Kevin Askew Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Kevin, I will be curious to see if we are placed in a risk for Saturday - pretty amazing CAPE and the like on the Paducah sounding. So far SPC has the risk west and east of the area. Based on the SREF rus, I can see it Sat. here too. I would be more surprised if we wasnt placed in one. Let the team know the possibilities yesterday of that. Some good numbers over us. also waiting on new SREF coming in now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Askew Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Yes, what this time?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 7, 2011 Author Share Posted April 7, 2011 Try issuing warnings there. Touche. Any chance you were working at DVN the Parkersburg day? Or even better question, favorite event that you have worked? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Try issuing warnings there. During our spotter class in Columbia, they acted like it was a good thing to switch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 7, 2011 Author Share Posted April 7, 2011 Yes, what this time?? "we like the area closer towards Springfield, just have to nail down the mesoscale then pick intercept. Hopefully we wont get into the forest there." How can you say that 3 days from an event?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Touche. Any chance you were working at DVN the Parkersburg day? Or even better question, favorite event that you have worked? Came to DVN two months after Parkersburg (but from what I hear it was one of the more concerning days they've ever had regarding parameters and once the tornado was on the ground). Favorite event is pretty easy, 6/5/10. Forecasts leading up to it, working the event that evening, then doing the survey in Putnam County the next day. It was one of those true outbreak days where there is a nervous calm before things explode. You really don't have a lot of time to think about what is going on as it is happening, I have to say the office was operating like a well oiled machine. But you don't realize how all your senses are maxed out until the event ends (at least for your CWA). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 7, 2011 Author Share Posted April 7, 2011 Likely overdone but the 0z NAM has near 70 dew points northwest of STL into east central MO by 15z saturday, thats nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Askew Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 "we like the area closer towards Springfield, just have to nail down the mesoscale then pick intercept. Hopefully we wont get into the forest there." How can you say that 3 days from an event?? Im trying to be nice here and have fun, I mentioned a town in an area that we may be chasing K. Nailing the mesoscale is a nowcast referring to future during the event in the Springfield area. Is that clear enough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Askew Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Lots of good numbers have been present with runs. May be overdone as to some lack of areas not being highlighted as of yet. SPC waiting to bite closer to event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 7, 2011 Author Share Posted April 7, 2011 The 0z NAM breaks the cap along the dryline with a nice isolated cell in north central KS but would wonder about the tornado threat given the really warm temps during the day. It continues to try to do it along the warm front and is now even showing 4500 j/kg of CAPE in northern MO...geesh. going to be interesting how SPC or the forecaster on duty tonight plays the day 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Hmmm... IA... 2011... Warm front.... H7 temps progged to be ~7.5C... 4000 J/kg CAPE... 200+ m2/s2 SRH... isn't it a little too early for an IA cap bust? (kidding of course, but, you know...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Askew Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 The 0z NAM breaks the cap along the dryline with a nice isolated cell in north central KS but would wonder about the tornado threat given the really warm temps during the day. It continues to try to do it along the warm front and is now even showing 4500 j/kg of CAPE in northern MO...geesh. going to be interesting how SPC or the forecaster on duty tonight plays the day 3. Agreed, was wondering the almost seemed silence on such a promising set up. Or they just getting closer to event to really become bullish when more certain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 7, 2011 Author Share Posted April 7, 2011 Hmmm... IA... 2011... Warm front.... H7 temps progged to be ~7.5C... 4000 J/kg CAPE... 200+ m2/s2 SRH... isn't it a little too early for an IA cap bust? (kidding of course, but, you know...) Mother Nature tends to wait till june or after (with the worst being 6/18/09) to kill all hope of a big monster in IA on a warm front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 It continues to try to do it along the warm front and is now even showing 4500 j/kg of CAPE in northern MO...geesh. Actually...the 4500 j/kg of CAPE is between US-50 and I-70 in West Central MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Mother Nature tends to wait till june or after (with the worst being 6/18/09) to kill all hope of a big monster in IA on a warm front. One of my top 5 longest shifts of my NWS career so far, 4 AM to 5 PM. Those were Parkersburg type parameters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 I like that! Your talk of Kansas made me but then I Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 I know this isn't what makes or breaks an event, but while we're killing some time, I went back and checked some past April tornado outbreaks and I could find very few that had 500 mb winds as high as 100 knots in the southwest on the morning of the outbreak, which is what model consensus is currently showing. 00z NAM has an area of 105 knots in New Mexico at 12z Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 7, 2011 Author Share Posted April 7, 2011 One of my top 5 longest shifts of my NWS career so far, 4 AM to 5 PM. Those were Parkersburg type parameters. had nobody to go with so my mom drove and we sat in Waterloo all day..ugh. Told her if the cap broke we would be rewarded but we all know how that turned out. I think those parameters beat Parkersburg lol sig tor on the spc meso-analysis page was sitting at like 11 I believe along the warm front in northern IA> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 I blame that Wendy's in that town for me being sick...was a out of order sign on the Dr. Pepper there...I tried it, it seemed to taste fine and my friend moved the stcker to a different pop lol LMAO we ate at a Steak N Shake in Urbana on the way home Sunday Night/Monday Morning (about 2:30 AM) and it was the worst experience I have ever had at a Steak N Shake - was extremely surprised I didn't end up with some type of food poisoning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 If you are between the two rivers say south of Macomb you are looking at some hilly forested territory. Not great chasing real estate. We hung out in Macomb for about an hour Sunday - was not overly impressed with the town to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 The 0z NAM breaks the cap along the dryline with a nice isolated cell in north central KS but would wonder about the tornado threat given the really warm temps during the day. It continues to try to do it along the warm front and is now even showing 4500 j/kg of CAPE in northern MO...geesh. going to be interesting how SPC or the forecaster on duty tonight plays the day 3. I think tonight's and tomorrow night's day 3's are going to be the most anticipated day 3 outlooks in AmWx history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 I know this isn't what makes or breaks an event, but while we're killing some time, I went back and checked some past April tornado outbreaks and I could find very few that had 500 mb winds as high as 100 knots in the southwest on the morning of the outbreak, which is what model consensus is currently showing. 00z NAM has an area of 105 knots in New Mexico at 12z Sunday. This was one of them: Substantial difference with the trough though with the upcoming one being more amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 had nobody to go with so my mom drove and we sat in Waterloo all day..ugh. Told her if the cap broke we would be rewarded but we all know how that turned out. I think those parameters beat Parkersburg lol sig tor on the spc meso-analysis page was sitting at like 11 I believe along the warm front in northern IA> That's over 5,500 J/kg in the sounding, not forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 21Z SREF is painting a 90% chance of dew points over 65 degrees at 18Z on Saturday History Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 That's over 5,500 J/kg in the sounding, not forecast. And with that shear...wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Askew Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 I think tonight's and tomorrow night's day 3's are going to be the most anticipated day 3 outlooks in AmWx history. Yep, dont know how much longer I can hold this breath.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Mother Nature tends to wait till june or after (with the worst being 6/18/09) to kill all hope of a big monster in IA on a warm front. Ugh... that event was a great big car ride for nothing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 had nobody to go with so my mom drove and we sat in Waterloo all day..ugh. Told her if the cap broke we would be rewarded but we all know how that turned out. I think those parameters beat Parkersburg lol sig tor on the spc meso-analysis page was sitting at like 11 I believe along the warm front in northern IA> I want to say the supercell composite parameter off of the DVN sounding was like 53 or something ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 7, 2011 Author Share Posted April 7, 2011 now popping an 8.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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