SmokeEater Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0377 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1101 PM CDT FRI APR 08 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NORTHERN OK AND SOUTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL KS INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST MO CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 108... VALID 090401Z - 090500Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 108 CONTINUES. TORNADO WATCH 108 CONTINUES UNTIL 06Z...WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT GENERALLY FOCUSED ALONG THE NORTHERN OK/SOUTHERN KS BORDER VICINITY. A PERSISTENT SUPERCELL CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS FAR NORTHERN OK...NOW EAST OF I-35 IN KAY COUNTY AS OF 04Z. IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THE PRIMARY/MOST CONCENTRATED SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN WITH THIS SUPERCELL ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OK/PERHAPS EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS. WHILE NEAR-SURFACE CINH CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY INCREASE PER OBSERVATIONAL/OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS TRENDS...RELATIVELY MOIST/UNSTABLE INFLOW IN THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND A STRONGLY SHEARED/HIGH HELICITY ENVIRONMENT /EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 50+ KT AND EFFECTIVE SRH AROUND 400 M2 PER S2/...WILL SUPPORT STORM SUSTENANCE WITH A CONTINUED LARGE HAIL/BRIEF TORNADO THREAT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME DEGREE OF UPSCALE GROWTH MAY OCCUR /WITH A MODEST FORWARD ACCELERATION/ AND YIELD A CONTINUED SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREAT EVENTUALLY TOWARD THE I-44 VICINITY OF FAR NORTHEAST OK/EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS AND SOUTHWEST MO. FARTHER NORTH...A RELATIVELY MORE CHAOTIC STORM MODE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH SPORADIC SEVERE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS OTHERWISE REMAINING POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL KS. ..GUYER.. 04/09/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 1126 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... WESTERN OSAGE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA * UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT * AT 1121 PM CDT...STORM CHASERS WERE TRACKING A TORNADO LOCATED 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF BURBANK...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. A TORNADO HAS BEEN REPORTED...TAKE COVER NOW! * SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...BURBANK AND SHIDLER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Nice Theta-E influx into west-central Iowa late tomorrow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 9, 2011 Author Share Posted April 9, 2011 really cool looping velocity on that guy seeing it cycle many times, looks wrapped up now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Askew Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Storms may be merging finally, W flank now has more dominant look to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 I'm not the one constantly asking if it's about to touch down, lolz http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bPtksu8_zE0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 After examining the new NAM I really like the area between Sioux City and Omaha along the Missouri late tomorrow. NAM depicts a dryline bulge heading into that area at 00z. Also, a nice wind profile combined with cape shown in excess of 3000j/kg. NAM also erodes the cap pretty nicely by 00z as well. With the dryline bulge moving in, combined with increasing low-level jet, and incoming mid-level jet energy this area should ignite before sunset. Using a virtual temperature correction, there's zero cinh in that sounding, and given the very steep low level lapse rates, you could practically sneeze and get initiation with a sounding like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 110 kts G2G, western area of rotation looks to be taking over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Still cant decide if we are gonna chase day 2 on sunday but we will probably hit up SE south dakota tomorrow. I really like that little curl into SD of nearly every parameter, remains to be seen if it actually occurs but sioux city is our initial target. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BadgerWXman Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Wow that thing is a beast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Using a virtual temperature correction, there's zero cinh in that sounding, and given the very steep low level lapse rates, you could practically sneeze and get initiation with a sounding like that. Yeah I think it'll be enough to get the job done. I'm just hoping the timing with the increasing wind fields is correct. Any delay will hold off the convection until after sunset. The GFS is a bit slower with the dryline "bulge" but I think with as much mixing as there will be tomorrow afternoon a slightly further east placement like the NAM may be more reasonable. I guess we'll find out in about 18-22hrs LOL. Either way we're heading west tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 1153 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... WESTERN OSAGE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA PAWNEE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA * UNTIL 1215 AM CDT * AT 1150 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 12 MILES WEST OF FAIRFAX...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE... DAMAGING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL... DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH... * SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...FAIRFAX AND RALSTON. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF DEVELOPING A BOW ECHO WHICH COULD PRODUCE A SWATH OF DAMAGING WINDS FOR QUITE SOME TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 The new high res 4km WRF erupts storms in northeast Nebraska early evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 9, 2011 Author Share Posted April 9, 2011 Using a virtual temperature correction, there's zero cinh in that sounding, and given the very steep low level lapse rates, you could practically sneeze and get initiation with a sounding like that. I will hope for some serious allergies for a 90 min window late tomorrow afternoon lol c ya'll out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 the irony of this outbreak, at least up here in MN, the 2011 MN Skywarn workshop is starting at 8 am and goes until 5, over in minny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 I will hope for some serious allergies for a 90 min window late tomorrow afternoon lol c ya'll out there. Maybe we'll see you while chasing...or at a hotel later on...or Wendy's in your case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 lol wtf is this......... rgem ftw? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Hope to run into some of you guys saturday evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 9, 2011 Author Share Posted April 9, 2011 Maybe we'll see you while chasing...or at a hotel later on...or Wendy's in your case. Wendy's is your best bet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Wendy's is your best bet Haha hopefully many of us will be at a steakhouse instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 FWIW, the St. Louis WRF lights 'er up later today over western Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 I know myself and others have been mentioning this next trof coming in later in the week into the weekend and it looks like atleast a few days could have some good potential. It's too early to work out the details but both the GFS/Euro are showing this trof coming out into the plains by the weekend. Too tired from chasing today to type much more. Chasing thread is all these super US aerial coverage threads are.. For fricks sake there is not even a specified area location for the thread. I don't give a **** about severe weather in Oklahoma/ect for the MW and I have to weed through the BS to get info... Winter MW threads are king, severe weather threads are for the clique and chasers.. Terrible for those in the upper MW. Carry on with your fail severe threads though. Might as well just include the rest of the eastern 3rd of the country to those in the upper MW that nobody cares about and move it to the main board and complete the cluster **** severe threads that are over here for the north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Chasing thread is all these super US aerial coverage thread are.. For fricks sake there is not even a specified area location for the thread. I don't give a **** about severe weather in Oklahoma/ect for the MW and I have to weed through the BS to get info... Winter MW threads are king, severe weather threads are for the clique and chasers.. Terrible for those in the upper MW. Carry on with your fail severe threads though. Might as well just include the rest of the eastetn 3rd of the country to those in the upper MW and move it to the main board and complete the cluster **** severe threads are over here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Clique/chaser weather thread... who gives a **** about the north. same as in winter pretty much I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Chasing thread is all these super US aerial coverage threads are.. For fricks sake there is not even a specified area location for the thread. I don't give a **** about severe weather in Oklahoma/ect for the MW and I have to weed through the BS to get info... Winter MW threads are king, severe weather threads are for the clique and chasers.. Terrible for those in the upper MW. Carry on with your fail severe threads though. Might as well just include the rest of the eastern 3rd of the country to those in the upper MW that nobody cares about and move it to the main board and complete the cluster **** severe threads that are over here for the north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Chasing thread is all these super US aerial coverage threads are.. For fricks sake there is not even a specified area location for the thread. I don't give a **** about severe weather in Oklahoma/ect for the MW and I have to weed through the BS to get info... Winter MW threads are king, severe weather threads are for the clique and chasers.. Terrible for those in the upper MW. Carry on with your fail severe threads though. Might as well just include the rest of the eastern 3rd of the country to those in the upper MW that nobody cares about and move it to the main board and complete the cluster **** severe threads that are over here for the north If you and other posters from this far north posted on these threads more, it wouldn't be a problem. You just posted that you didn't want to use your umbrella anyways in Spring, so I'm sure you don't want any part of this severe weather outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Chasing thread is all these super US aerial coverage threads are.. For fricks sake there is not even a specified area location for the thread. I don't give a **** about severe weather in Oklahoma/ect for the MW and I have to weed through the BS to get info... Winter MW threads are king, severe weather threads are for the clique and chasers.. Terrible for those in the upper MW. Carry on with your fail severe threads though. Might as well just include the rest of the eastern 3rd of the country to those in the upper MW that nobody cares about and move it to the main board and complete the cluster **** severe threads that are over here for the north Sorry Bow but I have to disagree with all of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iowahawkeyedave Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Chasing thread is all these super US aerial coverage threads are.. For fricks sake there is not even a specified area location for the thread. I don't give a **** about severe weather in Oklahoma/ect for the MW and I have to weed through the BS to get info... Winter MW threads are king, severe weather threads are for the clique and chasers.. Terrible for those in the upper MW. Carry on with your fail severe threads though. Might as well just include the rest of the eastern 3rd of the country to those in the upper MW that nobody cares about and move it to the main board and complete the cluster **** severe threads that are over here for the north I live in the upper midwest, and I guess I don't care if there's not a specified area. With the current outbreak anticipated it's probably best that there isn't a specified area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 I don't give a sh!t about Oklahoma storms.. I want a severe thread to read and discuss like we do in winter for the surrounding states in the MW/Lakes. Not some cluster**** like this thread that spreads a 1000 miles to my s/sw.. nobody cares about that area in winter storm threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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