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April 7th-10th Severe Weather


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Looks like Pocahontas might have taken a hit...

1017 PM TORNADO 1 W POCAHONTAS 42.74N 94.69W 04/09/2011 POCAHONTAS IA STORM CHASER LARGE WEDGE TORNADO IN PROGRESS.

Also looks like Plover may have just taken a hit. All the scanners are down right now due to an Iowa telecom issue.

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I dont see why SPC did not keep the 10% hatched area for strong tornadoes in their forecast from earlier today. Even a 15% hatched looked justifiable. Several mile-wide wedge tornadoes.

You can't make posterior judgments on individual probabilistic forecasts

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I dont see why SPC did not keep the 10% hatched area for strong tornadoes in their forecast from earlier today. Even a 15% hatched looked justifiable. Several mile-wide wedge tornadoes.

I think their decision to lower the probs may have been in part due to the HRRR. In any rate the margin of error between sfc-based development and cap bust today was very small, as the HRRR waffled back and forth between initiation (very near the area it exactly occurred) and bust. The RUC, which is usu too strong with everything, showed initiation in the right spot as well. I think what ultimately happened was that the all-important subtle s/w that sparked everything off was a little stronger than expected (it was very evident on UA analysis and WV imagery in the early aftn). The deep ACCAS in the early aftn may have been a sign of that as well.

Regardless, the threat area was for the most part on the spot. Overall they did a good job.

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I think their decision to lower the probs may have been in part due to the HRRR. In any rate the margin of error between sfc-based development and cap bust today was very small, as the HRRR waffled back and forth between initiation (very near the area it exactly occurred) and bust. The RUC, which is usu too strong with everything, showed initiation in the right spot as well. I think what ultimately happened was that the all-important subtle s/w that sparked everything off was a little stronger than expected (it was very evident on UA analysis and WV imagery in the early aftn). The deep ACCAS in the early aftn may have been a sign of that as well.

Regardless, the threat area was for the most part on the spot. Overall they did a good job.

Thank you.

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Early, IA got hit :(... that cell looked amazing at the moment it roared through... hopefully everyone is okay out there.

1046 PM TORNADO EARLY 42.46N 95.15W 04/09/2011 SAC IA TRAINED SPOTTER MULTIPLE ROOFS RIPPED OFF HOMES...EXTENSIVE HOUSE DAMAGE...AND LARGE TREES DOWN

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA

1111 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DES MOINES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHERN KOSSUTH COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL IOWA...

NORTHEASTERN PALO ALTO COUNTY IN NORTHWEST IOWA...

* UNTIL 1145 PM CDT

* AT 1108 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS

STORM WAS LOCATED 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF ALGONA...AND MOVING

NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

BANCROFT...FENTON...LONE ROCK AND BURT.

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Just an FYI to everyone, NWS is back online.

Tornadoes are still being reported:

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA

1105 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2011

IAC091-109-147-151-100445-

/O.CON.KDMX.TO.W.0027.000000T0000Z-110410T0445Z/

POCAHONTAS IA-PALO ALTO IA-KOSSUTH IA-HUMBOLDT IA-

1105 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN HUMBOLDT...

SOUTHERN KOSSUTH...SOUTHEASTERN PALO ALTO AND NORTHEASTERN POCAHONTAS

COUNTIES UNTIL 1145 PM CDT...

AT 1104 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS

TORNADO WAS LOCATED 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ALGONA...MOVING NORTHEAST

AT 45 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

ALGONA...OTTOSEN...BODE...LIVERMORE...ALGONA AIRPORT AND LU VERNE.

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IAC091-109-100445-

/O.CON.KDMX.TO.W.0027.000000T0000Z-110410T0445Z/

KOSSUTH IA-HUMBOLDT IA-

1120 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH CENTRAL HUMBOLDT AND

SOUTHERN KOSSUTH COUNTIES UNTIL 1145 PM CDT...

AT 1116 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS

TORNADO WAS LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ALGONA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT

35 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

ALGONA...ALGONA AIRPORT AND LU VERNE.

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Well I'm back home, gave up on the chase as my partner was a bit tired, wish the storms had come during the day as they were useless to photograph but I'm pretty happy about seeing the tornado in SW Pocahontas county a couple times and a funnel at least with the second cell that clipped thru, helluva light show as well. Definitely tell the warm front has pushed north, back in the mid 70's here after having dropped down to the 60's earlier. Looking at the long range RUC might be a chance for a few more, albeit less intense, storms tomorrow.

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Just an FYI to everyone, NWS is back online.

Tornadoes are still being reported:

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA

1105 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2011

IAC091-109-147-151-100445-

/O.CON.KDMX.TO.W.0027.000000T0000Z-110410T0445Z/

POCAHONTAS IA-PALO ALTO IA-KOSSUTH IA-HUMBOLDT IA-

1105 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN HUMBOLDT...

SOUTHERN KOSSUTH...SOUTHEASTERN PALO ALTO AND NORTHEASTERN POCAHONTAS

COUNTIES UNTIL 1145 PM CDT...

AT 1104 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS

TORNADO WAS LOCATED 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ALGONA...MOVING NORTHEAST

AT 45 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

ALGONA...OTTOSEN...BODE...LIVERMORE...ALGONA AIRPORT AND LU VERNE.

Not sure what is up with the servers. Our site was ok tonight--but others in Central Region were not. The warnings were still being disseminated via weather radio, to emergency managers, tv, etc etc--it was just the web site that was screwed up.

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IAC091-109-100445-

/O.CON.KDMX.TO.W.0027.000000T0000Z-110410T0445Z/

KOSSUTH IA-HUMBOLDT IA-

1120 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH CENTRAL HUMBOLDT AND

SOUTHERN KOSSUTH COUNTIES UNTIL 1145 PM CDT...

AT 1116 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS

TORNADO WAS LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ALGONA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT

35 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

ALGONA...ALGONA AIRPORT AND LU VERNE.

Algona took a direct hit from a large tornado in the late 70's, 1979 possibly . . . .

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On our way back to our hotel in Davenport - what an absolutely amazing day. We literally saw so many tornadoes we lost count. Several multi-vortex tornadoes. All kinds of footage and pictures. Will try to go through some of it tomorrow morning.

Very sobering to to see the damage and injury reports. Also we rarely saw/heard towns/cities activating their tornado sirens - kind of discouraging really.

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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA

1126 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2011

IAC109-100445-

/O.CON.KDMX.TO.W.0027.000000T0000Z-110410T0445Z/

KOSSUTH IA-

1126 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN KOSSUTH COUNTY

UNTIL 1145 PM CDT...

AT 1125 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS

TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR ALGONA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

ALGONA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IMMEDIATELY SEEK SHELTER IN A BASEMENT...

OR IN AN INTERIOR ROOM OF A REINFORCED BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM

WINDOWS.

IF YOU ARE OUTSIDE...IN A MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...SEEK

SHELTER IN A NEARBY REINFORCED BUILDING. AS A LAST RESORT...FIND THE

LOWEST SPOT AVAILABLE AND COVER YOUR HEAD.

TORNADOES ARE DIFFICULT TO SEE AT NIGHT...ACT QUICKLY. TAKE COVER

NOW.

And now it may have taken another direct hit tonight.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA

1129 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DES MOINES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHERN HANCOCK COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL IOWA...

EAST CENTRAL KOSSUTH COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL IOWA...

SOUTH CENTRAL WINNEBAGO COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL IOWA...

* UNTIL 1215 AM CDT

* AT 1125 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS

STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTH OF ALGONA...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT

40 MPH.

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