MidwestChaser Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 http://colossus.mu.nu/smallest-violin.jpg[\img] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Clique/chaser weather thread... who gives a **** about the north. same as in winter pretty much I guess. If you want to talk about the north, go ahead...no one is stopping you. $bags isn't around to pull the weight for you guys anymore. Oh, and yea... Beats talking about 90% chances of severe weather fail and cold rain here in april.. Not like anything I want to grow matters until the end of may. Let it be cold and snowy through april.. at least with snow you don't need an umbrella for a april walk to any destination. I still you though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 9, 2011 Author Share Posted April 9, 2011 I don't give a sh!t about Oklahoma storms.. I want a severe thread to read and discuss like we do in winter for the surrounding states in the MW/Lakes. Not some cluster**** like this thread that spreads a 1000 miles to my s/sw.. nobody cares about that area in winter storm threads. must be that time of the month....We can't forcast 8 days out what 2 states are going to have severe weather, give me a break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 I don't give a sh!t about Oklahoma storms.. I want a severe thread to read and discuss like we do in winter for the surrounding states in the MW/Lakes. Not some cluster**** like this thread that spreads a 1000 miles to my s/sw.. nobody cares about that area in winter storm threads. Hmm, I wonder why? Not everyone can get what they want, although I certainly wouldn't mind separate threads for the different threats this weekend myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Chasing thread is all these super US aerial coverage threads are.. For fricks sake there is not even a specified area location for the thread. I don't give a **** about severe weather in Oklahoma/ect for the MW and I have to weed through the BS to get info... Winter MW threads are king, severe weather threads are for the clique and chasers.. Terrible for those in the upper MW. Carry on with your fail severe threads though. Might as well just include the rest of the eastern 3rd of the country to those in the upper MW that nobody cares about and move it to the main board and complete the cluster **** severe threads that are over here for the north Go recruit some Wisconsin severe folks. It's funny because I saw kush mention that he thinks the threads are biased toward the upper Midwest/Lakes and he's looking for more discussion about his area. Both of you can't be correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Bow just has the post-winter blues. These threads usually go where the severe weather is at the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Go recruit some Wisconsin severe folks. It's funny because I saw kush mention that he thinks the threads are biased toward the upper Midwest/Lakes and he's looking for more discussion about his area. Both of you can't be correct. Kush's complaint is legit as i'm pretty sure he's the only active member we have in Kansas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Bow just has the post-winter blues. These threads usually go where the severe weather is at the time. I think the ice is still thick enough he should take his truck out and fish on Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 y'all can disagree... A MW/GL winter thread equivalent to this outbreak would be close to if not on its 2nd thread. Now I have to weed through tornado alley BS to get to the beef of what might happen in Iowa or where the chasers in the MW are setting up south of here.. Never does anybody really give a **** about, MN, WI and MI in the super aerial threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 I don't give a sh!t about Oklahoma storms.. I want a severe thread to read and discuss like we do in winter for the surrounding states in the MW/Lakes. Not some cluster**** like this thread that spreads a 1000 miles to my s/sw.. nobody cares about that area in winter storm threads. Prolly won't happen since folks chase and will likely go well out of their own backyard to chase certain setups. Most sane folks don't chase winter storms--although there were a few for Groundhogs blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Oh, btw, Bow does have a point in implying that more of the chasers should be chasing in Wisconsin, Northern Iowa and Minnesota, as I think some of the best action will be found near the borders of those 3 states. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Bow just has the post-winter blues. These threads usually go where the severe weather is at the time. Agree, and its Friday night so it may be the booze talkin...Good ole Bow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1251 AM CDT SAT APR 09 2011 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EXTREME SERN SD ACROSS SRN MN AND NRN IA INTO SWRN WI... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM CNTRL MN/WI...SWWD ACROSS SERN NEB INTO NWRN TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY INTO SC... ..SYNOPSIS A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER PATTERN IS DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY EAST OF THE ROCKIES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OF PARTICULAR INTEREST SATURDAY WILL BE A CORRIDOR OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS WHERE VERY LARGE HAIL AND EVEN A FEW STRONG TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. ANOTHER AREA OF ORGANIZED SEVERE IS POSSIBLE FROM PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OH VALLEY...SEWD INTO SC. ..UPPER MS VALLEY UPPER RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD AS HEIGHT FALLS BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. PRIOR TO LARGE SCALE FORCING AFFECTING THIS REGION...AN EARLY MORNING MCS OR REGION OF THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS WILL BE SHIFTING EAST ACROSS MO/IL. IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY...MOISTURE WILL SURGE NWD ACROSS ERN KS INTO ERN NEB/IA AS LLJ BEGINS TO RESPOND AND INCREASE IN EXCESS OF 40KT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS CAPPING WILL PREVENT MEANINGFUL DAYTIME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE MDT RISK REGION AND BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED NEAR THE MO RIVER ACROSS WRN IA BY 10/00Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS REGION SUGGEST INHIBITION WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY WITHIN CONFLUENT SFC FLOW AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP INITIALLY ACROSS SERN SD/ERN NEB WHERE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE MAXIMIZED. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SBCAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL PROVE VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ADDITIONALLY...LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS STRONGLY SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES AS SFC-3KM HELICITY IS EXPECTED TO BE IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2. FOR THIS REASON A FEW STRONG TORNADOES COULD BE NOTED ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF THE RETREATING WARM FRONT. ONCE THUNDERSTORMS INITIATE ACROSS THIS REGION IT APPEARS AN UPWARD EVOLVING AREA OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONVERGE/EVOLVE IN AN E-W FASHION ALONG THE WARM FRONT. WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG ATOP THE COOLER AIRMASS SEVERE ELEVATED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST ACROSS SRN MN IN ADDITION TO THE LARGE HAIL THREAT WITH WARM SECTOR SUPERCELLS. ACTIVITY SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP SWWD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG THE ADVANCING SFC BOUNDARY ACROSS WRN IA INTO SERN NEB. FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE DRYLINE...STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS SHOULD EASILY REMOVE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ACROSS WRN OK INTO NWRN TX. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION AS TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE 90S WHERE SFC DEW POINTS HOLD IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER-MID 60S. SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND LARGE HAIL...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT NEAR DUSK AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK AND BEFORE CONVECTION DECOUPLES FROM BOUNDARY LAYER. ..DARROW/HURLBUT.. 04/09/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Macintosh Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 I feel alcohol is to blame for this rant session. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Agree, and its Friday night so it may be the booze talkin...Good ole Bow! Likely the booze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 9, 2011 Author Share Posted April 9, 2011 game on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Askew Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 New Day 1 is here http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html MDT posted for SO. MN. N Iowa Border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 y'all can disagree... A MW/GL winter thread equivalent to this outbreak would be close to if not on its 2nd thread. Now I have to weed through tornado alley BS to get to the beef of what might happen in Iowa or where the chasers in the MW are setting up south of here.. Never does anybody really give a **** about, MN, WI and MI in the super aerial threads. If I didn't have class on Monday i'd be roaming WI, we are still deciding the risk/reward travelling east towards the cities on sunday. I think Western WI is gonna gonna see some long trackers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Agree, and its Friday night so it may be the booze talkin...Good ole Bow! Good thought...I forgot to consider that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 New Day 2 outlook says an upgrade to HIGH risk is likely later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 New Day 2 outlook says an upgrade to HIGH risk is likely later. Along with saying a tornado outbreak is possible sunday afternoon into evening... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 game on. Go chase it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 New Day 2 outlook says an upgrade to HIGH risk is likely later. "THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT POSSIBILITY FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA. AN UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS A PORTION OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY IN LATER OUTLOOKS." A little surprised with the evolution differences and timing amongst guidance. Hard forecast--I am a little surprised they mention high right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Hmm, I'm sort of puzzled as to why the slight risk area on day 2 wasn't expanded east, especially given that the slower NAM is coming in line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Sioux Falls FTW, plus we can creep east on 90 if we have 2 but I think the best storms will be along the western extension of the warm front near the dry line, could see some quick moving tor's and if things can really clear out we might inch a bit further north, initialization worries me right now, we aren't early summer with sun til 10, I still think we see storms pop around 6 ish along the NE border and ride NE with a couple of decent tors but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 New Day 2 outlook says an upgrade to HIGH risk is likely later. It also has 70 to 80% of Wisconsin in Moderate risk! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Hmm, I'm sort of puzzled as to why the slight risk area on day 2 wasn't expanded east, especially given that the slower NAM is coming in line. gfs and sref seemed a bit more progressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 9, 2011 Author Share Posted April 9, 2011 Go chase it I plan to... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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