's signing insures this will be the case for yet another decade." ...Faux Sure, LGA operations manager Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 In other news, the guy who measures snow at LGA just signed a ten year contract extension....at the press conference, it was noted how pleased management was with the man's accuracy.... "The LaGuardia climate record definitively represents the weather conditions prevalent in northern Queens and today's signing insures this will be the case for yet another decade." ...Faux Sure, LGA operations manager LOL Im wondering about the JFK guy who basically ditched the airport for one of the storms last winter. They should hire people from here, they'd probably do it for free Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Apparently the 0Z NAM initialized Irene right over DR.. lol... Nice initialization.. What a joke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Yup. Use this thread for nonsense posts. Here's one: 18z HWRF shows a category 5 destroying Georgia. Wow that is very unlikely Maybe a category 3 or 4 could happen from FL to SC.. I wonder what does it show for our area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Hope everyone watches this and takes notes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 A lot of weenie suicides coming since the RSM which took this thing into the gulf of mexico for three straight days is now a huge fish storm. LOL. If this thing does turn out to be a complete miss, the myth that storms and patterns 10 days out in the summer are easier to predict that storms and patterns 10 days out in the winter will finally be put to rest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 A lot of weenie suicides coming since the RSM which took this thing into the gulf of mexico for three straight days is now a huge fish storm. LOL. If this thing does turn out to be a complete miss, the myth that storms and patterns 10 days out in the summer are easier to predict that storms and patterns 10 days out in the winter will finally be put to rest. With regard to forecasting tropical systems, who the hell said that? I've never heard of that "myth". Forecasting tropical cyclone paths (and even more so intensity, which can further effect the path) is notoriously difficult... even moreso than snowstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 With regard to forecasting tropical systems, who the hell said that? I've never heard of that "myth". Forecasting tropical cyclone paths (and even more so intensity, which can further effect the path) is notoriously difficult... even moreso than snowstorms. It's not that someone came out and said trooical cyclone are easier than winter storms, its just that it seems its far more acceptable to put up 10 day progs for storms and patterns in the summer than in the winter. How many heat threads have we seen 8+ days out? Now we have had a tropical system thread for over a week with people hanging on every model run and talking about the tight clustering of models 7 days away. Its ironic.. The rules should play evenly both ways. 10 days is 10 days no matter what and both types of forecasts deserve a big Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 It's not that someone came out and said trooical cyclone are easier than winter storms, its just that it seems its far more acceptable to put up 10 day progs for storms and patterns in the summer than in the winter. How many heat threads have we seen 8+ days out? Now we have had a tropical system thread for over a week with people hanging on every model run and talking about the tight clustering of models 7 days away. Its ironic.. The rules should play evenly both ways. 10 days is 10 days no matter what and both types of forecasts deserve a big Why? If the forecast accuracy is there, why shouldn't you forecast it? And forecasting a heat wave is an entirely different animal. As long as you have an anomalous ridge (for example), you'll get the heatwave. A cyclone's track depends on small details about ridge strength, etc. Just because you can't forecast one without some accuracy doesn't mean you can't forecast the other. Your example would only make sense if people were forecasting precise - to the 1F - forecast highs 8-10 days out. Furthermore, it isn't as easy to "track" a 10-day snowstorm because they very often haven't formed yet. Hurricanes can last weeks and have a specific pinpointed 'center' that can more easily be tracked, whether accurate or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gump Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 For anyone interested. Storm surge zone maps for NYC. http://www.nyc.gov/html/oem/downloads/pdf/hurricane_map_english.pdf Here's NJ storm surge maps as well http://www.state.nj.us/njoem/plan/evacuation-routes.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 GFS and NAM showing good chance of storms on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 GFS and NAM showing good chance of storms on Thursday. How many times do you plan on being wrong on a model run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I want a hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 As a former resident of the 11758, I have been waiting two years to have an excuse to post this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 He may end up being wrong but what he says about the latest model runs is true How many times do you plan on being wrong on a model run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 You know its bad when every tropical thread on the board went down the crapper and all the moderation stopped. Not sure whether to feel bad or to laugh at the people who have been handing on this for 10 days because the euro showed a landfall in florida at 240 hours and the euro is never wrong. GFS absolutely OWNED the euro over the past days with its eastward track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Storm didn't happen Trials. No model is right or wrong. Models do NOT trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Storm didn't happen Trials. No model is right or wrong. Models do NOT trend. lol, come on you are better than this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 lol, come on you are better than this. 90% of your posts in the main thread belong here in the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 This crap in the NYC threads is a great reason why so many look down on us here. Nothing's "over", and nothing's "imminent" yet. This seriously has to stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 This crap in the NYC threads is a great reason why so many look down on us here. Nothing's "over", and nothing's "imminent" yet. This seriously has to stop. This is a banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Storm didn't happen Trials. No model is right or wrong. Models do NOT trend. don't attack me in a banter thread dude, seriously. Did i say the models are trending? No, i said the euro has been behind the GFS as up until yesterday still had a wide LEFT track that is pretty much off the tables since no credible models show it. Fact of the matter is we are seeing wobbles left and right from hour to hour but concensus has absolutely shifted RIGHT in the last three days as a whole, and by a pretty significant margin since we were still looking at a SC/GA landfall as late as Sunday/Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 This crap in the NYC threads is a great reason why so many look down on us here. Nothing's "over", and nothing's "imminent" yet. This seriously has to stop. It's fine if it stays in this thread, the banter thread. But I agree, in the main Irene NYC thread, there is way too much crap being posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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