Indystorm Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 Today's 18z NAM has the STP farther to the east approaching Chicago and NW IN for late Sat. evening than did the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 Today's 18z NAM has the STP farther to the east approaching Chicago and NW IN for late Sat. evening than did the 12z run. Just think, this is for Saturday evening. Most of the offices are considering Sunday's event to have a greater chance of an outbreak. I can only imagine what could be a greater outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 Today's 18z NAM has the STP farther to the east approaching Chicago and NW IN for late Sat. evening than did the 12z run. Now if only there were going to be storms in those areas lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 Just think, this is for Saturday evening. Most of the offices are considering Sunday's event to have a greater chance of an outbreak. I can only imagine what could be a greater outbreak. Careful, the instability parameters for Saturday are stronger, but I would expect that Saturday's storms are going to be considerably less widespread, owing to the placement of triggering mechanisms and forcing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 Now if only there were going to be storms in those areas lol Ya, I didn't know what to make of that 18z STP data. Only one factor to be sure. Yet, Sebenste in his NIU blog is thinking Sat. night storms might move through far southern WI and northern IL and clip Chicago. He's unsure and will consider more data in his Friday blog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 Careful, the instability parameters for Saturday are stronger, but I would expect that Saturday's storms are going to be considerably less widespread, owing to the placement of triggering mechanisms and forcing. I understand this can't be taken at face value, but I didn't except the parameters to even be so good in Northern Illinois and Southern Wisconsin, esp since the forecast discussions weren't overly bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 ILX on the other hand discusses the increased tornado possibility: BY MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE ACTIVE IN OUR CWA. MODEL DIFFERENCES CREATE SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE. THE GFS HITS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THE HARDEST...WHILE THE ECMWF PROGRESSES STORMS FROM THE NW BEFORE MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS IN ALL COUNTIES FOR NOW...BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AND ALL THE INSTABILITY PARAMETERS THAT ARE COMING TOGETHER. VGP INDICES SHOW HIGH ROTATIONAL POTENTIAL FOR THE STORMS...WITH TORNADOES POSSIBLE. IT IS STILL VERY EARLY YET...BUT SUNDAY NIGHT COULD HAVE A PERIOD OF SEVERE WEATHER IN CENTRAL IL. ILX will be having a conference call for Sunday night's potential severe weather tomorrow afternoon as their forecast discussion indicates: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=ilx&product=HWO&issuedby=ilx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 Now if only there were going to be storms in those areas lol Ya, I didn't know what to make of that 18z STP data. Only one factor to be sure. Yet, Sebenste in his NIU blog is thinking Sat. night storms might move through far southern WI and northern IL and clip Chicago. He's unsure and will consider more data in his Friday blog. That's very possible, and even though they would likely be elevated by that time, we could still see some pretty nasty storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 That Hazardous Weather Outlook from NWS Lincoln Illinois is damning to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 I think our general game plan is to head towards Southern Iowa/Northern Missouri for Saturday Evening/Night and play the warm front. Sunday is still up in the air, most likely Western/West Central Illinois so we can get a good few hours of discrete action before things squall out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 I prefer Jon Davies STP parameter. Although this doesn't mean the storms will happen, just that there is the potential obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 Ya, Jon's model seems to be more realistic given the synoptics of a slowly northward progressing warm front. It amazes me how models can differ depending upon what parameters are factored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 LSX WRF/ARW isn't impressed with Saturday. Sunday, it has the initiation back in Eastern KS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 IWX WRF on the other hand says hello to Southern Iowa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 Do you have the base link for their model? St Louis also runs one http://www.crh.noaa..../?n=wrf_display Scratch that - I see that is St Louis - thought it was Central Illinois Office for some reason No worries! I will have to say that their updating of the model hasn't been the greatest lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 LSX WRF/ARW isn't impressed with Saturday. Sunday, it has the initiation back in Eastern KS. It does have development along the dry line Saturday evening from S. Nebraska down into Oklahoma, some of which pushes into Iowa later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 It does have development along the dry line Saturday evening from S. Nebraska down into Oklahoma, some of which pushes into Iowa later on. Not sure how they do severe weather wise, but I do know that during the winter the IWX WRF outperformed the LSX WRF almost constantly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 8, 2011 Author Share Posted April 8, 2011 Ya i usually don't look at the LSX/IWX WRF with severe weather so I couldn't tell ya how they perform. HRRR and 4km WRF FTW lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 Ya i usually don't look at the LSX/IWX WRF with severe weather so I couldn't tell ya how they perform. HRRR and 4km WRF FTW lol And we are getting into their time frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 It does have development along the dry line Saturday evening from S. Nebraska down into Oklahoma, some of which pushes into Iowa later on. Development, yes...but even DSM is hinting that those will be more hail and wind event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 Development, yes...but even DSM is hinting that those will be more hail and wind event. This is because they think development in their CWA will be elevated. If storms are surface based(which is quite possible), then all modes would be likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 8, 2011 Author Share Posted April 8, 2011 The 0z NAM is quicker with the warm front in IL this run bringing in past I-88 by 18z saturday but still along the IA/MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2011&model_mm=04&model_dd=08&model_init_hh=00&fhour=48¶meter=EHI&level=1000&unit=M&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false&sounding=y&sndclick=y&sounding.lat=41.8368&sounding.lon=-90.8789 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 8, 2011 Author Share Posted April 8, 2011 A serious increase in instability in northern IL this run...some places had near 1000 j/kg of CAPE on the 12z NAM and now its showing near 3500 j/kg on this run and actually all the CIN erased but no precip breaks out either INVOF the warm front or on the dryline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 The 0z NAM has development along the warm front near Omaha and along the dry line in Oklahoma between 0-3z...FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 The 00z NAM has freaking awesome potential across Northern Missouri/Iowa/Illinois if we can just get some storms to fire. I'm hoping there is a boundary or a weak wave that will spark a few storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 8, 2011 Author Share Posted April 8, 2011 The 0z NAM is breaking out a line of semi-discrete looking cells on the dryline sunday evening from southwest IA down to northeast OK with a isolated cell out ahead of it more in the warm sector in southeast IA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 Yeah I know it's 72h, but this is one of the most impressive low-level mixed layers I've ever seen depicted, especially in early April. If a squall line can congeal on Sunday the wind damage potential could be significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 You rarely see this kind of dewpoint gradient this far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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