BowMeHunter Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 If I didn't have class on Monday i'd be roaming WI, we are still deciding the risk/reward travelling east towards the cities on sunday. I think Western WI is gonna gonna see some long trackers Meh.. most missing my point.. Winter storms are fun to track a week out even if missing me north or south... These severe threads are serious business and encompass to many miles out of the MW range for me and logic of the geography of most on this side of the board unless you're a chaser radar gawker and I have to weed through all the plains and hickville chasing area talk to get any info for the areas less desirable to chase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Hmm, I'm sort of puzzled as to why the slight risk area on day 2 wasn't expanded east, especially given that the slower NAM is coming in line. You and me both, I really think that not only the cold front will yield late, but the warm front especially across MI has the potential to yield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 9, 2011 Author Share Posted April 9, 2011 Day 2... ...TORNADO OUTBREAK POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ..UPPER MS VALLEY AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT PLAINS SUNDAY AS A POWERFUL 90 TO 110 KT MID-LEVEL JET EJECTS NEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL STATES. AT THE SFC...A STRONG LOW WILL MOVE NEWD INTO IA SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SFC DEWPOINTS REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 60S F SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE EXIT REGION OF THE JET WILL OVERSPREAD THE UPPER MS VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON CREATING STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES VERY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT POSSIBILITY FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA. AN UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS A PORTION OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY IN LATER OUTLOOKS. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT CELLS WILL FIRST DEVELOP IN NRN IA AND SE MN AND MOVE INTO NRN WI DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE TRACK OF A SFC LOW AND ALONG A WARM FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z NEAR THE WARM FRONT SHOW MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG...0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES NEAR 60 KT AND 0-3 STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES OF 250 TO 350 M2/S2. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE WITH TIME AS A LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR LONG-TRACK TORNADOES WITH CELLS THAT TRACK ENEWD ALONG THE WARM FRONT. ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR SWD ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR FROM ERN IA NEWD INTO SRN AND CNTRL WI BY EARLY EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD ALSO RAPIDLY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR WITH TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH THE MORE DOMINANT CELLS. A THREAT FOR STRONG TORNADOES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING AS A CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS MOVES ENEWD ACROSS WI. SEVERE STORMS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP SWD INTO NRN AND WRN IL WHERE THE STRONGER CELLS SHOULD HAVE A TORNADO...WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE THREAT DURING THE EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 You and me both, I really think that not only the cold front will yield late, but the warm front especially across MI has the potential to yield. Yeah, but it's still just the first day 2 outlook. I'm sure they'll bump those areas up accordingly in the next several updates between now and then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Yeah, but it's still just the first day 2 outlook. I'm sure they'll bump those areas up accordingly in the next several updates between now and then. Idk this is MI we are talking about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Meh.. most missing my point.. Winter storms are fun to track a week out even if missing me north or south... These severe threads are serious business and encompass to many miles out of the MW range for me and logic of the geography of most on this side of the board unless you're a chaser radar gawker and I have to weed through all the plains and hickville chasing area talk to get any info for the areas less desirable to chase. Or we could not be like the East Coast and break everything up in 50' increments Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 You and me both, I really think that not only the cold front will yield late, but the warm front especially across MI has the potential to yield. Probably has to do with timing and instability concerns. Instability is going to fall off as we move through Sunday night but I question how fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iowahawkeyedave Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Looks like I won't have to go very far at all to chase on Sunday, and can stick around Iowa City. Just like last Sunday. Although seems like best odds of strong tornadoes might be from NE Iowa up into Wisconsin closer to the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Sorry for the rant.. I just miss all of the winter storm interaction with the core mw people.. Just seems a lot of the MW storm tracking closeness is lost once serious severe weather business kicks in. Carry on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 I think on Sunday a good area will be around Waterloo Iowa and Rochester Minnesota... I would bet somewhere around or just Northeast of these cities will see at least one moderate tornado of EF3ish strength.... and that threat will extend into much of Central and Southern Wisconsin. Further South across Eastern Iowa into Northern Illinois it appears we may be a bit more removed from the best shear but not enough to lower the threat by a huge amount, and the more discrete storms will certainly have the potential to produce a strong tornado. But I'd focus on Northeast Iowa, Southwest Wisconsin, and Southeast Minnesota I think for the highest probability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 I think on Sunday a good area will be around Waterloo Iowa and Rochester Minnesota... I would bet somewhere around or just Northeast of these cities will see at least one moderate tornado of EF3ish strength.... and that threat will extend into much of Central and Southern Wisconsin. Further South across Eastern Iowa into Northern Illinois it appears we may be a bit more removed from the best shear but not enough to lower the threat by a huge amount, and the more discrete storms will certainly have the potential to produce a strong tornado. But I'd focus on Northeast Iowa, Southwest Wisconsin, and Southeast Minnesota I think for the highest probability. I concur fully with this. The sweet spot is just east of the surface low where the backed surface winds are. The models don't really show the backed surface flow that well right now, but they do sometimes underestimate this, and with the deepening of the low nearby, the winds should respond in this region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 I plan to... If it was a MW/GL winter storm thread you would post any weenie model showing it pound your fanny. That's what's missing to me about severe weather threads.. To sterile, to large of an area to the south west and not enough how you would stebo cast the main threat 100 miles south tonight and bulls eye ones backyard tomorrow. Carry on tho, chasers and radar gawkers.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 If it was a MW/GL winter storm thread you would post any weenie model showing it pound your fanny. That's what's missing to me about severe weather threads.. To sterile, to large of an area to the south west and not enough how you would stebo cast the main threat 100 miles south tonight and bulls eye ones backyard tomorrow. Carry on tho, chasers and radar gawkers.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 I started a sperate thread just for Sundays event..the mods can do what they want with it(such as moving recent post about Sunday there) http://www.americanw...evere-outbreak/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 "THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT POSSIBILITY FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA. AN UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS A PORTION OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY IN LATER OUTLOOKS." A little surprised with the evolution differences and timing amongst guidance. Hard forecast--I am a little surprised they mention high right now. Eh you had to expect one to be thrown up after yesterday. Believe it or not it's been 2 years since we've seen a Moderate Risk 3 days out so it seemed like a High Risk was a lock for Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 00Z RGEM SWEAT/Showalter indices hour 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 We are off - heading towards Davenport to start with (to check in to our hotel) and then heading West/Northwest into Iowa. Staying in Davenport tonight - figured that would put us at a good place to get positioned for tomorrow. Really trying to avoid chasing in Wisconsin (god awful terrain) so plan on staying in Iowa and Illinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 We are off - heading towards Davenport to start with (to check in to our hotel) and then heading West/Northwest into Iowa. Staying in Davenport tonight - figured that would put us at a good place to get positioned for tomorrow. Really trying to avoid chasing in Wisconsin (god awful terrain) so plan on staying in Iowa and Illinois. Yeah I am worried this might be a WI chase, there are some favorable pockets in the state there but a lot of it is similar to Northern MI which is brutal chase territory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 The 3z SREF came in with more whith higher probs and a bit sooner too, for this evening... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Update: the NAM continues to show a nice wave moving across the TP later today, but the HRRR does not show development and SPC just removed the tornado hatching in its 13Z outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 9, 2011 Author Share Posted April 9, 2011 Update: the NAM continues to show a nice wave moving across the TP later today, but the HRRR does not show development and SPC just removed the tornado hatching in its 13Z outlook. 2 monsters on the 9z run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Wow, the new RUC has 5500j/kg cape nosing north through Omaha. 0-3km EHI of over 10 as well. Beautiful forecast soundings there as well with the LLJ ramping up. Also shows CIN weakening there as well. Getting ready to take off. Looks like we'll head down I-80 towards Omaha, and adjust from there. Probably end up between there and Sioux City. Wouldn't be surprised if we have to head to eastern Nebraska though. Not the damn Missouri River again!?!?! (6/7/09) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 NAM is slower and doesn;t break out any precip before 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Wow, the new RUC has 5500j/kg cape nosing north through Omaha. 0-3km EHI of over 10 as well. Beautiful forecast soundings there as well with the LLJ ramping up. Also shows CIN weakening there as well. Getting ready to take off. Looks like we'll head down I-80 towards Omaha, and adjust from there. Probably end up between there and Sioux City. Wouldn't be surprised if we have to head to eastern Nebraska though. Not the damn Missouri River again!?!?! (6/7/09) I'd probably knock a 1/3rd of that instability off. RUC always goes insane on instability. still that being said around 4000 J/kg SB CAPE is very respectable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 I wonder if that lone severe cell trekking across southern MN will lay down a boundary that may come into play later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 9, 2011 Author Share Posted April 9, 2011 bingo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 I wonder if that lone severe cell trekking across southern MN will lay down a boundary that may come into play later. It probably will lay down a boundary but with it being a relatively small cell the boundary will likely be weak. Model data suggests storms not going/ingredients coming together for a significant threat until after 1800 LST. By then the boundary will likely be ill-defined if even present. The biggerthing to keep an eye on would be clearing line to your south enhancing the differential heating. It's nice to see signs of a gravity wave already. Typically that is a good pre-cursor for an energetic system and severe weather. Nice SREF forecasts too. Part of me wishes I was there (a large part). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Half dollar size hail from that lone cell in MN. Always a good sign when the lone updraft in the Midwest that breaks through the cap goes severe immediately. The frontal structures on this cell are becoming pretty well-defined since it's alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 I don't blame anyone for not wanting to chase in SW Wisconsin (west of Madison) due to the terrain. However, chasers in Northern Illinois should consider staying where they are or even moving into SE Wisconsin, as those areas still stand a good chance at dangerous supercells which may include tornadoes tomorrow late afternoon and early evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Tomorrow looks to be interesting. My 18 year old wants to go chasing tomorrow., so he was up last night figuring out where to go. Any advice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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