Hoosier Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 IND has some comments too... THE MAIN SHOW THOUGH WILL BE ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AS A VERY POTENT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A 100 PLUS KT UPPER LEVEL JET THAT EVENING. UNLIKE PREVIOUS STORM SYSTEMS SO FAR THIS SPRING...THIS ONE WILL HAVE SOME INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH AS WELL AS DYNAMICS. FYI, I just posted some thoughts on my blog... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 Decent numbers coming off the SREF for Friday along a northward moving boundary (almost a SW/NE oriented dryline, really quite weird). Looks like we're getting lucky with weekend type setups so far this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 6, 2011 Author Share Posted April 6, 2011 Decent numbers coming off the SREF for Friday along a northward moving boundary (almost a SW/NE oriented dryline, really quite weird). Looks like we're getting lucky with weekend type setups so far this year. Ya im curious as to what 12z NAM tomorrow will do regarding saturday's setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 Yeah, can't wait for the 12z NAM tomorrow. 21z SREF probs. FWIW: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 6, 2011 Author Share Posted April 6, 2011 0z GFS has even more juice than the 12z run with dew points near or just above 70 and CAPE values of >3000 j/kg in eastern IA/northern IL on saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 One thing I like about Sunday is how the strongest winds aloft are almost perfectly located within the surface frontal zone...very little lagging there. There could be extreme damaging wind potential if things work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 6, 2011 Author Share Posted April 6, 2011 The 12z GFS sounding for DVN saturday evening....with a STP of 14.3.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 The 12z GFS sounding for DVN saturday evening....with a STP of 14.3.... That sounding is sick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 So... I will likely be chasing on Saturday and/or Sunday(probably both)... I am looking for a chase partner(s). I have gone out alone on both chases thus far this season, and going out alone on these long distance chases are a pain in the ass...so if anyone would be interested please let me know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 00z GGEM has the surface low on the NE/IA border at 00z Monday...meanwhile the GFS is in the UP of Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 00z GGEM has the surface low on the NE/IA border at 00z Monday...meanwhile the GFS is in the UP of Michigan. Trended towards the Euro on speed sounds like. Although after that time, the evolution of the system is a little suspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 Wow that's pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 FYI, I just posted some thoughts on my blog... Nice work. I sent your write up out on the twitter streams for the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes weather folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 Wow that's pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 This looks like a great weekend, Eastern Iowa and NW Illinois look prime for a couple rounds, although that is likely to change given the range. Will be nice to have what looks like a couple warm spring days with storms to track coinciding nicely with the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 6, 2011 Author Share Posted April 6, 2011 Izzi (LOT) EVENTUALLY...STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST WITH STRONG FORCING RESULTING IN WEAKENING CAP AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH COLD FROPA. IMPOSSIBLE TO SORT THROUGH THE DETAILS AND SAY WHERE...BUT LIKELY PRESENCE OF SIGNIFICANT EML/SEASONABLY STRONG PUSH OF WARM/MOIST AIR FROM WIDE OPEN GULF/STRONG LOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT MULTI-DAY AND POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER THREATS...PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. TIMING/LOCATION OF GREATER POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER IS IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN DOWN...BUT SYNOPTICALLY FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT DECENT THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST IN OR NEAR THE CHICAGO CWA SOME POINT IN TIME THIS WEEKEND. IZZI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 6, 2011 Author Share Posted April 6, 2011 Geez...the 6z GFS has nearly 4000 j/kg of SBCAPE and a LI's topping out at -11 in southeast IA on saturday, talk about impressive number for this time of year this far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 Geez...the 6z GFS has nearly 4000 j/kg of SBCAPE and a LI's topping out at -11 in southeast IA on saturday, talk about impressive number for this time of year this far north. That's pretty mondo, from a currently progged instability standpoint, things look about as good as you get this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 6, 2011 Author Share Posted April 6, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 depending on the setup saturday, looks like i may have a shot at a chase although i have be back at work at 11pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 that's pretty wild Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 Forecast soundings around the IA/IL border area are looking good: http://beta.wxcaster.com/cgi-bin/parse_skewt_trace.cgi?model=GFS&fcsthr=096&STATIONID=ksfy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 6, 2011 Author Share Posted April 6, 2011 Well the 12z NAM keeps the warm front on saturday evening along and south of I-80 with moisture pooling on it and south with dew points near 70 and alot of instability but still capped. It does break the cap along the dryline in KS/OK but moisture decreases the further south along the dryline you go. Some really nice looking wind profiles/hodographs on the warm front with some impressive sfc-500mb crossovers and with storm motions almost parallel to the boundary in northern MO/southern IA/western IL, it would certainly make for an interesting scenario if the cap were to break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 6, 2011 Author Share Posted April 6, 2011 found this interesting from DMX STILL FAVOR THE DEEPER AND SLOWER SOLUTIONS OF THE ECMWF/GEM OVER THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS THOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF LOOKS A LITTLE FAR SOUTH. LIKELY WILL HAVE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AROUND ON SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY SOME SEVERE WEATHER. SUNDAY STILL LOOKS TO HAVE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH POTENTIAL DRY LINE REACHING THE AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 Well the 12z NAM keeps the warm front on saturday evening along and south of I-80 with moisture pooling on it and south with dew points near 70 and alot of instability but still capped. It does break the cap along the dryline in KS/OK but moisture decreases the further south along the dryline you go. Some really nice looking wind profiles/hodographs on the warm front with some impressive sfc-500mb crossovers and with storm motions almost parallel to the boundary in northern MO/southern IA/western IL, it would certainly make for an interesting scenario if the cap were to break. 12z NAM has nicely shaped hodographs here on Saturday...only problem is that the flow is pretty anemic from about 700 mb to the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 Nice work. I sent your write up out on the twitter streams for the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes weather folks. Cool...thanks. 00z ECMWF would throw a wrench in things. It has been on the slower side but that run took it to another level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 Wow that's pretty impressive. UKIE took it down to 970 mb at 132 hours. It likes to overdo things though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 6, 2011 Author Share Posted April 6, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 Do you think the projected dews for this weekend system are realistic for the Midwest? Models overdid dews for the Midwest for the last event. But with the progged flow giving the gulf time to recover as I have been reading, who knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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