CUmet Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Unless the moisture isn't rich enough and there is a shallow non-capping CIN layer. Then, they may be rooted above that. Yeah that's a good point. I do have some questions regarding the moisture depth for this, so that indeed may turn out to be the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Yeah that's a good point. I do have some questions regarding the moisture depth for this, so that indeed may turn out to be the case. We're probably about pushing the limit on the models as far as moisture quality/depth this time of year. What we're seeing now would match or exceed some infamous April dates in the past. I'm curious to see how well the models will perform in this regard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fred Gossage Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 We're probably about pushing the limit on the models as far as moisture quality/depth this time of year. What we're seeing now would match or exceed some infamous April dates in the past. I'm curious to see how well the models will perform in this regard. Yeah, the moisture quality/depth for this early in the season for this far north would probably be really good.... if we weren't likely to get quite so warm at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Yeah, the moisture quality/depth for this early in the season for this far north would probably be really good.... if we weren't likely to get quite so warm at the surface. The northward extent is pretty remarkable. To put it in perspective, dewpoints only made it to the low-mid 60's here on 2 well-known April days 9 years apart which won't be mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 The northward extent is pretty remarkable. To put it in perspective, dewpoints only made it to the low-mid 60's here on 2 well-known April days 9 years apart which won't be mentioned. Mention them because my brain is forgetting them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Mention them because my brain is forgetting them. April of '65 and '74? Thats just a guess, I've been drinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 April of '65 and '74? Thats just a guess, I've been drinking. Man that was a bad one too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 April of '65 and '74? Thats just a guess, I've been drinking. You done did it. I was only comparing from a moisture perspective and nothing else. I'm sure it's happened other times but the point is that it doesn't occur very often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Man that was a bad one too... Thats how my head feels! And yes, they both were. Im going to look into the simlilarites here in a minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 You done did it. I was only comparing from a moisture perspective and nothing else. I'm sure it's happened other times but the point is that it doesn't occur very often. My bad! I was trying to remember for my sake since you mentioned it. I get what your saying though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Euro still has 70 degree temps up toward the IN/MI border at 6z Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Euro still has 70 degree temps up toward the IN/MI border at 6z Monday. Thus my concern for Sunday Night overnight for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 30% non hatched for Saturday DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0229 AM CDT THU APR 07 2011 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE LOWER OH VALLEY SEWD TO ERN GA...SC AND WRN/SRN NC... ..ERN PORTION OF CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY 00Z GFS/ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT AS COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW DAYS SHOWING THE WRN TROUGH BECOMING PROGRESSIVE ON SATURDAY AND REACHING THE SRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES TO NRN HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z SUNDAY. A BAND OF STRONG SWLY MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE SWRN STATES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IN THE LOW LEVELS...LEE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED ACROSS ERN CO THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER NEB /LIKELY ATTENDANT TO A LEAD IMPULSE/ MOVES INTO SRN MN BY 12Z SUNDAY. STRENGTHENING SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL ADVECT MOISTURE NWD...WHILE A WARM FRONT MOVES FROM THE LOWER MO VALLEY TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THE GREATEST MOISTURE RETURN WILL RESIDE E OF A DRY LINE EXTENDING FROM THE NEB LOW SWD THROUGH CENTRAL OK TO CENTRAL TX. A PLUME OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES EXTENDING NEWD ATOP THE MOISTURE RETURN WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY...WITH GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS SHOWING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM MID-LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE DRY LINE IN NRN OK TO THE MID MO VALLEY. STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 50-70 KT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/SPREAD NEWD TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LLJ VEERS AND STRENGTHENS TO 60 KT WITH A CONTINUED LIKELIHOOD FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. ..LOWER OH VALLEY SEWD TO ERN GA/CAROLINAS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE WEAK IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS ON FRIDAY SHOULD TRACK SEWD FROM THE MID MS VALLEY WITHIN 40-50 KT NWLY FLOW ALOFT REACHING THE CAROLINAS BY EARLY EVENING AND THEN MOVING OFFSHORE. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM MO ESEWD INTO KY AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM DAY 2 CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THIS REGION WILL BE THE FOCI FOR NEW TSTMS ON SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN ON DAY 2 /FRI/ INTO THESE REGIONS WILL CONTINUE ON DAY 3 /SAT/ WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S ACROSS THIS SLIGHT RISK AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH DIABATIC HEATING AND 7-7.5 C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY /UP TO 1500-2000 J PER KG/. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 50 KT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR... HIGHER PROBABILITIES MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER OUTLOOKS...BUT UNCERTAINTY IN PRIMARY FOCUS AREAS PRECLUDES THIS INCLUSION AT THIS TIME. ..PETERS.. 04/07/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Assuming we see better consensus build in the next day (as far as timing), anyone think we might see the rare day 3 moderate risk tomorrow night? Already had an NWS met think this will be a high risk weekend.(He posted on his Fb page.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Looking at things more closely, I really cannot get excited about the Saturday potential. IA is near the crest of the ridge, which historically is a good area for parameters but not so good of an area for convective initiation. I see no dynamic shortwaves or what-not in the vicinity. The cap is by no means negligible, and this is with the model bias of underdoing the cap this far out. I am, however, confident of initiation along the dry line along KS and srn NE. Models continue to hint at convective initiation along the dry line and the ECM paints a nice lead s/w that hinges upon the warm sector at 0Z. The highly mixed boundary layer would argue against significant tornadic activity, but this may end up being one of the better Plains supercell shows this year thus far. (Friday may end up being a nice 1-2 supercell show too with convective initiation hinted at for days. Again though tornadic potential would be minimal with the well-mixed boundary layer.) Sunday looks like a squall line day but weak VV's on the GFS, last system's performance with less than ideal wind profiles, and it still being several days out makes this low confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 LOT AFD - IZZI ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO THE HUGE STORM SYSTEM OUT WEST THAT HAS ME FULL ON METEOROLOGICALLY TINGLY AS ALL GET OUT THIS MORNING (ABOUT AN 8 ON A SCALE OF 10 TINGLES)! SYSTEM IS ALREADY VERY IMPRESSIVE LOOKING ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OFF THE PAC NW COAST WITH POCKET OF VERY COLD AIR ALOFT (-37C @ 500MB AT 00Z AT CYZT) RESULTING IN FAIRLY VIGOROUS CONVECTION WITH NUMEROUS CG LIGHTNING STRIKES. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING ON DIGGING THIS POWERFUL CLOSED COLD CORE LOW SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH 500MB HEIGHTS PROGGED TO REACH NEARLY 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW AVERAGE (ESSENTIALLY LIKELY RECORD OR NEAR RECORD LOW 500MB HEIGHTS IF SUCH RECORDS WERE KEPT). DOWNSTREAM OF THIS ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH IMPRESSIVE HEIGHT RISES WITH STRONG UPPER RIDGING EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. LIKELY RESULTING IN RECORD/NEAR RECORD WARMTH OVER PORTIONS OF THE U.S. OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH H8 TEMPS PROGGED TO CLIMB TO 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE AVERAGE. WARM FRONTOGENESIS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SHARPENING TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT. WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND SFC PRESSURE FALLS TO THE NORTHWEST WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WARM FRONT TRYING TO LIFT NORTHWARD SATURDAY...HOWEVER EAST WINDS OF THE FRIGID LAKE WATERS WILL LIKELY RETARD ITS NORTHWARD ADVANCE SATURDAY. VERY LARGE TEMP GRADIENT EXPECTED ACROSS CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS LIKELY HOLDING IN THE 40S NEAR IL LAKESHORE WHILE SOUTHERN MOST CWA COULD FLIRT WITH 80F! STRENGTHENING PRESSURE FALLS TO THE NORTH AHEAD OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN WARM FRONT ACCELERATING NORTHWARD AND ENTIRE CWA RIGHT UP TO THE NORTHSHORE GETTING INTO THE WARM SECTOR. HAVE BUMPED UP HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR SUNDAY...AND IF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ISNT MORE EXTENSIVE EVEN THOSE FORECAST HIGHS MAY BE CONSERVATIVE. RECORD HIGHS ARE IN THE LOWER 90S AND EXPECT THAT THEY WILL LIKELY BE OUT OF REACH... SYNOPTIC SET-UP HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO FAVOR MULTI-DAY AND POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK...FIRST OVER THE PLAINS WITH THE THREAT LIKELY TO SPREAD EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SUNDAY. ITD BE SILLY TO GET HUNG UP ON TOO MANY DETAILS THIS FAR OUT...BUT 4+ DAYS OF SOLID RETURN FLOW FROM THE ALREADY RE-CHARGING GULF OF MEXICO...STRONG/EXTREME LOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH UNSEASONABLY STRONG/COLD UPPER LOW...COMBINED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEALTHY EML ADVECTING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALL SCREAM FOR THE POTENTIAL OF WIDESPREAD/POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT MULTI-DAY SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE. MAGNITUDE AND TYPE OF SEVERE THREAT LOCALLY WILL LIKELY DEPEND SOMEWHAT ON TIMING OF SYSTEM...WITH CURRENT TIMING LOOKING LIKE SUNDAY EVENING. MAGNITUDE OF SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHAT DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH SLOWLY WANING...THOUGH GIVEN THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM...STILL PRESENT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WELL INTO THE NIGHT. UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO BE SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER COMPACT NATURE OF THE NEGATIVELY TILTED CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION KEEPS ME LEARY OF A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT LINGERING WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS SUNDAY. IZZI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Haha, gotta love his AFDs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Saturday looks like a solid moderate risk IMO with a high end moderate or high risk possible on Sunday - either for tornadoes or damaging winds or a combo of both depending on how the evolution of this system plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Not quite as excited about the setup as I was yesterday, but can see both Sat and Sun being MDT risk days. The strengthening LLJ should kick off stuff in the vicinity of IA, though probably late enough where mostly it is elevated in nature. Sunday I can see capping issues until the height falls really come in, which probably results in supercells initially, but may quickly congeal into a line... still could easily be worth of MDT risk though. Obviously much can and probably will change over the next couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 EHI off of the 00z NAM for Saturday Evening/Night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Last one for now - EHI off of the 00z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Anyone in Northern Indiana should know that date immediately. Yup, and now living here in Elkhart Dunlap and with a Sunday date so close to the 11th, this isn't comfortable. For us here in IN April 11th and April 3 always send shivers of recognition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 This 300 mb wind field for Sunday afternoon from this Thurs. morning NAM is just scary. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_300_078m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Got a question for some NWS mets here. I know planned budget cuts threaten some NWS procedures and projects, but would a government shutdown tomorrow affect mets at NWS offices for this weekend and upcoming svr weather events? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 It looks to me from a quick glance at just NAM precip forecasts not a lot happens South of the latitude of ORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 SW. Iowa Saturday evening... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 12z NAM has extremely high amounts of CAPE (between 4000 and 5000) from Eastern/Northeastern Kansas, Northern Missouri, Southern Iowa and far Western Illinois on Saturday Evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Could be some significant moisture depth issues on Saturday across the four-state corner region of NE/KS/MO/IA. Looks like the moisture depth there is pretty shallow to begin with, and an EML surge in the wake of a mid level s/w causes it to mix out big time during the heat of the day. A strengthening synoptic LLJ looks to help replenish some of that in the late afternoon, but it's hard to tell whether that will be enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 http://www.washingto...MKHrC_blog.html Thanks, Beau. This info is good to know with looming threats on the horizon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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