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April 4-5 Severe and general obs/disc


Ellinwood

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Afternoon AFD from LWX

WITH SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE POTENT UPPER TROUGH AND

SFC COLD FRONT REMAINING TO THE WEST AND STRONG CAPPING INVERSIONS

BETWEEN IN THE MID LVLS...UPSTREAM CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF

THE AREA THRU THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVE. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT

SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY CLIPPING THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND WRN MD

DURING THE LATE AFTN/ERY EVE AS A PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROUGH NEARS THE

NWRN CWA.

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE OH/TN VLYS WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE

CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AROUND MIDNIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVE THRU THE CWA

DURING THE OVNGT/ERY MRNG HRS. DESPITE CONVECTION CROSSING THE

REGION DURING AN UNFAVORABLE TIME FOR SVR WX /WITH THE LOSS OF

DAYTIME HEATING/ VERY STRONG WIND/SHEAR PROFILES AND A NARROW TONGUE

OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL WARRANT A RISK FOR

SVR WX LOW-TOPPED TSTMS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS WITH

SECONDARY THREATS BEING ISO HAIL/TORNADOES ALONG AND WEST OF THE

BLUE RIDGE. WITH 70-80 KT LLVL JET STREAK ONLY A FEW THOUSAND FEET

ABOVE THE SFC...IT WONT TAKE MUCH TO BRING SOME OF THOSE WINDS DOWN

TO THE SFC.

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I'm quite aware of over-performing temps... just didn't think winds from 200 deg. was gonna do it (not as much downsloping as a WSW wind). It's just really effin dry on its own, which lead to the +++ temps.

EDIT: BWI also has one of the biggest departures from MOS in the region.

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I'm quite aware of over-performing temps... just didn't think winds from 200 deg. was gonna do it (not as much downsloping as a WSW wind). It's just really effin dry on its own, which lead to the +++ temps.

EDIT: BWI also has one of the biggest departures from MOS in the region.

850s are pretty warm

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this stuff is hauling .. not sure it's going to hold off as long as the models were showing though i guess these lines speed up more often than slowing down.

It almost looks like the flow is trying to back, maybe another low will form along the frontal boundary.

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this stuff is hauling .. not sure it's going to hold off as long as the models were showing though i guess these lines speed up more often than slowing down.

I guess that's a good thing...earlier the better perhaps?

Although - SPC has a new mesoscale disco out saying no WW is expected in our area. Not surprising. I just want some nice thunderstorms.

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