Thundersnow12 Posted April 7, 2011 Author Share Posted April 7, 2011 Perhaps later in the night. The problem with setting up there for initiation is the fact that there's a well-agreed upon 500mb s/w ridge that helps keep things capped that far east (and slight height rises aloft). The better height falls are further west over far SW Iowa, NW Missouri and over into E NE/KS, and this would be the region to look for initiation, imo. Storms that get going farther west will have a great environment to move into later however, so some long-lived supercells seem probable. Edit: This is again, all based off current model consensus, which is still on the 3-day timeframe, and should be taken with a grain of salt. 6/7/09 all over again lol that stupid river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 What's the point of picking a target before the day 3 is even out? lol I don't get that. Things are most likely going change, and thats not including the mesoscale. I wasn't saying we picked a target, just that I currently like NE Missouri/Western Illinois for Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Askew Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 What's the point of picking a target before the day 3 is even out? lol I don't get that. Things are most likely going change, and thats not including the mesoscale. Its just fun for me and giving heads up to team the thinking of where we may go, Nothing really scientific about it.. Just fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Askew Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Ill reword, W. Illinois. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 7, 2011 Author Share Posted April 7, 2011 I wasn't saying we picked a target, just that I currently like NE Missouri/Western Illinois for Saturday. I wasn't talking about you lol. It would be nice to not have to deal with any rivers but that is looking highly unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMADreamer Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 I'm liking Northeastern Missouri/Western Illinois right now (of course the radar hole of the Midwest). Hi first time long time, I'm a former Meteorologist, I like long walks on the beach and I'm an Aquarius. anywho, I live south of Quincy and it's looking good for us this weekend. I agree on the radar hole, it's caused some problems in the last few years unfortunately with unwarned storms dropping tornadoes and causing damage. Glad to see it's not just mine and other weather types in this area imagination that there is a radar hole particularly in north east Missouri. ok back to lurking... Happy hunting everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 I wasn't talking about you lol. It would be nice to not have to deal with any rivers but that is looking highly unlikely. Yes agreed - the area that we chased this last weekend bordered the Mississippi and of course strategizing ways to get across the river can be challenging! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Hi first time long time, I'm a former Meteorologist, I like long walks on the beach and I'm an Aquarius. anywho, I live south of Quincy and it's looking good for us this weekend. I agree on the radar hole, it's caused some problems in the last few years unfortunately with unwarned storms dropping tornadoes and causing damage. Glad to see it's not just mine and other weather types in this area imagination that there is a radar hole particularly in north east Missouri. ok back to lurking... Happy hunting everyone. I chased in that area last weekend and it is essentially a nightmare trying to look at velocities in that area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 6/7/09 all over again lol that stupid river. Let me guess, you were stuck between the Rulo, NE and St. Joseph, MO bridge crossings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Askew Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 I wasn't talking about you lol. It would be nice to not have to deal with any rivers but that is looking highly unlikely. No I normally dont pick towns but will be our first chase in W. Illinois. I draw target area off GR 3 and Quincy just happened to be in it.. Jeez lol Btw, how is the territory there in W. Illinois? Looks so so on terrain maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Yes agreed - the area that we chased this last weekend bordered the Mississippi and of course strategizing ways to get across the river can be challenging! This is why I sat in Muscatine, IA last Sunday. Route 92 bridge access if needed...FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 7, 2011 Author Share Posted April 7, 2011 Yes agreed - the area that we chased this last weekend bordered the Mississippi and of course strategizing ways to get across the river can be challenging! Yep, 6/7/09 and 5/13/09 sucked thanks to river crossings. thankfully last sunday we made the right call playing west of the river and west of Clinton, IA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 No I normally dont pick towns but will be our first chase in W. Illinois. I draw target area off GR 3 and Quincy just happened to be in it.. Jeez lol Btw, how is the territory there in W. Illinois? Looks so so on terrain maps Not as flat and spacious as central IL prairie sightlines but still ok in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Yep, 6/7/09 and 5/13/09 sucked thanks to river crossings. thankfully last sunday we made the right call playing west of the river and west of Clinton, IA. It worked out as we ended up playing Southern Iowa - but it still makes for a challenge. Was torn originally on what to do. We crossed at Fort Madison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Askew Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Not as flat and spacious as central IL prairie sightlines but still ok in my opinion. Thanks. Yep we prefer flats of AR, SEMO but looks as this will be north of us. Looks like a couple of decent bridges anyway to cut in to MO if need be, Beats Caruthersville to Memphis gap lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 7, 2011 Author Share Posted April 7, 2011 Let me guess, you were stuck between the Rulo, NE and St. Joseph, MO bridge crossings? Ya we crossed at Rulo right at the time the second supercell was dropping 5" hail on Oregon, MO was fun going through that town 10 mins after that lol thankfully played right behind it before taking a south option than east to get out in front of it. Fun chase though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 6/7/09 all over again lol that stupid river. Yeah, I hear ya, the big rivers are a royal pain in the rear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 6/7/09 all over again lol that stupid river. That was the first storm I ever chased. I made the executive decision not to cross ahead of the storm, and am frankly glad I did because of the hail that ended up falling on the other side as it took a hard right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 7, 2011 Author Share Posted April 7, 2011 This is why I sat in Muscatine, IA last Sunday. Route 92 bridge access if needed...FTW. I blame that Wendy's in that town for me being sick...was a out of order sign on the Dr. Pepper there...I tried it, it seemed to taste fine and my friend moved the stcker to a different pop lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 7, 2011 Author Share Posted April 7, 2011 That was the first storm I ever chased. I made the executive decision not to cross ahead of the storm, and am frankly glad I did because of the hail that ended up falling on the other side as it took a hard right. did you chase the first sup in southeast NE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMADreamer Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 No I normally dont pick towns but will be our first chase in W. Illinois. I draw target area off GR 3 and Quincy just happened to be in it.. Jeez lol Btw, how is the territory there in W. Illinois? Looks so so on terrain maps If you are between the two rivers say south of Macomb you are looking at some hilly forested territory. Not great chasing real estate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 I blame that Wendy's in that town for me being sick...was a out of order sign on the Dr. Pepper there...I tried it, it seemed to taste fine and my friend moved the stcker to a different pop lol That will teach you not to do that next time. McDonald's across the street was better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 did you chase the first sup in southeast NE? No, I waited for the tail end storm to develop. It was touch and go for a while as I wasn't sure it was going to work out. Turned into a goat rope crossing the river though because or the storm turning right and trying to find a south option that didn't involve dirt roads that weren't on the map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Askew Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 If you are between the two rivers say south of Macomb you are looking at some hilly forested territory. Not great chasing real estate. Looking over some topo stuff now, we like the area closer towards Springfield, just have to nail down the mesoscale then pick intercept. Hopefully we wont get into the forest there. storm motions pretty fast for this one as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMADreamer Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Looking over some topo stuff now, we like the area closer towards Springfield, just have to nail down the mesoscale then pick intercept. Hopefully we wont get into the forest there. storm motions pretty fast for this one as well Springfield area is good and flat. Once you get east of the Illinois River you are in decent chase territory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Askew Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Springfield area is good and flat. Once you get east of the Illinois River you are in decent chase territory. Sounds good thanks for the heads up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 I chased in that area last weekend and it is essentially a nightmare trying to look at velocities in that area I hate the Tri-States Radar Hole! Having to flip between DVN/EAX/LSX radars stinks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Askew Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Curious to see timing trends on future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 7, 2011 Author Share Posted April 7, 2011 Looking over some topo stuff now, we like the area closer towards Springfield, just have to nail down the mesoscale then pick intercept. Hopefully we wont get into the forest there. storm motions pretty fast for this one as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 I hate the Tri-States Radar Hole! Having to flip between DVN/EAX/LSX radars stinks! Try issuing warnings there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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