Stebo Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 This was one of them: Substantial difference with the trough though with the upcoming one being more amplified. Anyone in Northern Indiana should know that date immediately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Anyone in Northern Indiana should know that date immediately. Any severe freak should know that date immediately. That went on to have an OBSERVED value of 135 knots on the 00z Apr 12 Peoria sounding...absolutely stunning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Assuming we see better consensus build in the next day (as far as timing), anyone think we might see the rare day 3 moderate risk tomorrow night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Assuming we see better consensus build in the next day (as far as timing), anyone think we might see the rare day 3 moderate risk tomorrow night? I think if there is ever a time it will come out again, this could be it. If not you are going to probably see one of the strongest worded slight risks coming out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 The shear looks pretty unidirectional on Sunday on the new GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 I like that! Your talk of Kansas made me but then I Your chaser card just got revoked for saying this, FYI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 This GFS forecast sounding for just west of Burlington Iowa on Saturday evening is sexy as hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 I think if there is ever a time it will come out again, this could be it. If not you are going to probably see one of the strongest worded slight risks coming out. Thought process is that ongoing convection will be less of a concern than usual. I would think a 30% hatched at the bare minimum but what do I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Your chaser card just got revoked for saying this, FYI. Dont get me wrong, I'd love to chase KS, but not really this time of the year. I'd like to wait a little while for prime season, but who knows, gas may just get more expensive...sighh. Time to make bank again in storm footage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Thought process is that ongoing convection will be less of a concern than usual. I would think a 30% hatched at the bare minimum but what do I know. No I agree, that is the absolute minimum right now, anything else would be a shock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 7, 2011 Author Share Posted April 7, 2011 The shear looks pretty unidirectional on Sunday on the new GFS. Ya but the wind fields are insane, 100kts at H5 with a 60kt LLJ coupled with slighty backed sfc winds and near mid 60's dew points in the warm sector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 The shear looks pretty unidirectional on Sunday on the new GFS. There's a corridor where the surface winds try to back but the flow aloft looks fairly backed as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 7, 2011 Author Share Posted April 7, 2011 This GFS forecast sounding for just west of Burlington Iowa on Saturday evening is sexy as hell. Red Oak, IA is better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fred Gossage Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 No I agree, that is the absolute minimum right now, anything else would be a shock. It needs to be. Don't know about all that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackjack123 Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Thought process is that ongoing convection will be less of a concern than usual. I would think a 30% hatched at the bare minimum but what do I know. I hope there ends up being at least a 15% hatched area for strong tornadoes on Sunday. At this point I know it would be hard to tell but just hoping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Ya but the wind fields are insane, 100kts at H5 with a 60kt LLJ coupled with slighty backed sfc winds and near mid 60's dew points in the warm sector. Oh yeah, definitely. The mid level winds are exceptional. Taking the 00z GFS verbatim would you consider that to be very conducive for tornadoes? Either way, at the minimum it looks like a major severe weather outbreak is on the way for Sunday. With better wind shear the potential for a major tornado outbreak is certainly for real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 I wish the GFS (and most models for that matter) could get its cool temp bias in these situations rectified. Makes things more difficult to figure out. GFS model temps have me around 70 at 00z Monday...I suspect reality will be more like 80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 I wish the GFS (and most models for that matter) could get its cool temp bias in these situations rectified. Makes things more difficult to figure out. GFS model temps have me around 70 at 00z Monday...I suspect reality will be more like 80. Yeah, they definitely seem to bust low on surface temps this time of the year. Sunday is without a doubt not an exception. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Yeah, they definitely seem to bust low on surface temps this time of the year. Sunday is without a doubt not an exception. Yeah, Saturday actually looks correct for the most part with respect to temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 7, 2011 Author Share Posted April 7, 2011 That is an impressive wave to say the least coupled with good moisture and a stronger sfc low on this run than the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 I'm uneasy as to where this is going. Saturday looks like a big day for south-central and SW IA. I mean how often do you see CAPE as high as what is being indicated on Saturday along the IA/MO/IL border area in April? Even overdone, it's pretty remarkable. And with the jet dynamics, S-central/SE IA along the warm front looks big. Sunday is just interesting. Even with more backed winds aloft, you're going to have sufficient turning for supercells and tornadoes. And the GFS keeps instability at least near-sfc based well into the night, even up here. By then, a QLCS should be going, but I don't see the tornado threat magically stopping after sunset. The threat area is huge, basically from WI down to LA and points E. I'm not ready to put a potential ceiling on this. The models have largely been inconsistent of late, but I've got an uneasy feeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Definitely digging the dry line type bulge from central Iowa down into Missouri later Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 I'm not a big fan of the hugely amplified trough for Sunday, as currently depicted on the models. However, it wouldn't take much change in the trough evolution and associated surface reflection to get slightly more directional shear, which would result in a much bigger threat tornado-wise. Bare minimum, though, I think we get a ton of severe reports on Sunday like the last event. Saturday intrigues me. As many have posted, the forecast soundings, even taking into account the overdone dewpoints and underdone surface temps, look very nice. Although the trough is still way off to the southwest by Saturday early evening, it's interesting to note that the ECMWF and GFS have consistently broken the cap and shown precip over NE/IA. The moisture is a bit shallow through most of the afternoon though, until a surge of higher 850 mb Tds reaches eastern NE and SW IA by 00z. Given the amount of boundary-layer mixing, I'm not sure this will work out. However, even the ECMWF, which usually performs better with moisture, still has at least 65+ Tds up to central IA by 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 7, 2011 Author Share Posted April 7, 2011 nice H7 RH signal in KS saturday evening on the dryline showing the ascent taking place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 7, 2011 Author Share Posted April 7, 2011 I'm uneasy as to where this is going. Saturday looks like a big day for south-central and SW IA. I mean how often do you see CAPE as high as what is being indicated on Saturday along the IA/MO/IL border area in April? Even overdone, it's pretty remarkable. And with the jet dynamics, S-central/SE IA along the warm front looks big. so you think the cap wont be a problem saturday and having things just go up further west along the dryline? I'm not too worried about it given the amount of juice but I've been apart of many IA warm front busts lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 I'm uneasy as to where this is going. Saturday looks like a big day for south-central and SW IA. I mean how often do you see CAPE as high as what is being indicated on Saturday along the IA/MO/IL border area in April? Even overdone, it's pretty remarkable. And with the jet dynamics, S-central/SE IA along the warm front looks big. Sunday is just interesting. Even with more backed winds aloft, you're going to have sufficient turning for supercells and tornadoes. And the GFS keeps instability at least near-sfc based well into the night, even up here. By then, a QLCS should be going, but I don't see the tornado threat magically stopping after sunset. The threat area is huge, basically from WI down to LA and points E. I'm not ready to put a potential ceiling on this. The models have largely been inconsistent of late, but I've got an uneasy feeling. I'll be honest, unless things change I am concerned about some big time action for my shift Sunday Night/Monday Morning at Metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 I'm not a big fan of the hugely amplified trough for Sunday, as currently depicted on the models. However, it wouldn't take much change in the trough evolution and associated surface reflection to get slightly more directional shear, which would result in a much bigger threat tornado-wise. Bare minimum, though, I think we get a ton of severe reports on Sunday like the last event. Saturday intrigues me. As many have posted, the forecast soundings, even taking into account the overdone dewpoints and underdone surface temps, look very nice. Although the trough is still way off to the southwest by Saturday early evening, it's interesting to note that the ECMWF and GFS have consistently broken the cap and shown precip over NE/IA. The moisture is a bit shallow through most of the afternoon though, until a surge of higher 850 mb Tds reaches eastern NE and SW IA by 00z. Given the amount of boundary-layer mixing, I'm not sure this will work out. However, even the ECMWF, which usually performs better with moisture, still has at least 65+ Tds up to central IA by 00z. Much will be elevated early on Saturday evening/late afternoon along the increasing nocturnal/dynamic LLJ. Inversion heights currently progged are very low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 I'm uneasy as to where this is going. Saturday looks like a big day for south-central and SW IA. I mean how often do you see CAPE as high as what is being indicated on Saturday along the IA/MO/IL border area in April? Even overdone, it's pretty remarkable. And with the jet dynamics, S-central/SE IA along the warm front looks big. Sunday is just interesting. Even with more backed winds aloft, you're going to have sufficient turning for supercells and tornadoes. And the GFS keeps instability at least near-sfc based well into the night, even up here. By then, a QLCS should be going, but I don't see the tornado threat magically stopping after sunset. The threat area is huge, basically from WI down to LA and points E. I'm not ready to put a potential ceiling on this. The models have largely been inconsistent of late, but I've got an uneasy feeling. Trough evolution on the large scale is pretty well known here--but the small details including the strength of the IPV max embedded within the broad scale trough will have a large impact on the evolution of things Sunday. IPV/DT details will have a large influence on the mesoscale jet structure aloft as well--so I agree--still some things to wait on in terms of potentials. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Much will be elevated early on Saturday evening/late afternoon along the increasing nocturnal/dynamic LLJ. Inversion heights currently progged are very low. They may start out as such along or just north of the warm front, but given the ramped-up LLJ and how quickly the warm front is retreating northward, some of these storms may end up in the warm sector and evolve into surface-based storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fred Gossage Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 They may start out as such along or just north of the warm front, but given the ramped-up LLJ and how quickly the warm front is retreating northward, some of these storms may end up in the warm sector and evolve into surface-based storms. Unless the moisture isn't rich enough and there is a shallow non-capping CIN layer. Then, they may be rooted above that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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