L.B. LaForce Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 Ohhh, looks like ill be leaving tomorrow night potentially. After my 9am class, I drive 1:45 mins to Battle Creek, pimp my vehicle all up-haha, then head out friday evening (assuming things still look good enough to waste gas at 3.89/gal ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 Ohhh, looks like ill be leaving tomorrow night potentially. After my 9am class, I drive 1:45 mins to Battle Creek, pimp my vehicle all up-haha, then head out friday evening (assuming things still look good enough to waste gas at 3.89/gal ) I just hope you don't miss out on some local action... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 Anybody else notice the SPC update an hour early for both day 1 and day 2???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 I got a friend to chase with me, we'll head out at 9 am Sunday and probably go west to wait for it to hit. I figure we can then follow it and catch up to supercells from the back. It's my first chase, but I know a fair amount about mesoscale meteorology and won't do anything stupid like drive into a hail shaft, or the tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 I got a friend to chase with me, we'll head out at 9 am Sunday and probably go west to wait for it to hit. I figure we can then follow it and catch up to supercells from the back. It's my first chase, but I know a fair amount about mesoscale meteorology and won't do anything stupid like drive into a hail shaft, or the tornado. You know I am surprised with how long you have been up in Madison that this will be your first chase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iowahawkeyedave Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 Looks like we got a day 3 moderate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 8, 2011 Author Share Posted April 8, 2011 DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0230 AM CDT FRI APR 08 2011 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SE MN...WI...ERN IA AND NW IL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY...MID-MS VALLEY...OZARKS AND SRN PLAINS... ...UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES... AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS SUNDAY WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CLOSING OFF OVER THE NRN PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A POWERFUL 55 TO 70 KT JET WILL TRANSPORT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY NWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MID 60S F. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHERE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FIRST DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG A WARM FRONT ACROSS IA...WI AND SRN MN WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION INITIATING ALONG THE COLD FRONT DURING THE EARLY EVENING EXTENDING SWD INTO NW MO. THIS IS EXPECTED AS THE EXIT REGION OF THE AN IMPRESSIVE 80 TO 100 KT MID-LEVEL JET SPREADS ACROSS THE UPPER-MIDWEST CREATING STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SEVERE STORMS. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES ESPECIALLY IN ERN IA...NW IL...SE MN AND SW WI WHERE A MODERATE RISK HAS BEEN PLACED. A FEW STRONG TORNADOES COULD OCCUR EITHER NEAR THE WARM FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON OR ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS DURING THE EARLY EVENING. AT THIS POINT...THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH THIS IS THE CASE...AM EXPECTING THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO BE A BIT SLOWER INTO THE PLAINS SO HAVE NUDGED THE MODERATE RISK A BIT SWWD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS... AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT PLAINS SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE PROBABLE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ALONG A COLD FRONT FROM ERN KS SWD INTO ERN OK AND ECNTRL TX WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST. DUE THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE COULD OCCUR DURING THE EARLY EVENING FROM WCNTRL MO SWD INTO NW AR AND NE OK. THE THREAT SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED IN SE OK AND ECNTRL TX BUT THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD STILL SUPPORT HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. ...UPPER OH VALLEY AND CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALSO MAY OCCUR JUST TO THE EAST OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IN THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS. IN THIS REGION...MODELS FORECAST AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MAINLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ..BROYLES.. 04/08/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 Have you guys been sitting up waiting for that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 day 3 moderate, holy ****, put up the shutters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 Not even a slight risk here! Wow. And I stayed up for that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 Beautiful discussion out of the Des Moines Office EXPLOSIVE SPRING SITUATION WILL EXIST ACROSS IOWA OVER THE WEEKEND. IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW IS ROTATING OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DIG FURTHER SOUTH TONIGHT...ENHANCING THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS IOWA BEFORE EJECTING OUT TOWARDS THE MIDWEST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE STATE. DESPITE ASSOCIATED MUCAPES OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ISOLATED DUE TO DRY MID LEVELS. A STRONG INVERSION NEAR 850 MB WILL BE IN PLACE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH STRATUS AND FOG LIKELY INCREASING BELOW THE INVERSION. THERE WILL BE TWO SFC WARM FRONTS LIFTING NORTH ON SATURDAY. THE FIRST SHOULD INCH INTO NORTHERN IA LATE IN THE DAY THOUGH STRATUS WILL LIKELY HOLD STRONG UNTIL THIS OCCURS AND COULD LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE SECOND BOUNDARY WILL SURGE NORTHWARD SATURDAY EVENING AS STRONG LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OVER COLORADO WITH THE APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH/UPPER LOW. A MOISTURE PLUME WILL SURGE NORTHWARD LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ALONG A DEVELOPING 55 KT LOW LEVEL JET. THIS FORCING SHOULD IGNITE THE HIGH INSTABILITIES IN PLACE. SHEAR PROFILES FAVOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND SUPERCELL ACTIVITY BY THE EVENING. STORMS THOUGH EARLY EVENING SHOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REMAIN SFC BASED. LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES IN EXCESS OF 200 M2/S2 WOULD FAVOR LOW LEVEL CIRCULATIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WARM FRONT. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND MELTING LAYER DEPTHS...VERY LARGE HAIL WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH ON SUNDAY AND COULD TURN INTO A VERY EXPLOSIVE AND POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION OVER IOWA. VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR EARLY APRIL WILL BE IN PLACE SUNDAY. THE SFC WARM FRONT SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE STATE EARLY IN THE DAY. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE THE PRE FRONTAL TROUGH/DRY LINE THAT WILL ENTER CENTRAL IOWA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT DISCRETE SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND RACE NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH. SFC WINDS LIKELY WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST INITIALLY IN THE DAY BUT SHOULD BACK TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES WITH 50 KTS NEAR 900 MB. ANY SUPERCELLS COULD QUICKLY BECOME TORNADIC WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG AND LONG TRACKED TORNADOES. CONSIDERING THE POTENTIAL AND VERY FAST STORM MOVEMENTS...THIS COULD BECOME AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION INTO THE EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL PASS THROUGH THE STATE ON MONDAY. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS FROM A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 50 MPH DURING THE DAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 looks like i picked the right weekend to fly home to mn. obviously, lots will come down to the LP track on sun, but such is april in the TC. mpx introduced svr wording and wrote a novel this morning on the afd. 6z gfs says build an ark too. the area certainly doesn't need another inch plus of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 If we can just get some surface based convection tomorrow.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 Call me superstitious, but it almost makes me nervous having a day 3 moderate risk lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Askew Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 Call me superstitious, but it almost makes me nervous having a day 3 moderate risk lol With ya there... We have busted before, we will bust again, hopefully not sunday though.. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 If we can just get some surface based convection tomorrow.......... Dont be so negative, we WILL get sfc based convection! I know it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Askew Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 Also the potential here in So Il for severe convection watching for a local Spotting backyard chase late today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 lol must be quite bored on the EC SPC seems fairly confident in storms going up INVOF the warm front west of I-35. Still like Nebraska City. i am actually thinking of heading to that area, only a 1hr drive east for me. Just hope to get into some action since i have to be at work at 11pm back in lincoln Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Askew Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 Dont be so negative, we WILL get sfc based convection! I know it I am certain of this, cap is only so strong this early in year. enough dynamics to overcome that. Hoping we will be in right places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 If this was last season i would be super confident that our warm front gets hung up well south Saturday night but I just don't think that's in the cards this time, that baby is coming north. Not so much severe related, but from an IMBY standpoint, i'm thinking a grazing late Sat night (prob good photo ops of storms to the north over the lake) followed by a full day of torching and eventual squal line. Good luck to everyone chasing, hopefully the best action doesn't set up in the hill country along the MS river valley. 12z NAM bring 2m dews over 65 to the shores of lake superior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 SREF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 If this was last season i would be super confident that our warm front gets hung up well south Saturday night but I just don't think that's in the cards this time, that baby is coming north. Not so much severe related, but from an IMBY standpoint, i'm thinking a grazing late Sat night (prob good photo ops of storms to the north over the lake) followed by a full day of torching and eventual squal line. Good luck to everyone chasing, hopefully the best action doesn't set up in the hill country along the MS river valley. 12z NAM bring 2m dews over 65 to the shores of lake superior. I am with ya on that. Looking at the setup, I think there is going to be no mucking around, we will be firmly in the warm sector around these parts... I wonder if SPC is going to go with a Day 2 moderate for this area. Making sure I have flashlights, and whatever else, just in case we lose power on Sunday night.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 I am with ya on that. Looking at the setup, I think there is going to be no mucking around, we will be firmly in the warm sector around these parts... I wonder if SPC is going to go with a Day 2 moderate for this area. Making sure I have flashlights, and whatever else, just in case we lose power on Sunday night.... I would say there is a very high chance that at least the size of the moderate area gets expanded pretty significantly as we get closer to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 I am with ya on that. Looking at the setup, I think there is going to be no mucking around, we will be firmly in the warm sector around these parts... I wonder if SPC is going to go with a Day 2 moderate for this area. Making sure I have flashlights, and whatever else, just in case we lose power on Sunday night.... The writing is on the wall as far as making it into the warm sector is concerned. Whether or not we get the forcing to coincide with the best instability is another thing. As it stands now I think the action arrives a little too late to tap into the best parameters, but we'll still have enough for a healthy line to come through. Now if we can get some forcing to come through ahead of the main front, then things could get wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 Thoughts about severe tonight eastern KS, Missouri, S ILL? The 12z NAM is pretty impressive with severe parameters tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 Arrggg, to chase, or not to chase saturday...leaning towards no atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 Arrggg, to chase, or not to chase saturday...leaning towards no atm. Definitely chasing, expecially with the parameters in place and the new 12z NAM breaking out convection just prior to 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 Wow the SPC completely removed a huge chunk of the risk for Sunday into Sunday night - I also see some NWS offices are not in agreement. Yeah as I stated, unless something drastic changes, I full expect a high risk in the areas currently under a moderate risk and a much more expansive moderate risk for Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TruePatriot Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 My chase target is Albert Lea / Austin, Minnesota for Sunday. Triple point should be just north and should see storms initiate in mid afternoon. Shear looks good as well. Plus this place is always a tornado magnet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.