Hoosier Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 Big differences between the NAM and GFS for our area. GFS is robust and brings the front through fairly fast- NAM hangs it back and everything falls about as it moves through Missouri. Leaving almost nothing by the time it gets here. NAM is much slower with the fronts movement. I noticed that too. Until something supports the uber slow NAM then I'd chalk it up to the NAM being the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 DTX THE SOUTHWEST CONUS TROUGH...AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WILL THEN PROGRESS EAST INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WOULD BE OUR FIRST DECENT CHANCE AT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS SPRING GIVEN THE AIRMASS THAT LIFTS INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE EARLY MONDAY MORNING SHOULD MITIGATE THIS POTENTIAL AS IT WILL BE AT THE DIURNAL MINIMUM FOR INSTABILITY. Dieing SEMI MCS anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 Big differences between the NAM and GFS for our area. GFS is robust and brings the front through fairly fast- NAM hangs it back and everything falls about as it moves through Missouri. Leaving almost nothing by the time it gets here. NAM is much slower with the fronts movement. Beau...I would imagine, even if these storms come through during the overnight or early morning hours they will likely still pack a punch. Must I bring up the line of storms that held its own all night across the south about a week ago? With the wind energy available (even more than the last one) storms will likely hold there own even with the unfavorable timing. I wouldn't focus on where the NAM is showing things convectively speaking. NAM sucks this far out in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 Well, was trying to set up a WRF model in that region, and I was installing the new WRF EMS, but then dwiz isnt working So I need to figure out whats up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 A slower timing per NAM would work better for locations like here east of L. MI for Monday, otherwise we'll be hard pressed to see anything substantial if convection arrives during the early morning and the frontal passage commences early in the afternoon/late morning. I'm not buying the NAM one bit until we're closing in on the event WRT timing. DTX Dieing SEMI MCS anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 FWIW, the new RGEM breaks the cap in southwest Iowa at 00z late Saturday. It did pretty well with the system last weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 8, 2011 Author Share Posted April 8, 2011 FWIW, the new RGEM breaks the cap in southwest Iowa at 00z late Saturday. It did pretty well with the system last weekend. Ya I'm thinking extreme southwest IA right now. Don't want to go all the way into KS to play the dryline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 Ya I'm thinking extreme southwest IA right now. Don't want to go all the way into KS to play the dryline. Yeah we'd much rather stay in that area as well, but we may have to dip southwest depending on how it shapes up as we go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 FWIW...The 0z GFS has development from the Omaha area down into NE. Kansas between 21-0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 FWIW...The 0z GFS has development from the Omaha area down into NE. Kansas between 21-0z. The new GFS soundings for that area look pretty good too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 Nice to see the GFS corrected itself off those last 3 bad runs with the northern stream squashing wave and the sheared junky looking elongated wave/weak IPV max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 GFS at 00z late Sat in the southwest corner of Iowa. Love the smooth and steady increase in wind velocity/turning with height. Very nice sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 8, 2011 Author Share Posted April 8, 2011 FWIW...The 0z GFS has development from the Omaha area down into NE. Kansas between 21-0z. I will take an order Nebraska City to go with the side order of 850mb dew points of 15 degrees C in that area at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 The sounding for the DVN area at 72hrs on the new GFS is pretty damn impressive too. Less directional shear compared to Saturday, but tremendous wind velocities through the column. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 8, 2011 Author Share Posted April 8, 2011 0z GFS def more impressive for sunday than the 12z from the sfc up all the way up, has a stronger sfc low at 986mb on the IA/MN border sunday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 The sounding for the DVN area at 72hrs on the new GFS is pretty damn impressive too. Less directional shear compared to Saturday, but tremendous wind velocities through the column. Just a quick check of some forecast soundings around central IL at 72 hours...looks like about 40 degrees of directional shear between the surface and 500 mb (mostly between the surface and 850 mb) with some decent speed shear. Is it good enough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 The GFS also looks about 10-15+ degrees too cool with surface temps in the warm sector, so surface cape is highly underdone as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 Just a quick check of some forecast soundings around central IL at 72 hours...looks like about 40 degrees of directional shear between the surface and 500 mb (mostly between the surface and 850 mb) with some decent speed shear. Is it good enough? The low-level shear has a nice turn to it, but sort of flattens out above 850mb. With such high momentum in the mid-levels, strong surface low to the northwest, and possibly some sort of a dryline type bulge I think it will get the job done. I would expect a strongly worded moderate when the new day3 arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 Between Dubuque and DVN late Sunday. Not too shabby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 The low-level shear has a nice turn to it, but sort of flattens out above 850mb. With such high momentum in the mid-levels, strong surface low to the northwest, and possibly some sort of a dryline type bulge I think it will get the job done. I would expect a strongly worded moderate when the new day3 arrives. VV's look blotchy on the GFS through 0z Monday after which it intensifies and becomes more linear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 8, 2011 Author Share Posted April 8, 2011 The low-level shear has a nice turn to it, but sort of flattens out above 850mb. With such high momentum in the mid-levels, strong surface low to the northwest, and possibly some sort of a dryline type bulge I think it will get the job done. I would expect a strongly worded moderate when the new day3 arrives. I dont know man, those are pretty rare lol but who knows. I would bet against it with the day 3 and guess a 30% hatched with mention of possible upgrade. Im curious as how they handle the day 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 I dont know man, those are pretty rare lol but who knows. I would bet against it with the day 3 and guess a 30% hatched with mention of possible upgrade. Im curious as how they handle the day 2. Last day 3 moderate I remember around here was 10/18/07. It stayed moderate through the event. I'm not sure if they would bring it into my area yet though if they decide to go that route. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 Even if this becomes linear it still looks horrifying for overnight. We could have wind reports to rival this past Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 VV's look blotchy on the GFS through 0z Monday after which it intensifies and becomes more linear. I wouldn't call it linear as in convective mode-not right away. Can't really rely on the GFS with its significant parametrizations of sub-grid scale convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 I dont know man, those are pretty rare lol but who knows. I would bet against it with the day 3 and guess a 30% hatched with mention of possible upgrade. Im curious as how they handle the day 2. Yeah I think a very very strongly worded 30% hatched will be forthcoming for the day 3. The day 2 is tough, I could also see the same thing and that they roll the dice hoping the 12z runs clear things up a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 Last day 3 moderate I remember around here was 10/18/07. It stayed moderate through the event. I'm not sure if they would bring it into my area yet though if they decide to go that route. http://www.spc.noaa....90511_0730.html http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/090513_rpts.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 http://www.spc.noaa....90511_0730.html http://www.spc.noaa....90513_rpts.html Interestingly enough, that one too stayed MOD all 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 Interestingly enough, that one too stayed MOD all 3 days. 6/7/07 was the only MDT that ended up being a HIGH day 1, if I recall correctly. (I feel like I'm missing one though.) I think at least 5 or 6 Day 3 MDT's have been issued... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 I wouldn't call it linear as in convective mode-not right away. Can't really rely on the GFS with its significant parametrizations of sub-grid scale convection. I'm not really relying on it, just commenting. But you can't tell me that the VV charts don't take on a more linear look between 00z-06z Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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