SmokeEater Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 108 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 535 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2011 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL INTO EAST CENTRAL KANSAS WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 535 PM UNTIL 100 AM CDT. ISOLATED TORNADOES SCATTERED LARGE HAIL ISOLATED HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH OF CLINTON OKLAHOMA TO 25 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF CHANUTE KANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 106...WW 107... DISCUSSION...TSTMS HAVE FORMED IN THE PAST HALF HOUR ALONG LOW-LVL CONFLUENCE AXIS OVER N CNTRL OK. TWRG CU EXTEND SSW FROM THAT AREA ALONG DRY LINE INTO SW OK. SFC-BASED CU ALSO ARE APPARENT ALONG W/E FRONT OVER S CNTRL/E CNTRL KS. DESPITE APPARENT RIDGING ALOFT /PER WV IMAGERY/...COMBINATION OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND LOW-LVL CONFLUENCE MAY SUPPORT SUSTAINED STORMS/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/LOCALLY DMGG WIND THROUGH LATE EVE. WHILE LOW-LVL SHEAR ATTM IS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FOR TORNADOES...EXPECTED STRENGTHENING OF 850-700 MB FLOW AFTER DARK INTERACTING WITH EXISTING SUSTAINED STORMS MAY YIELD A THREAT FOR TORNADOES. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24025. ...CORFIDI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 616 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2011 OKC047-053-082330- /O.CON.KOUN.SV.W.0007.000000T0000Z-110408T2330Z/ GARFIELD OK-GRANT OK- 616 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2011 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN GRANT AND NORTHEASTERN GARFIELD COUNTIES... AT 615 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES EAST OF BRECKENRIDGE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. ANOTHER SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF POND CREEK...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH. BOTH STORMS WILL PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL. HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE... DESTRUCTIVE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS... WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH... * LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BRECKENRIDGE...GARBER...HUNTER... JEFFERSON...KREMLIN...LAMONT...MEDFORD AND POND CREEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 Mike Phelps has a wall cloud and cone shaped funnel. http://stormscapelive.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 GFS hold tight to its earlier frontal system passage through this area - shows Sunday night vs Monday morning. NAM won't budge though. Noticed some offices believe the faster version is correct because of the positive tilt. Defin makes a big difference in how things unfold. Go with the Euro. NAM 18Z run did tick a bit faster and the 18Z GFS ticked a bit slower towards the Euro. The NAM still has a lot more to correct itself though--the NAM is showing how worthless it is here. SREF is also a solid 6-9 hours faster than the slow NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 Cell has made a hard right turn, still has broad rotation, let's see what it does now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 Little OT, very strong couplet with the TW in VA. ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT FOR NORTHERN CARROLL...WESTERN FLOYD AND SOUTHERN PULASKI COUNTIES... AT 733 PM EDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH EXTREMELY STRONG ROTATION. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR PULASKI...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH. THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... DRAPER... ALLISONIA... INDIAN VALLEY... DUGSPUR... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO...TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICEHOCEY77 Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 Wow, out of scope of this thread. But that Virginia cell is a monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 644 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... EASTERN KAY COUNTY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... * UNTIL 715 PM CDT * AT 644 PM CDT...STORM SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR KILDARE... OR ABOUT 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NEWKIRK...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. * LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE KILDARE AND NORTHERN KAW LAKE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Here is LOT"s briefing for those that missed it - from Gino himself. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lot/?n=webbriefing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxologist Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 We've started running the CIPS analogs experimentally in the warm season: http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/WARM/stats.php?reg=DOM3&fhr=060&model=NAM212 Use the output with caution...however...the top 15 analogs are capturing the large-scale pattern of the forecast well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 SPC meso discussion indicates the expectation of an additional watch downstream from the present tor watch in KS and OK. And Justin, good luck in the Quad Cities area on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0376 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0832 PM CDT FRI APR 08 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN OK AND SOUTH-CENTRAL/EASTERN KS INTO WESTERN MO CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 108... VALID 090132Z - 090300Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 108 CONTINUES. TORNADO WATCH 108 CONTINUES UNTIL 06Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/WESTERN OK AND SOUTH-CENTRAL/EASTERN KS. AN ADDITIONAL WATCH IS PROBABLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST KS/WEST-CENTRAL MO. SUPERCELLS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/SPLIT ACROSS FAR NORTH-CENTRAL OK AND SOUTH-CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST KS...ROUGHLY IN A CORRIDOR 50-70 MILES EITHER SIDE OF I-35. LEFT SPLITTING/MOVING STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A LARGE HAIL THREAT AS THEY MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL KS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WHILE RIGHT/EASTWARD MOVING SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A LARGE HAIL/ISOLATED TORNADO RISK IN THE SHORT TERM. AIDED BY A STRENGTHENING EASTERN BRANCH LOW LEVEL JET...THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE/EXPAND GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD /WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR AND NORTH OF/ A WEST-EAST BOUNDARY ROUGHLY THAT CURRENTLY RESIDES PARALLEL TO /BUT SOUTH OF/ I-70 IN KS AND MO. STEEP LAPSE ENVIRONMENT/AMPLE BUOYANCY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A DOMINANT THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. WHILE THE LIKELIHOOD THEREOF IS UNCLEAR...ONGOING RIGHT MOVING/SURFACE BASED TSTMS COULD ULTIMATELY CONGEAL WITH TIME INTO A LOOSELY ORGANIZED EAST-NORTHEAST MOVING COMPLEX ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS DEVELOPING INTO WESTERN MO LATER TONIGHT. ..GUYER.. 04/09/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Boy explosive I think is the word here for Sunday. I am very impressed with the set up. All that said, I can't help but be a bit cautious, if that dry line feature slips thru here to quickly we may see the best stuff just get going right over us and then miss to the East. I really think the highest tornado threat is going to set up across SE MN, WCNTRL/SW WI, and NE IA. This is the area I think that could really get a couple of bad, bad tornadoes. I think there will certainly be a tornado threat down thru here and points E across NRN IL/WI as the late afternoon/evening progress Sunday. This set up and situation has my attention believe it. Everyone needs to be paying attention to this. The atmospheric conditions seem very similar to the day Iowa City had their tornado a couple years back almost to the day this set up is occurring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Askew Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Tiny severe thunderstorm near Kansas City Hail anyone? Please move vehicles under shelter.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Askew Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Decent couplet on New Tor. warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Tor warning for tail end charley BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 909 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... CENTRAL GRANT COUNTY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... * UNTIL 945 PM CDT * AT 909 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF JEFFERSON...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. * LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE DEER CREEK...JEFFERSON...LAMONT AND MEDFORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Right near Medford, OK, too, right where the wedge was last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Askew Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Decent couplet on New Tor. warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 The 0z NAM has development across SE. S. Dakota, SW. Minnesota and N. Iowa between 0-3z tomorrow evening. It also has development in the Nebraska/Kansas border area before sunrise Sunday monring. This activity then pushes towards the Mississippi by mid-morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 The 0z NAM has development across SE. S. Dakota, SW. Minnesota and N. Iowa between 0-3z tomorrow evening. 21z SREF probs are highest over this area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Right near Medford, OK, too, right where the wedge was last year If I remember correctly I think that was the tornado that chased Tom Skilling on his tornado chase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 21z SREF probs are highest over this area... Nighttime! hooray! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Overnight squall line on Sunday/Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Rather interesting comparison SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS 927 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2011 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM CDT FOR MORRIS COUNTY... AT 922 PM CDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING TEA CUP SIZE HAIL 4 MILES EAST OF WILSEY...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WILSEY...OR 7 MILES WEST OF COUNCIL GROVE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Rather interesting comparison SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS 927 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2011 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM CDT FOR MORRIS COUNTY... AT 922 PM CDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING TEA CUP SIZE HAIL 4 MILES EAST OF WILSEY...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WILSEY...OR 7 MILES WEST OF COUNCIL GROVE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. That's a standard NWS hail size. Seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Askew Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Michael Phelps demonstrating good nightime chasing strategy. Chaser tv Very nice nightime illimunation structure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Have looked at a few models but even if it's minimal when will severe weather most likey hit SE MI? Sunday night into early monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 I think SW Wisconsin is going to get hit REALLY hard from what I've been seeing, considering they have a 30-40% chance of seeing a sig tornado both late Saturday night and Sunday evening. We get our decent shot very late Sunday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Sheesh on those present sig tors...40 for Madison, 30 for Rockford, and 20 up to the Chicago shoreline on Sunday evening! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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