Thundersnow12 Posted April 6, 2011 Author Share Posted April 6, 2011 Do you think the projected dews for this weekend system are realistic for the Midwest? Models overdid dews for the Midwest for the last event. But with the progged flow giving the gulf time to recover as I have been reading, who knows? I think we have a legit shot at mid to upper 60 dews with this system, the SE ridge will be sliding off the coast tonight/tomorrow and pretty much open up the flood gates from the gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reed Stough Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 12Z GFS looks more negatively tilted with the 500mb Low. More tornadoes if it verifies, providing the warm sector doesn't get messed up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 Do you think the projected dews for this weekend system are realistic for the Midwest? Models overdid dews for the Midwest for the last event. But with the progged flow giving the gulf time to recover as I have been reading, who knows? The GFS tends to be a couple degrees too high compared to observed dewpoints, but it also always grossly underestimates the surface temps in the warm sector. All things considered, it typically underestimates instability somewhat. On the synoptic scale leading up to the event though, there's no reason to doubt that there will be sufficient moisture over a widespread region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 I think we have a legit shot at mid to upper 60 dews with this system, the SE ridge will be sliding off the coast tonight/tomorrow and pretty much open up the flood gates from the gulf. Agreed. The sacrificial lamb system tomorrow will also assist with setting up the moisture transport for this event. BTW, 12z GFS has 4000J/kg CAPE in western IL on Saturday, with over 90 degrees of turning from sfc to 500mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 6, 2011 Author Share Posted April 6, 2011 Agreed. The sacrificial lamb system tomorrow will also assist with setting up the moisture transport for this event. BTW, 12z GFS has 4000J/kg CAPE in western IL on Saturday, with over 90 degrees of turning from sfc to 500mb. Yep I saw that, and with the stronger mid-level winds still out to the west, storm motions would be ok if something could go up on the warm front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 Agreed. The sacrificial lamb system tomorrow will also assist with setting up the moisture transport for this event. BTW, 12z GFS has 4000J/kg CAPE in western IL on Saturday, with over 90 degrees of turning from sfc to 500mb. Just checked the 84 hour forecast sounding for Quincy...that is outrageous for early April. LI of -9 too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 6, 2011 Author Share Posted April 6, 2011 Just checked the 84 hour forecast sounding for Quincy...that is outrageous for early April. LI of -9 too. BMI and PIA even more impressive.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 Cool...thanks. 00z ECMWF would throw a wrench in things. It has been on the slower side but that run took it to another level. I wouldn't be too concerned about this, it did the same with this last system, and that didn't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 I wouldn't be too concerned about this, it did the same with this last system, and that didn't happen. 12z GFS did take a notable step towards the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 Although this is with dews over 70 which I won't believe until I see it. OTOH it is probably too cool at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 6, 2011 Author Share Posted April 6, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 Although this is with dews over 70 which I won't believe until I see it. OTOH it is probably too cool at the surface. Yeah see this is the thing that is a bit alarming for me, these early season events end up more unstable than forecasted. How much more unstable could it truly get... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 Yeah see this is the thing that is a bit alarming for me, these early season events end up more unstable than forecasted. How much more unstable could it truly get... I don't know. That sounding is something out of May or June. I'd be curious to see what it looked like if it were modified for something like 85/67. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 I don't know. That sounding is something out of May or June. I'd be curious to see what it looked like if it were modified for something like 85/67. Probably similar CAPE values, although the LCL height would probably be higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 FWIW, 12z Euro looks similar to the 00z run, maybe a little faster by 120 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 Probably similar CAPE values, although the LCL height would probably be higher. Ya think? All kidding aside... Just started looking more at this weekend. Definitely looks like a potentially dangerous setup. If the trough doesn't go negative tilt until fully into the Midwest, maybe things don't "line out" as quickly and thus the tornado threat is enhanced. I doubt moisture will be a big issue, with Tds getting into the 60s. Need to make sure we keep the LCL heights low enough. Everything else looks pretty good at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 Ya think? All kidding aside... Just started looking more at this weekend. Definitely looks like a potentially dangerous setup. If the trough doesn't go negative tilt until fully into the Midwest, maybe things don't "line out" as quickly and thus the tornado threat is enhanced. I doubt moisture will be a big issue, with Tds getting into the 60s. Need to make sure we keep the LCL heights low enough. Everything else looks pretty good at this point. Yeah this is one of those events where I wish I didn't have to work on the weekends. I'd love to be out in that area all weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 Yeah this is one of those events where I wish I didn't have to work on the weekends. I'd love to be out in that area all weekend. Yeah, I was supposed to go to Port Huron, MI for five days on Friday- but couldn't get the time off work. D'oh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 So... I will likely be chasing on Saturday and/or Sunday(probably both)... I am looking for a chase partner(s). I have gone out alone on both chases thus far this season, and going out alone on these long distance chases are a pain in the ass...so if anyone would be interested please let me know. Bump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 6, 2011 Author Share Posted April 6, 2011 Bump. Ask Csnavywx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 Bump. I'll be going with a group of 4-8 people I know from NIU, so that'd be just fine with me. I'd like to make it into a 2-day trip (start Saturday, stay in a hotel, then jump to our position for Sunday early on), especially since it seems we'll get an extended time period to mess around with the dryline and warm front this far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 6, 2011 Author Share Posted April 6, 2011 I'll be going with a group of 4-8 people I know from NIU, so that'd be just fine with me. I'd like to make it into a 2-day trip (start Saturday, stay in a hotel, then jump to our position for Sunday early on), especially since it seems we'll get an extended time period to mess around with the dryline and warm front this far east. lol I wonder if I know any of them from NIU. I'm liking saturday over sunday right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 Ya think? All kidding aside... Just started looking more at this weekend. Definitely looks like a potentially dangerous setup. If the trough doesn't go negative tilt until fully into the Midwest, maybe things don't "line out" as quickly and thus the tornado threat is enhanced. I doubt moisture will be a big issue, with Tds getting into the 60s. Need to make sure we keep the LCL heights low enough. Everything else looks pretty good at this point. LCL heights are a worry. I think we could get into a situation on Saturday where temps will be 85-90 over a large area, causing quite a bit of mixing and making these dews bust by 5-8F. Then again, higher based supercells do make for some great photogeneic opportunities, as was the case on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 lol I wonder if I know any of them from NIU. I'm liking saturday over sunday right now. Only reason Sunday would be any worse is due to cloud cover and/or storm speed. I'm not convinced cloud cover is going to be that big of an issue though. I actually like the dynamics on Sunday better, especially with the chance of the dryline punching abnormally far east and somewhat deeper BL moisture (lower LCLs). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 From the IWX afternoon weather briefing for EMA's: Just to re-iterate, this storm system has the potential to be a major weather event for the area (something we have not seen in a very long time). It has the potential to produce devastating damage, not the typical isolated-scattered reports we see from an average severe weather event. The purpose of the briefing was to highlight this potential, and give people ample time to start making preparations. Again, much uncertainty is still present due to current model handling of the upper level trough and forecasts could certainly change. An update briefing will be held by our office at 10:30 AM EDT Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 We too are planning on making this a 2 day chase going both Saturday/staying the night and chasing again on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 Here is one of the slides from IWX's afternoon EMA briefing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 Here is one of the slides from IWX's afternoon EMA briefing I think it's a little early to be saying something that bold, especially when you're toward the eastern end of the risk area and especially to EMs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 6, 2011 Author Share Posted April 6, 2011 I think it's a little early to be saying something that bold, especially when you're toward the eastern end of the risk area and especially to EMs. Agreed, I wouldn't throw out violent, long track tornadoes this far out from the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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