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NYC Banter and BS Thread Part II


earthlight

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I love how the forum is completely dead despite the NAM showing 6" of snow this weekend...maybe people are finally smart enough to ignore it.

I knew I find something about this up here. The BL and surface will be too warm for anything but at most a little sleet and/or a few wet flakes mixed in with the rain.

WX/PT

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The NAM has been having ridiculously cold bias and Friday will be just a cold rainy raw day for the coast with temps in the low to mid 40's. Wet snow will only be confined for the highest elevation above 1000 feet in NW NJ, Catskills, interior New England, and NE PA.

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The NAM has been having ridiculously cold bias and Friday will be just a cold rainy raw day for the coast with temps in the low to mid 40's. Wet snow will only be confined for the highest elevation above 1000 feet in NW NJ, Catskills, interior New England, and NE PA.

I wouldn't be totally shocked if we had a few sleet pellets to start, but what the NAM is showing is just ridiculous!

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I wouldn't be totally shocked if we had a few sleet pellets to start, but what the NAM is showing is just ridiculous!

At most parts of LI have a better shot especially in the higher elevation there of having some wet snow or sleet on Friday before ending. Everybody calls GFS the cold bias model but the NAM is so much worse and it is ridiculous and no way there will be 6-8" in NYC with this setup in Early April. The only the way in April there would be significant accumulation in NYC is a bombing noreaster like the Blizzard of 82. The 2003 was different because there was moderating cold air in place but this is a overrunning event no way temps will be at or below freezing all day on Friday. I expect it just be a cold raw rainy day with temps in the low 40's.

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At most parts of LI have a better shot especially in the higher elevation there of having some wet snow or sleet on Friday before ending. Everybody calls GFS the cold bias model but the NAM is so much worse and it is ridiculous and no way there will be 6-8" in NYC with this setup in Early April. The only the way in April there would be significant accumulation in NYC is a bombing noreaster like the Blizzard of 82. The 2003 was different because there was moderating cold air in place but this is a overrunning event no way temps will be at or below freezing all day on Friday. I expect it just be a cold raw rainy day with temps in the low 40's.

I would think if we see sleet with this setup, it would be at the start, rather than at the end.

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Day 5 torch again with a similar setup as yesterday. I swear to god if any clouds get in the way again im gonna punch a wall

I'd bet on Monday being the warmer day at this point, just ahead of FROPA, assuming timing remains around 18z Mon. Sunday morning we've still got the warm front hung up over NJ, and it's usually a bit slower than progged to move out. Probably will be a situation like yesterday where NYC was cloudy much of the day, rising temps by late afternoon.

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00z NAM would yield a 6 page thread if this were DJF, even M. Verbatim it's snowing quite heavily in the air, but sfc high pressure up north is far from impressive (only 1020-25mb). At this point it looks like a dreary day w/ highs in the low 40s.

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The air mass is dry enough that I could see snow all the way to the coast if precip. falls heavily enough. In fact, with the isotherms being oriented WNW-ESE, eastern LI may have a better chance at snow than interior northern NJ.

However, the main problem is going to be getting precip. into that dry air with WNW flow aloft. ECMWF and other models are further south with the axis of precip., and make more sense to me than the NAM.

It should be noted, however, that several of the GFS ensemble members look a lot like the NAM (note - these are 72 hour totals which include a small event on Wed night that produces about 0.20-0.25" in a swath from northern and central PA to northern NJ and NYC/LI.)

post-88-0-51345100-1302080153.gif

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Euro has had something very close to NAM for days.

But just as NAM comes in nice, last nights 0z euro took it all away and there is now barely any precip on euro. Only .11" total.

Edit: 6z NAM looks like euro too. Very little precip.

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And you thought we had strong storms here check this current pressure reading from the Bering Sea

Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 27.76 in graph04.gif Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.09 in ( Falling )

Indeed! the Bering Sea area does witness some of the most powerful storm systems.

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