wisconsinwx Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Sheesh on those present sig tors...40 for Madison, 30 for Rockford, and 20 up to the Chicago shoreline on Sunday evening! Those are the chances of a sig tornado within 25 miles, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Askew Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 About the best thing on radar all day here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 There's some good low level helicity as these storms approach ne KS, but I would assume they are elevated and hence the svr watch for hail is the predominant expectation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ilstormchaser Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 From a chasing standpoint if the NAM verifies tonight it may be a nightmare on Sunday. Very fast moving storms and the MS river, not to mention the best parameters at 7pm heading in Southwest WI. Hopefully this thing slows down and the MS river will not be an issue and the the good stuff will fire during the daytime in Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 9, 2011 Author Share Posted April 9, 2011 I'm still trying to figure out tomorrow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 00z NAM doesn't really back the surface winds much on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Those are the chances of a sig tornado within 25 miles, correct? I believe that is the chance of those ingredients coming together, not necessarily a significant tornado within 25 miles but someone can correct me if I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 I'm still trying to figure out tomorrow.. I have almost entirely given up. I will check the models early in the AM, to see if they have changed, but as of now, its a no-go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 In order to have severe, you have to have storms first. The last few severe threads have had a lot of the ingredients coming together but convection didn't pan out as expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 NAM still thinks IA for late afternoon and evening tor possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 00z NAM doesn't really back the surface winds much on Sunday. Has anyone mentioned the 'Day 3 Moderate Risk Curse' yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Askew Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Has anyone mentioned the 'Day 3 Moderate Risk Curse' yet? LOL You did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Definitely some questions whether surface based convection fires south of the warm front later tomorrow over Iowa. Certainly will be very intense elevated cells firing north of the front late tomorrow or tomorrow evening. Of course from a chasing stand point we want surface based storms. I have my doubts that anything fires before sunset, but we're heading out to western Iowa anyway. My gut feeling is we'll see initiation in central Iowa Sunday anyway, so worst case scenario we'll be in pretty good shape for staging Sunday morning. Tomorrow may be a blue sky bust south of the warm front, but the parameters are just too enticing too ignore lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Definitely some questions whether surface based convection fires south of the warm front later tomorrow over Iowa. Certainly will be very intense elevated cells firing north of the front late tomorrow or tomorrow evening. Of course with a chasing stand point we want surface based storms. I have my doubts that anything fires before sunset, but we're heading out to western Iowa anyway. My gut feeling is we'll see initiation in central Iowa Sunday anyway, so worst case scenario we'll be in pretty good shape for staging Sunday morning. Tomorrow may be a blue sky bust south of the warm front, but the parameters are just too enticing too ignore lol. Copied over from my FB post on this: Interesting 21Z SREF run. The ETA and NMM members were mostly or totally oblivious of the convection over OK/KS/MO, and the ones that did don't have anything until after 06-09Z. The ARW and RSM members are all over it for the most part, however. These players change little for tomorrow's convection chances, which (in my mind) lends some credence to the ARW/RSM guidance (even though the RSM can be trigger happy sometimes). The stiff divide between the GFS and the NAM on initiation has been interesting as well, but given how the NAM performed last week and today, I'm inclined to chalk it up to the NAM being the pile it usually is with these scenarios (note that it didn't really pick up on today's potential until the 12Z run). Regardless, I'm going to be hunched over a 12Z surface and sounding analysis tomorrow morning to hammer this out the right way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Has anyone mentioned the 'Day 3 Moderate Risk Curse' yet? LOL. It's possible, but with such incredible mid level jet structure, deep moisture, and very intense surface heating I'd be a bit surprised if the setup collapsed regarding widespread severe. The tornado threat of course is still debatable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Have looked at a few models but even if it's minimal when will severe weather most likey hit SE MI? Sunday night into early monday? There's also the chance for marginal severe weather Sunday morning (see GRR's discussion). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 After seeing what happened today, I am betting that we will see surface based convection tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Copied over from my FB post on this: Interesting 21Z SREF run. The ETA and NMM members were mostly or totally oblivious of the convection over OK/KS/MO, and the ones that did don't have anything until after 06-09Z. The ARW and RSM members are all over it for the most part, however. These players change little for tomorrow's convection chances, which (in my mind) lends some credence to the ARW/RSM guidance (even though the RSM can be trigger happy sometimes). The stiff divide between the GFS and the NAM on initiation has been interesting as well, but given how the NAM performed last week and today, I'm inclined to chalk it up to the NAM being the pile it usually is with these scenarios (note that it didn't really pick up on today's potential until the 12Z run). Regardless, I'm going to be hunched over a 12Z surface and sounding analysis tomorrow morning to hammer this out the right way. Yeah that's a good point. The convection in Oklahoma and southern Kansas tonight was a pretty good sign overall IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Chase Summary... Myself (freshman met student), 3 senior met students, and a business major went out on a chase today. Left at 1:30 p.m. and drove out to Hinton, OK so we'd be in a position to go either north or south depending on what happened. Eventually left Hinton around 4:15 when it became clear that nothing was going to from to the SW. Drove up to Watonga and over to Kingfisher; noticed a developing cell during this time. Drove north from Kingfisher up to Hennessey and it was clear that stuff was firing up. Went east and north on 2 more roads from Hennessey. Had to decide whether to keep on the original cell or go for one further to the NE of us. Decided to keep on the original one. Eventually stopped at the intersection of SR-74 and U.S. 412 east of Enid. Friend pointed out that the radar showed good rotation very near us, but we couldn't see anything. Eventually realized the good rotation was basically over us, and immediately got out of the car and started filming. There was definite rotation but nothing ever touched and in hindsight this was as close as anything got to touching down (as an aside the storm was never tornado warned). Headed east on U.S. 412 and then turned north onto I-35 b/c 412 became a toll road. This was a mistake, as we thought we could get north to the next exit before the hail core beared down upon us. This was not the case. Once it became clear that we were gonna be hit by hail, we pulled off the road and rode it out with many other cars on the side of I-35, both chaser & non-chaser. Saw hail up to the size of hen eggs (2.00") but luckily it was soft hail (much of it shattered upon impact w/ the ground) so my friend's car did not get dented. Ended up following the storm a little more but it started to weaken soon after so we called it a day around Red Rock. This was personally my first chase so the summary probably leaves a lot to be desired but I figured I may as well post it. Have uploaded some pics that complement the summary & pics of the hail (we waited a good 5 mins after the last of the hail storm was done to get out so some melting may have occurred). Currently uploading the video of the funnel cloud...will post when its uploaded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 You gotta love the way the surface low is forecast to rapidly deepen during the afternoon Sunday on all the guidance. That's definitely a good thing regarding tornado potential. Nice pics above btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Askew Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Sweet hail catch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 9, 2011 Author Share Posted April 9, 2011 pretty different look to the 850mb winds over the western half of IA compared to previous runs (yesterday's) nice southerly to slightly backed flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Chase Summary... Nice. Congrats on a decent first chase. I assume even that was a million times better then anything you've chased in SEMI. Also, the first picture of the hail looks kinda weird...almost like a snowball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Nice. Congrats on a decent first chase. I assume even that was a million times better then anything you've chased in SEMI. Also, the first picture of the hail looks kinda weird...almost like a snowball. It was very soft hail and melted very quickly, so I can see why you would use the snowball comparison. And yes, this shattered my old hail record (0.88")...and I was able to enjoy it since it did not damage my friend's car. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Mesonet station in the area of this, just measured an 82 knot gust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 1114 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... EASTERN KAY COUNTY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... * UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT * AT 1114 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 8 MILES WEST OF KAW CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Mesonet station in the area of this, just measured an 82 knot gust. Reported tornado too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 After examining the new NAM I really like the area between Sioux City and Omaha along the Missouri late tomorrow. NAM depicts a dryline bulge heading into that area at 00z. Also, a nice wind profile combined with cape shown in excess of 3000j/kg. NAM also erodes the cap pretty nicely by 00z as well. With the dryline bulge moving in, combined with increasing low-level jet, and incoming mid-level jet energy this area should ignite before sunset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Spotter reports tornado looks to have gone through the town of Kildare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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