BethesdaWX Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 And that's pretty consistent with temperatures last summer with the widespread heat concentrated in the southern and central U.S., although the heat was more widespread than one would expect solely on the NAO as some it spread northwards as well. I think it fell completely in line with what one would expect after a Strong Nino to Nina Transition, as Nino to Nina Summers have always been Notoriously Hot over the Lower 48. Kind of the "Anti-2009", in a sense. If this summer were to feature a neutral like NAO, maybe relatively weak, I'd think other factors would outweigh it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 Stepping aside from the soil moisture argument for a bit... I do not follow the part I quoted. Obviously this doesn't mean you cannot get a resurgence of la nina, but the most surprising thing about the MJO has been that it has avoided the "typical" nina phases more than p7-p8, which is one reason the nina has taken a hit, along with climatology favoring weakening ENSO events in the spring. Are you basing this off MJO activity alone? I agree the Nina mode isn't potent at this point, but any "hit" taken" doesn't seem all that Major regarding the atmospheric aspect. SOI has remained quite positive. http://www.longpaddo...30daysoivalues/ Total AAM down in the dumps....does not reflect a weakening Nina Mode Specifically I'm not yet familiar with how the Upper 7 Sigma Levels & the Lower 21 Sigma Levels can be used, but I'd think even a rookie like me could see that an El Nino is unlikely. Global Earth AAM tendancy not all that reflective of a flipping ENSO signal, although I'm not sure it can be used for that purpose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 Stepping aside from the soil moisture argument for a bit... I do not follow the part I quoted. Obviously this doesn't mean you cannot get a resurgence of la nina, but the most surprising thing about the MJO has been that it has avoided the "typical" nina phases more than p7-p8, which is one reason the nina has taken a hit, along with climatology favoring weakening ENSO events in the spring. It looks like the MJO never is making it all the way into Phase 8 though, and that last WWB didn't really have the momentum to push into the ENSO regions. GFS ENS show the MJO staying in the circle of death for a while before potentially trying to make a move: It seems to be lacking the final push to kill the Niña, that's what I meant. And that's pretty consistent with temperatures last summer with the widespread heat concentrated in the southern and central U.S., although the heat was more widespread than one would expect solely on the NAO as some it spread northwards as well. I was actually thinking we'd see a more positive/neutral NAO this summer with a vortex over North-Central Canada and perhaps a ridge towards Iceland. However, I was mostly banking on the EPO/AK block bringing down some colder air for the Northern Tier as it did last year in MT where I was...with that area of low heights over the Northern Tier and the dry soil factor over the South, you'd be left with a pretty strong ridge/trough configuration regardless of what the NAO does. Everyone tries to make NAO summer correlations but I find the effects can be pretty variable during the warm season. For example, 2010 was a -NAO summer and most of the country (south and north) was warmer than average. 2009 was a -NAO summer and most of the Northeast had a record cold summer, especially July. July 2009 was the coldest July on record in Pennsylvania! So what makes the difference? Here is one summer I was looking at, does have the -NAO but also the AK block.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 2010 was just a torch summer but it definitely had the -NAO gradient with the greatest heat in the south. Obviously some other factor was driving the warmth but the NAO helped keep the north more moderate but torched the south. As for you suggesting the cold northeast in 2009 was inconsistent with the -NAO.. that is perfectly consistent. A -NAO in summer produces a cold northern tier. That's exactly what was seen in 2009. Cold north warm south... classic -NAO summer pattern. The correlations as Wes pointed out are pretty strong... the NAO in summer clearly affects the pattern strongly even if it is not the #1 factor. If you are now saying the NAO will be neutral then I could see the pattern you are forecasting, but with a +NAO and near permanent Baffin vortex you were describing before I think that would be very difficult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 2010 was just a torch summer but it definitely had the -NAO gradient with the greatest heat in the south. Obviously some other factor was driving the warmth but the NAO helped keep the north more moderate but torched the south. As for you suggesting the cold northeast in 2009 was inconsistent with the -NAO.. that is perfectly consistent. A -NAO in summer produces a cold northern tier. That's exactly what was seen in 2009. Cold north warm south... classic -NAO summer pattern. The correlations as Wes pointed out are pretty strong... the NAO in summer clearly affects the pattern strongly even if it is not the #1 factor. If you are now saying the NAO will be neutral then I could see the pattern you are forecasting, but with a +NAO and near permanent Baffin vortex you were describing before I think that would be very difficult. If you're referring to me, Actually I was saying that 2009 was a Cool Summer, that it was consistant with a Transition to a strong Nino after a Nina Base for the previous 2 yrs. The Nina to Nino summers are notorious for being cold and wet. In 2010 the atmosphere seemed to be in a state of Chaos, the dying Strong Nino definitely had an impact on the Synoptic pattern over the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 2010 was just a torch summer but it definitely had the -NAO gradient with the greatest heat in the south. Obviously some other factor was driving the warmth but the NAO helped keep the north more moderate but torched the south. As for you suggesting the cold northeast in 2009 was inconsistent with the -NAO.. that is perfectly consistent. A -NAO in summer produces a cold northern tier. That's exactly what was seen in 2009. Cold north warm south... classic -NAO summer pattern. The correlations as Wes pointed out are pretty strong... the NAO in summer clearly affects the pattern strongly even if it is not the #1 factor. If you are now saying the NAO will be neutral then I could see the pattern you are forecasting, but with a +NAO and near permanent Baffin vortex you were describing before I think that would be very difficult. Well I don't think the NAO will be a strong signal either way this summer...since February we've basically seen occasional shots of blocking amidst a general weak +NAO regime; I don't see any reason for this to break down too much unless a new forcing acts on the pattern, like El Niño or a sudden change in the low solar activity. But if we stay in this global regime, I think we'll get a generally up-and-down look where it only ends up being a tertiary factor or something. I could see the Northern Tier being cool anyway with a more neutral/positive NAO if the vortex sets up in the right spot relative to the amplified EPO block we've been seeing, or whatever you want to call the Aleutian ridge. Here is what the NAO has been doing lately: As I say though, these are only preliminary guesses/maps for the summer, and I expect to make a lot of changes in the next month as I start to do more serious research. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 Well I don't think the NAO will be a strong signal either way this summer...since February we've basically seen occasional shots of blocking amidst a general weak +NAO regime I certainly wouldn't classify what we've seen since Feb as a weak +NAO regime.. it will end up close to a top 5 most +NAO FMA period since 1950. The NAO has averaged just a little below +1 and has been positive for 80/90 days using the model mean through the end of the month. It's rare to get three solidly +NAO months in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 I certainly wouldn't classify what we've seen since Feb as a weak +NAO regime.. it will end up close to a top 5 most +NAO FMA period since 1950. The NAO has averaged just a little below +1 and has been positive for 80/90 days using the model mean through the end of the month. It's rare to get three solidly +NAO months in a row. Are you sure about that? I know there were some crazy +NAOs in the 1980's and 90's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 Are you sure about that? I know there were some crazy +NAOs in the 1980's and 90's. Remember I said for the FMA period. Here are the top 6: 1990 1.623333333 1989 1.376666667 1992 1.266666667 2002 0.99 1994 0.953333333 2000 0.813333333 I calculate this FMA will come in around .8-.85. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 Here are the images showing shrinking low soil moisture areas in the eastern 2/3s of the U.S. The dry areas have shrunk and moved westwards toward west TX. VA/TN/KY/AL/n. GA have gotten wetter and the dryness has moderated in NC/SC s. GA. March Today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 The Soil Moisture models are predicting a colder summer overall in the lower 48, so, we'll see I guess. My untrained brain sees something like this. if it weren't for A few heatwaves along the East Coast, I'd extend the anoms into the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 The Soil Moisture models are predicting a colder summer overall in the lower 48, so, we'll see I guess. My untrained brain sees something like this Agree with map, I am also thinking about shifting the ridge westward as you have. Nonetheless, still an atypical look for a post-Niña summer. You seem to be taking into account some of the same factors as I. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 Agree with map, I am also thinking about shifting the ridge westward as you have. Nonetheless, still an atypical look for a post-Niña summer. You seem to be taking into account some of the same factors as I. Perhaps I am, I really don't have the desire to go into detail and fill up a page as you do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 2010 was just a torch summer but it definitely had the -NAO gradient with the greatest heat in the south. Obviously some other factor was driving the warmth but the NAO helped keep the north more moderate but torched the south. As for you suggesting the cold northeast in 2009 was inconsistent with the -NAO.. that is perfectly consistent. A -NAO in summer produces a cold northern tier. That's exactly what was seen in 2009. Cold north warm south... classic -NAO summer pattern. The correlations as Wes pointed out are pretty strong... the NAO in summer clearly affects the pattern strongly even if it is not the #1 factor. If you are now saying the NAO will be neutral then I could see the pattern you are forecasting, but with a +NAO and near permanent Baffin vortex you were describing before I think that would be very difficult. Exactly. The NAo remains the wild card this summer especially if the enso signal weakens. The negative Glaam does make me wonder how much it will weak though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 Agree with map, I am also thinking about shifting the ridge westward as you have. Nonetheless, still an atypical look for a post-Niña summer. You seem to be taking into account some of the same factors as I. His map looks pretty classic Nina to me, perhaps slightly more expansive heat in the SW and southern plains than the Nina climo I posted earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 His map looks pretty classic Nina to me, perhaps slightly more expansive heat in the SW and southern plains than the Nina climo I posted earlier. I only used -PDO phase yrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted April 23, 2011 Author Share Posted April 23, 2011 precipitation for the last 60 days and 1956, 1967 and 1996 Mar/Apr precipitation... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted April 23, 2011 Share Posted April 23, 2011 Agree with map, I am also thinking about shifting the ridge westward as you have. Nonetheless, still an atypical look for a post-Niña summer. You seem to be taking into account some of the same factors as I. Looking at post torch summer statistics as well as 2nd nina year climatology.... one would think the highest positive thermal deviations from normal for us would be in the early part of summer and perhaps even before.... somewhere in the late May thru June period. Bethesda..... there's two things that make me think this summer may be close to average for the northeast..... one is the fact that the early heat may offset what happens later and the other thing is, although we may not see anywhere nearly as many hot (90+) days as we do in a classic torch summer like what last summer was (my alltime favorite summer), we will partially offset that with higher humidity that results in higher mins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted April 23, 2011 Share Posted April 23, 2011 Looking at post torch summer statistics as well as 2nd nina year climatology.... one would think the highest positive thermal deviations from normal for us would be in the early part of summer and perhaps even before.... somewhere in the late May thru June period. Bethesda..... there's two things that make me think this summer may be close to average for the northeast..... one is the fact that the early heat may offset what happens later and the other thing is, although we may not see anywhere nearly as many hot (90+) days as we do in a classic torch summer like what last summer was (my alltime favorite summer), we will partially offset that with higher humidity that results in higher mins. Yeah I was thinking the exact same thing. My only worry is having gone too warm over the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 You don't think the +PDO phase could cause problems in those yrs? I remember doing an amatuer forecast a few yrs ago, and the +PDO analogs busted bad (1977 and afterwards, 2005 and before) One of the rare times you and I will agree. I am liking 1954, 1955, 1971 and 1974. 1967 followed a neutral-negative ENSO period, and 2008 followed a weaker Niña event. At that point also I believe we had just "flipped" to cold phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 8, 2011 Share Posted May 8, 2011 MEI Feb/Mar : -1.548 closest actuals 2008: -1.619 1956 : -1.399 1974: -1.769 1971: -1.811 1950: -1.287 Cloest trends 2011 -1.654 -1.552 -1.548 1956 -1.445 -1.306 -1. 1951 -1.069 -1.194 -1.216 1976 -1.614 -1.394 -1.251 1989 -1.144 -1.297 -1.051 1999 -1.109 -1.219 -1.043 2008 -.984 -1.389 -1.619 2000 -1.172 -1.228 -1.117 MEI Value mar/Apr: -1.495 closest actuals 1955: -1.556 1974: -1.684 1976 : -1.192 1956: -1.157 1967: -1.067 1999 : -1.026 Cloest trends 2011 -1.654 -1.552 -1.548 -1.495 1976 -1.614 -1.394 -1.251 -1.192 2008 -.984 -1.389 -1.619 -.945 1956 -1.445 -1.306 -1.399 -1.157 1999 -1.109 -1.219 -1.043 -1.026 1950 -1.046 -1.148 -1.287 -1.058 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 9, 2011 Author Share Posted May 9, 2011 MEI Value Feb/Mar : -1.495 closest actuals 1955: -1.556 1974: -1.684 1976 : -1.192 1956: -1.157 1967: -1.067 1999 : -1.026 Cloest trends 2011 -1.654 -1.552 -1.548 -1.495 1976 -1.614 -1.394 -1.251 -1.192 2008 -.984 -1.389 -1.619 -.945 1956 -1.445 -1.306 -1.399 -1.157 1999 -1.109 -1.219 -1.043 -1.026 1950 -1.046 -1.148 -1.287 -1.058 That should read Mar/Apr mei index... 1892-93 would be a great hurricane season analog...It was a second year la nina following a very snowy winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 Not looking at MEI but April's pattern was very '77 like for rainfall for east of the Mississippi. 1954 is a pretty good fit on temps and 500 mb anomalies but it doesn't fit on rainfall distribution..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 31, 2011 Author Share Posted May 31, 2011 I'm definitely leaning warmer than you guys, was thinking of Summer 1999 but with the heat a bit stronger in the Southern Plains and more normal temperatures in New England/Upper Mid-Atlantic: Haven't looked at it too carefully, just preliminary thoughts... I'm leaning towards a warmer Summer than I originally thought...I don't think it will be as hot as 1999 or 1955 but I wouldn't rule out another 100 degree heat wave in the northeast in July...May was warm in the east...I think this pattern continues into July at least... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 24, 2011 Author Share Posted July 24, 2011 I'm leaning towards a warmer Summer than I originally thought...I don't think it will be as hot as 1999 or 1955 but I wouldn't rule out another 100 degree heat wave in the northeast in July...May was warm in the east...I think this pattern continues into July at least... I was right...It's hotter than both those years...:axe:I was hoping those early analogs would pan out but the writing was on the wall it would not be a cool Summer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted July 24, 2011 Share Posted July 24, 2011 I'm leaning towards a warmer Summer than I originally thought...I don't think it will be as hot as 1999 or 1955 but I wouldn't rule out another 100 degree heat wave in the northeast in July...May was warm in the east...I think this pattern continues into July at least... Very nice call. So what are your thoughts on where we go from here? I'm wondering if we see a Floyd-like storm this year similar to 1999. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 25, 2011 Author Share Posted July 25, 2011 Very nice call. So what are your thoughts on where we go from here? I'm wondering if we see a Floyd-like storm this year similar to 1999. thanks...I didn't think it would top last year but it did...Sort of like the last two winters...I bet August sets some more heat records and the Summer will go down as one of the hottest on record...I imagine it stays on the dry side with that heat ridge in the middle of the country...We will need a Floyd by Summers end... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gibbsfreeenergy Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Wow, all my signals that I consider to be solid indicators at this lead time give me exactly opposite signs for this year vs 2010. But, that said, I failed winter so I could be wrong. LOL...anyway, weighting a year that was 1 stdev hotter than the previous record hottest year would seem to skew the map in one direction. Me Fail. 2010 FTW. I defer to Bob and Mark. The sad part is, I could feel the changes going on in April 2010 and certainly by mid May 2010...I was no where close to being hot enough. But this year, I really do not have any idea how I would go back and issue a different forecast. I have one idea that I should have done that would likely have limited the level of cool leaning CDD forecast I went with, but that would not have been a pattern driver per say...just a floor setter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Me Fail. 2010 FTW. I defer to Bob and Mark. The sad part is, I could feel the changes going on in April 2010 and certainly by mid May 2010...I was no where close to being hot enough. But this year, I really do not have any idea how I would go back and issue a different forecast. I have one idea that I should have done that would likely have limited the level of cool leaning CDD forecast I went with, but that would not have been a pattern driver per say...just a floor setter. -NAO/-AO, Resurgence of La Niña conditions, Drought/Soil moisture in the S/SE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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