IsentropicLift Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 With a potent cold front moving through the region overnight into Tuesday morning, the stage will be set for showers and possibly our first legit shot at some severe weather...discuss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 With a potent cold front moving through the region overnight into Tuesday morning, the stage will be set for showers and possibly our first legit shot at some severe weather...discuss. Highly doubtful that there will be severe weather in our area given the lack of atmospheric instability. Thunderstorms are certainly a possibility overnight but the frontal timing is extremely poor (6-12z) for convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 There definitely is the potential for something over Central and Eastern PA though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 With a potent cold front moving through the region overnight into Tuesday morning, the stage will be set for showers and possibly our first legit shot at some severe weather...discuss. the thunderstorms we saw with the snowfall this winter will be more impressive than anything you see overnight. This is a non-event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 4, 2011 Author Share Posted April 4, 2011 There definitely is the potential for something over Central and Eastern PA though Hard to believe that line wouldn't be packing a good punch as it reached our western zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 Hard to believe that line wouldn't be packing a good punch as it reached our western zones. Not really, the severe weather threat is rather low overnight as most models show no elevated instability. The severe weather threat near the cold front is actually pretty low in our area, too, with poor frontal timing. 925mb winds are pretty impressive with a strengthening low level jet, but the low level inversion that develops overnight should put a lid on the damaging wind potential. The boundary layer rooted convection should be mostly isolated to areas to our south and west, and even there it should be relatively low topped and not widespread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 4, 2011 Author Share Posted April 4, 2011 From Mt. Holly AFD SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A RIBBON OF INSTABILITY RUNNING 1 TO 3 HOURS AHEAD THE SURFACE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. THIS INSTABILITY COULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW A SCATTERED TO BROKEN LINE OF BOUNDARY LAYERED ROOTED CONVECTION TO FORM. AT THIS DISTANCE...IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THE CONVECTIVE LINE WOULD BE ONGOING SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA...WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER. HOWEVER...THIS LOOKS LIKE A HIGH SHEAR/LOW INSTABILITY TYPE OF CONVECTIVE EVENT...AS THE CONVECTION DEVELOPS NORTHEAST ON THE INSTABILITY RIBBON BETWEEN 0900 UTC AND 1500 UTC TUESDAY. THE CONVECTION ITSELF SHOULD BE FAIRLY COMPACT...WITH LOW TOPS AND POTENTIALLY NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF LIGHTNING...AS TOPS MAY NOT REACH MINUS 20 CELSIUS...ALLOWING FOR CHARGE SEPARATION TO BEGIN. AS SUCH...THE FORCED CONVECTIVE LINE MAY HAVE LITTLE LIGHTNING. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION WOULD BE ABLE TO ACCESS THE STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS (BULK SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 80 KNOTS IS FORECAST IN THE TIMEFRAME OUTLINED ABOVE)...AND A LINE OF STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 From Mt. Holly AFD AT THIS DISTANCE...IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THE CONVECTIVE LINE WOULD BE ONGOING SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA...WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER. They specifically state the best chance is southwest of their area, and their CWA is already southwest of our area. I think you are reaching, the parameters are not there for severe weather if you ask me...not buying it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 They specifically state the best chance is southwest of their area, and their CWA is already southwest of our area. I think you are reaching, the parameters are not there for severe weather if you ask me...not buying it. Bingo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 4, 2011 Author Share Posted April 4, 2011 They specifically state the best chance is southwest of their area, and their CWA is already southwest of our area. I think you are reaching, the parameters are not there for severe weather if you ask me...not buying it. they mentioned that convection would fire NE ahead of the cold front. We shall see what happens. Definitly not a widespread severe event but strong gusty winds can't be ruled out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 they mentioned that convection would fire NE ahead of the cold front. We shall see what happens. Definitly not a widespread severe event but strong gusty winds can't be ruled out. strong gusty winds can't be ruled out walking behind an old lady either. Fact of the matter is the chances of anything being left over by the time it actually reaches our forecast area, not one to the SW are VERY minimal, like earthlight says. Even if there are some winds (also unlikely with the inversion) they won't be severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 4, 2011 Author Share Posted April 4, 2011 strong convection already ongoing in western PA, this is going to be a fun day to watch the show west of us. http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=PBZ&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 4, 2011 Author Share Posted April 4, 2011 Well....the WRF is definitly not impressed.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 the thunderstorms we saw with the snowfall this winter will be more impressive than anything you see overnight. This is a non-event. No jeb-walks in the thunder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 No jeb-walks in the thunder? Storms are petering out over Central PA...it's nighttime, instability is limited, and light east winds are dominating near the coast, allowing for the marine layer to enter. I think we'll probably see .1-.2" rain with the frontal passage from that line of showers to our west, no big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 Storms are petering out over Central PA...it's nighttime, instability is limited, and light east winds are dominating near the coast, allowing for the marine layer to enter. I think we'll probably see .1-.2" rain with the frontal passage from that line of showers to our west, no big deal. Agree, terrible timing for T-storm lovers (12z FROPA). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx.1028 Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 Wonder if this line will make it into the metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 Wonder if this line will make it into the metro area. I think it will weaken somewhat when it runs into more stable or marine airmass over NYC and LI, right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx.1028 Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 I think it will weaken somewhat when it runs into more stable or marine airmass over NYC and LI, right now. Looks too be losing its punch right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 Looks too be losing its punch right now. Yep, they are already falling apart over Western NJ. They might not be much than showers over NE NJ and NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 5, 2011 Author Share Posted April 5, 2011 Heavy rain here in Riverdale, cell is just brushing here to the north. I heard a few rumbles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx.1028 Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 Heavy rain here in Riverdale, cell is just brushing here to the north. I heard a few rumbles. brief rain shower here. nothing spectacular Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 5, 2011 Author Share Posted April 5, 2011 It ended quickly. Now its just rain on 287. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 5, 2011 Author Share Posted April 5, 2011 What a difference an hour can make on radar. At about 6:30 when I woke up that line was very well organized and looked like it was going to pack quite the punch. Now it's been reduced to a few scattered showers. Nice job by most of the models picking up on that. Still wouldn't call this a non-event. Lightning made it about 30 miles west of the city and the fact that almost all of NJ was under a watch makes the severe threat we had legit, even though for the most part it didn't verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 non event to me, just a couple of sprinkles, bust compared to what was hyped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 5, 2011 Author Share Posted April 5, 2011 I don't think too many people really hyped this up, but the radar did look impressive earlier this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 5, 2011 Author Share Posted April 5, 2011 Co-worker of mine that just got in from Orange County reported gusty winds, thunder, lightning and a brief heavy downpour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx.1028 Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 I don't think too many people really hyped this up, but the radar did look impressive earlier this morning. Agreed. earlier this morning radar looked pretty impressive over SE PA. with 60+ MPH. wind gusts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 I know Atlanta was getting on my nerves last night via Twitter, I heard it was terrible though. Looking at the radar last night I didn't think we'd have a remote chance but it got gusty with moderate rain. Interesting how this line of thunderstorms storms stretched like 700-900 miles, I never really saw that before. Like a mega squall line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 Cold front passed through Blairstown at 9:24am. Went from a calm SW wind to a strong NW wind gusting to 20mph with a temperature drop from 55 to 48 in about 10 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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