uncle W Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 my top three Summer 2011 analogs are 1956, 1967 and 1996 as of today...If the Summer is like these it will be cooler than normal especially in the SE and warmer in the west......The hottest temperatures will come in May or June...Precipitation will be above normal along the mid Atlantic coast as far north as Long Island...Dry in Florida...1996 had a great hurricane season while 1956 and 1967 did not...Other analogs show a wetter than normal summer around NYC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 My favorites are 1910, 1917, 1956, and to a lesser degree 1974. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 I like 2008, similar in all regards, including Low Solar, Weakening Nina similar strength, +AMO/-PDO, Same Global Temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted April 6, 2011 Author Share Posted April 6, 2011 My favorites are 1910, 1917, 1956, and to a lesser degree 1974. 1910 1917 1956 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted April 6, 2011 Author Share Posted April 6, 2011 I like 2008, similar in all regards, including Low Solar, Weakening Nina similar strength, +AMO/-PDO, Same Global Temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 I'm definitely leaning warmer than you guys, was thinking of Summer 1999 but with the heat a bit stronger in the Southern Plains and more normal temperatures in New England/Upper Mid-Atlantic: Haven't looked at it too carefully, just preliminary thoughts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted April 7, 2011 Author Share Posted April 7, 2011 These are some of my column B analogs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 I'm definitely leaning warmer than you guys, was thinking of Summer 1999 but with the heat a bit stronger in the Southern Plains and more normal temperatures in New England/Upper Mid-Atlantic: Haven't looked at it too carefully, just preliminary thoughts... You don't think the +PDO phase could cause problems in those yrs? I remember doing an amatuer forecast a few yrs ago, and the +PDO analogs busted bad (1977 and afterwards, 2005 and before) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 My updated analogs [year (weight)]: 1956 (1), 1976 (1), 1999 (1), 2010 (3) Why 2010? Coming off of a similar looking winter compared to last year (temps), and the rebuilding of the SE ridge could keep temps on the warm side in the east much like last year (but certainly much more moderate this year compared to last year). It was also included to balance the precip. pattern I'm expecting, which has a wetter Plains and Midwest compared to the other analogs that show near normal to drier conditions in these areas. (map courtesy of MDA/EarthSat) Here's my summer forecast using my old analogs (not much different): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 My updated analogs [year (weight)]: 1956 (1), 1976 (1), 1999 (1), 2010 (3) Why 2010? Coming off of a similar looking winter compared to last year (temps), and the rebuilding of the SE ridge could keep temps on the warm side in the east much like last year (but certainly much more moderate this year compared to last year). It was also included to balance the precip. pattern I'm expecting, which has a wetter Plains and Midwest compared to the other analogs that show near normal to drier conditions in these areas. Using 2010 as an analog is very odd to me... not that you will be wrong (who knows at this lead time). I just cannot see any way to use it. But to use it and weight it as the top analog by far? That's even harder to fathom, but just my opinion. I think all the other years mentioned in this thread have some validity though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gibbsfreeenergy Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Wow, all my signals that I consider to be solid indicators at this lead time give me exactly opposite signs for this year vs 2010. But, that said, I failed winter so I could be wrong. LOL...anyway, weighting a year that was 1 stdev hotter than the previous record hottest year would seem to skew the map in one direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Using 2010 as an analog is very odd to me... not that you will be wrong (who knows at this lead time). I just cannot see any way to use it. But to use it and weight it as the top analog by far? That's even harder to fathom, but just my opinion. I think all the other years mentioned in this thread have some validity though. The reason why I chose 2010 is because of the overall synoptic pattern, with the key feature being the SE ridge and general troughing in the West (much like what we're seeing in the upcoming days). And again, going back to the previous winters we see a rather good comparison between 09-10 and 10-11, and I like to use past seasonal analogs in determining future pattens. The big difference this season will be the extensive drought over the South, which will help boost + anomalies in that region. EDIT: Also, as a very loose argument (more of a point than an argument, really), "look at what happened to last winter with a strong Nina." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 I think people posting JJA analog maps should posts JFM analog maps for the same years. I don't have my own analogs, I just follow the reasoning given by others for theirs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 The reason why I choose 2010 is because of the overall synoptic pattern, with the key feature being the SE ridge and general troughing in the West (much like what we're seeing in the upcoming days). And again, going back to the previous winters we see a rather good comparison between 09-10 and 10-11, and I like to use past seasonal analogs in determining future pattens. The big difference this season will be the extensive drought over the South, which will help boost + anomalies in that region. EDIT: Also, as a very loose argument (more of a point than an argument, really), "look at what happened to last winter with a strong Nina." Why does the pattern now have to last all summer though? This spring so far (Mar 1 to present) has been total opposite of last year, so I don't see the connection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 I think people posting JJA analog maps should posts JFM analog maps for the same years. I don't have my own analogs, I just follow the reasoning given by others for theirs. You mean show how those analogs did this past winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Why does the pattern now have to last all summer though? This spring so far (Mar 1 to present) has been total opposite of last year, so I don't see the connection. It doesn't have to necessarily be the pattern all summer long, but I do think we'll see bigger warmth with periods of weak belows moving across the southern and eastern parts of the region. I really just used the recent 1-5 day forecast to highlight my overall thinking, but I don't put much weight to spring/fall correlations since these are transitional seasons that can vary wildly. Also, if you head to the US Drought Monitor page, you can see the drier areas in the South and East that will help drive these warmer anomalies should it carry into the summer months, which I am expecting it to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanbob Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Ellinwood's analogs for prior DJF Period: Last Winter: You mean show how those analogs did this past winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gibbsfreeenergy Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 I just look at the SUCK IT index for summer and determine its sign come the end of May: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted April 7, 2011 Author Share Posted April 7, 2011 I think people posting JJA analog maps should posts JFM analog maps for the same years. I don't have my own analogs, I just follow the reasoning given by others for theirs. DJF for my analogs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 You mean show how those analogs did this past winter? Yup. I want to see hindcast skill/correlation to actual paterns before I pick my favorite form those listed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gibbsfreeenergy Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Does the winter pattern really give you good analogs that you can roll forward into summer? If so, all we would have to do is find matches to DJF or N-M pattern and composite that for summer. Pretty sure its not that simple. Plus, alot of the footprints left by the winter pattern are signals of where we were, not where we are going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Does the winter pattern really give you good analogs that you can roll forward into summer? In a word, no. Clues, sure, but very very rarely will you be able to match the U.S. temp pattern, and then have those analogs give you the answer for summer. Same with summer analogs for the following winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 In a word, no. Clues, sure, but very very rarely will you be able to match the U.S. temp pattern, and then have those analogs give you the answer for summer. Same with summer analogs for the following winter. I find that it's more effective to look at the physical forcing likely for the upcoming season (i.e., probable PDO, AMO, ENSO state) then search for analogs which fit the criteria for expected modality/intensity of global oscillations/teleconnections (as opposed to just rolling forward analogs w/ no regard for changes in physical atmospheric states). Even still, once the similar years are found, sometimes it's better to focus on 1 or 2 years rather than blending together a whole slew, using the composite for a forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted April 7, 2011 Author Share Posted April 7, 2011 I picked my analogs from years that had above average snowfall in the winter and a previous hot summer...They were la nina or weak negatives that rose to neutral by the Summer but dropped back to weak negative by the next winter...If an el nino develops my analogs might be toast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 In a word, no. Clues, sure, but very very rarely will you be able to match the U.S. temp pattern, and then have those analogs give you the answer for summer. Same with summer analogs for the following winter. True that. The "past verification" method is only part of the process, and it really is more for validating the analogs used in the forecast (to an extent) once you've found the years you like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 My updated analogs [year (weight)]: 1956 (1), 1976 (1), 1999 (1), 2010 (3) Why 2010? Coming off of a similar looking winter compared to last year (temps), and the rebuilding of the SE ridge could keep temps on the warm side in the east much like last year (but certainly much more moderate this year compared to last year). It was also included to balance the precip. pattern I'm expecting, which has a wetter Plains and Midwest compared to the other analogs that show near normal to drier conditions in these areas. Why is the Southeast Ridge "rebuilding?" The ridge has been predominately over the Southwest and southern Plains. Yes, there will be times of a 2-day warm shot to the East, but I wouldn't call this a rebuilding SE ridge. Heck the term "rebuilding" doesn't seem to fit with what has been occurring. I agree with Brian. 2010 is a terrible analog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 Some analogs I've kind of came up with so far going by ENSO/MEI/SOI are 1976, 1989, and 2008. Not saying that these will be my analogs but this is what I have so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 Ellinwood, is there any reason you have 2008 excluded? Maybe I'm missing something, I'm obviously no Met, but 2008 seems like a strong contender to me, has the -PDO/+AMO/low solar/Matching Global Temps/ENSO, etc. Colder anomalies over the Great Lakes/interior NE/Apps, and Warmth in the SW US/interior West and Immediate East Coast seem very plausible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 MEI Feb/Mar : -1.548 closest actuals 2008: -1.619 1956 : -1.399 1974: -1.769 1971: -1.811 1950: -1.287 Cloest trends 2011 -1.654 -1.552 -1.548 1956 -1.445 -1.306 -1. 1951 -1.069 -1.194 -1.216 1976 -1.614 -1.394 -1.251 1989 -1.144 -1.297 -1.051 1999 -1.109 -1.219 -1.043 2008 -.984 -1.389 -1.619 2000 -1.172 -1.228 -1.117 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 Why is the Southeast Ridge "rebuilding?" The ridge has been predominately over the Southwest and southern Plains. Yes, there will be times of a 2-day warm shot to the East, but I wouldn't call this a rebuilding SE ridge. Heck the term "rebuilding" doesn't seem to fit with what has been occurring. I agree with Brian. 2010 is a terrible analog. Do you think that ridge over the Southern Plains will start to expand as the warm season matures, making its way to the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic eventually in a similar progression to 1988? Or will the cold fronts keep knocking it down so it never gets permanently established? Here was what I was thinking in terms of summer temperature anomalies but I haven't researched it much at all, just throwing out a rough guess...I was thinking we might see some sort of Aleutian ridge/GOA trough, a slight ridge over the West Coast/SW, and then a trough over the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest with some cold air pouring down from the -EPO configuration assuming the Niña holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.