TheWeatherPimp Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 Very impressive looking for Saturday Night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 Didn't know you chased, we'll have to meet up sometime. This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ilstormchaser Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 Saturday has the makings of a major severe weather outbreak including tornadoes for the Midwest. I am liking what I see especially across Iowa. 850 mb and 500 mb winds look great, plenty of sbcape ( 2000+ in a large area, most likley a lot more), li's between -6 to -8, breakable cap, mid-upper 60's dewponts, strong southerly surface winds, and the list goes on and on. It's still several days out, however if the GFS verifies we may be looking at a high end moderate/low end high risk type of day. I smell tors especially for Iowa. Perfect timing for my wife to have a B-day get together Saturday night meaning a no go chasing wise for me. Geez... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 Saturday has the makings of a major severe weather outbreak including tornadoes for the Midwest. I am liking what I see especially across Iowa. 850 mb and 500 mb winds look great, plenty of sbcape ( 2000+ in a large area, most likley a lot more), li's between -6 to -8, breakable cap, mid-upper 60's dewponts, strong southerly surface winds, and the list goes on and on. It's still several days out, however if the GFS verifies we may be looking at a high end moderate/low end high risk type of day. I smell tors especially for Iowa. Perfect timing for my wife to have a B-day get together Saturday night meaning a no go chasing wise for me. Geez... Iowa again lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 Euro is still 12-18 hours slower than the GFS, FWIW. I see Saturday being a Plains threat with the possibility of some warm-frontal activity farther east, and Sunday being the big, synoptically-evident outbreak day for the Midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 Euro is still 12-18 hours slower than the GFS, FWIW. I see Saturday being a Plains threat with the possibility of some warm-frontal activity farther east, and Sunday being the big, synoptically-evident outbreak day for the Midwest. Agree completely. Wouldn't be surprised to see a decent tornado threat develop along the warm front on Saturday. The only thing that worries me with that scenario is that the models have been to slow with the last few storms and the storms have actually ejected to the NE quicker than what was progged, but needless to say, it continues to look like one of the best outbreak set-ups of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 Matt, you might as well change this to include the 7th since the SPC has a slight risk out on Thursday instead of having a separate thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 Anybody chasing this weekend, particularly Sunday, is going to have some difficulty I think. Still early but if this holds, I would expect average storm motions anywhere from 50-70 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 5, 2011 Author Share Posted April 5, 2011 Anybody chasing this weekend, particularly Sunday, is going to have some difficulty I think. Still early but if this holds, I would expect average storm motions anywhere from 50-70 mph. I think both days could have fast storm motion problems. The GFS has H7 winds progged at 40-55kt for saturday. I wont even mention sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 I think both days could have fast storm motion problems. The GFS has H7 winds progged at 40-55kt for saturday. I wont even mention sunday. Sunday looks like a classic one and done. Position yourself wisely, get your shot and then wave goodbye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 5, 2011 Author Share Posted April 5, 2011 holy smoke.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 holy smoke.. Quad Cities seems the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 5, 2011 Author Share Posted April 5, 2011 Quad Cities seems the place. this was already posted, and there is no way you can pick an area this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 this was already posted, and there is no way you can pick an area this far out. Missed it. Of course no one can pick an exact place almost 5 days out. But thanks for looking out for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 IWX already using the O word but they are favoring a slower solution FORECAST MODELS STILL ON TRACK TO SUPPORT A VERY VIGOROUS SYSTEM INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS SUN. MASSIVE HEIGHT FALLS WITH A STRONG 110+ KNOT MID LEVEL JET STEAK OVER APPRECIABLE LL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IN THE WESTERN MIDWEST...GIVEN BULK SHEAR VALUES NEAR 80 KNOTS/A STAUNCH EML IN PLACE SUPPORTING A PERIOD OF CONVECTIVE SUPPRESSION/AND AMPLE LL INSTABILITY IN PLACE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 I don't care, im chasing Saturday regardless...big tubes, and giant wedges for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 MKX thinks the CWA will see two rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms, one late Saturday and the other late Sunday. That'd be an interesting/exciting weekend if it can be realized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ilstormchaser Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 The European as others have mentioned hold things back until Sunday for the Midwest. I hope this is the case as it would be a win win sitiuation for me as I could go to my wifes b-day party Saturday night and then go chasing Sunday. It would be nice though to see those winds backed a tad more over the Midwest (SSE) Saturday instead of southerly if you trust the GFS. Southerly winds will work of course. Can't get too greedy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 The European as others have mentioned hold things back until Sunday for the Midwest. I hope this is the case as it would be a win win sitiuation for me as I could go to my wifes b-day party Saturday night and then go chasing Sunday. It would be nice though to see those winds backed a tad more over the Midwest (SSE) Saturday instead of southerly if you trust the GFS. Southerly winds will work of course. Can't get too greedy. Hopefully you will be able to stay around home or drive east Sunday rather than west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 MKX thinks the CWA will see two rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms, one late Saturday and the other late Sunday. That'd be an interesting/exciting weekend if it can be realized. SSE winds suck for warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 SSE winds suck for warmth. Yet you think MKE hits 80s on Sunday. contradiction for the win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 Yet you think MKE hits 80s on Sunday. contradiction for the win I don't think we'll realize SSE winds. I think the winds will be strong and gusty out of the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 I don't think we'll realize SSE winds. I think the winds will be strong and gusty out of the SW. So you're saying the local office is contradictory? Ok, but I'll trust them over a warmth-biased weather fan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 LOT brought this up in today's "Weather Story" on their page. If they are thinking about it this far out.... makes me wonder. I will be paying attention to this, looks like good potential for Sunday around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 LOT brought this up in today's "Weather Story" on their page. If they are thinking about it this far out.... makes me wonder. I will be paying attention to this, looks like good potential for Sunday around here. Skilling is also throwing out hints he's watching this on his FB page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 IND has some comments too... THE MAIN SHOW THOUGH WILL BE ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AS A VERY POTENT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A 100 PLUS KT UPPER LEVEL JET THAT EVENING. UNLIKE PREVIOUS STORM SYSTEMS SO FAR THIS SPRING...THIS ONE WILL HAVE SOME INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH AS WELL AS DYNAMICS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ilstormchaser Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 One thing that I have noticed with the 18z gfs for Iowa on saturday anyway is that the surface winds are not backed nearly as much as they are in east central KS and that the 850/500 mb winds also look better as far as shear goes in East Central KS. Was chatting with a friend earlier tonight and he said that Central OK is really dry attm and I am sort of wondering what effect this may have on this upcoming system and the rest of the systems the rest of the year for OK? Perhaps the dry lines will setup further east than normal the rest of the year for the most part? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 I wouldn't buy into the EURO's solution just yet. In these types of setups the ECMWF has a bias of not being progressive enough. The GFS usually schools it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 I wouldn't buy into the EURO's solution just yet. In these types of setups the ECMWF has a bias of not being progressive enough. The GFS usually schools it. This Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 This 12z GFS was really a fast outlier though. 18z run slowed down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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