Thundersnow12 Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 I know myself and others have been mentioning this next trof coming in later in the week into the weekend and it looks like atleast a few days could have some good potential. It's too early to work out the details but both the GFS/Euro are showing this trof coming out into the plains by the weekend. Too tired from chasing today to type much more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 I know myself and others have been mentioning this next trof coming in later in the week into the weekend and it looks like atleast a few days could have some good potential. It's too early to work out the details but both the GFS/Euro are showing this trof coming out into the plains by the weekend. Too tired from chasing today to type much more. I like the potential, as this has time to allow moisture to traverse further north. Certainly one to monitor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 This is going to come with some serious juice, as a large low-level subtropical ridge entrenches itself east of FL, which establishes southerly wind trajectories over the entire Gulf for 3-4 days before the main event. The GFS, ECMWF, and associated ensembles have been pretty consistent in showing a large trough ejecting out into the Central U.S. I like the looks of this one better than any other setup this season this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 Despite decent looking dynamics on Euro, capping looks to be a big issue until Sunday. I so want a negative tilted trough or a bowling ball down here. 7 pm CDT Sunday, 850 mb temps look reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 Nothing like some LRC verification. It has potential all right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 I know we are crossing ours fingers as we will most likely go chasing again if the set-up this weekend looks promising. And I hear you on the tired part, I just woke up. We didn't get home until 6 AM and of course as soon as we got home, the county I live in was under a SVR Warning about 30 mins later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrentO Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 Nice 988mb low over IA, we'll see if it holds in future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 4, 2011 Author Share Posted April 4, 2011 Nice 988mb low over IA, we'll see if it holds in future runs. The GFS has been consistent in bringing a strong sfc low around that area and occluding it in the afternoon, It actually looks better around 18z. Impressive wind fields. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 Can't get excited about this one given past trends (but that's not the reason for this post). Latest runs of GFS and Euro already showing a dearth of moisture in the 850-925mb levels, which almost always means moisture at the sfc will mix out and be overdone on the models. While the setup seems fantastic for severe weather (from supercells to a nice squall line), and a few isolated tornadoes, we will probably not end up seeing a significant tornado outbreak out of this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 Given this system's wind fields and trajectory of motion as modeled right now (as well as the ongoing drought) it would be a good candidate to enable the dryline to maintain some of its characteristics farther east than normal. The 12z GFS hints at this with a nice dry punch into Missouri/Arkansas on Sunday Still way too early to get excited but a system to monitor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 Given this system's wind fields and trajectory of motion as modeled right now (as well as the ongoing drought) it would be a good candidate to enable the dryline to maintain some of its characteristics farther east than normal. The 12z GFS hints at this with a nice dry punch into Missouri/Arkansas on Sunday Still way too early to get excited but a system to monitor. Wow, that's one hell of a dryline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 Wow, that's one hell of a dryline. Not sure if you saw my thread from a few months ago: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/7463-significantmajor-ilinmi-tornado-outbreaks/page__pid__236721#entry236721 Be sure to click the first link in the first post. That is probably one of the more extreme examples this far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 4, 2011 Author Share Posted April 4, 2011 Not sure if you saw my thread from a few months ago: http://www.americanw...721#entry236721 Be sure to click the first link in the first post. That is probably one of the more extreme examples this far east. not gunna open it and guess its 4/19/96 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 not gunna open it and guess its 4/19/96 lol Well I mentioned that one in my thread but I was talking about 4/3/56. Anyway, regarding this system, the 18z GFS has 500 mb winds pushing 120 kts. Unless there are some big changes, I don't see how this isn't a significant severe weather event one way or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 5, 2011 Author Share Posted April 5, 2011 Well I mentioned that one in my thread but I was talking about 4/3/56. Anyway, regarding this system, the 18z GFS has 500 mb winds pushing 120 kts. Unless there are some big changes, I don't see how this isn't a significant severe weather event one way or another. Ya I'm liking the potential for something good on saturday as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 Not sure if you saw my thread from a few months ago: http://www.americanw...721#entry236721 Be sure to click the first link in the first post. That is probably one of the more extreme examples this far east. Yeah that's very impressive. Very unusual this far east. That would have been a fun system to forecast and track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 I would almost bet on a timing being 12-18 hours than currently forecast - it has been the trend for months with nearly every system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 The more I look at this set-up, the more I like it. This looks to be one of those storm system that lashes areas like Illinois/Missouri with several rounds of severe thunderstorms over a multi-day period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 The more I look at this set-up, the more I like it. This looks to be one of those storm system that lashes areas like Illinois/Missouri with several rounds of severe thunderstorms over a multi-day period. Yeah I foresee hydro issues along that warm front by the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 Yeah I foresee hydro issues along that warm front by the weekend. I'm hoping it plays out well - me and my 2 met student buddies who I chase with already have plans to chase both Saturday and Sunday if the set-up continues to look favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 5, 2011 Author Share Posted April 5, 2011 I'm hoping it plays out well - me and my 2 met student buddies who I chase with already have plans to chase both Saturday and Sunday if the set-up continues to look favorable. As do we. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 As do we. I was pleased with yesterday for a non tornado day - lots of amazing pictures. It was worth the 6-1/2 hour drive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 5, 2011 Author Share Posted April 5, 2011 I was pleased with yesterday for a non tornado day - lots of amazing pictures. It was worth the 6-1/2 hour drive. I wouldn't of went if it was that far lol would of stayed home at go but 3hrs was nice. The low level turning really killed the tornado theat. Put backed sfc winds ahead of those storms and it would of been different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 I'm just not sure about the Plains portion of this setup (Saturday). It's already showing signs on the models of being more positively-tilted and de-amplifying as it finally kicks out into the Rockies. You know, just like every single damn trough for the past half-year. I'm no synoptician, so I won't pretend to understand all the teleconnections and other factors involved, but something about the ongoing pattern simply won't allow big troughs to dig into the Desert SW and progress eastward without a huge ride simultaneously poking up into the Pac NW and ruining everything (first causing stalling/retrogression of the energy, then eventually kicking out as a positive-tilt, shearing-out mess). Heck, the 12z ECMWF stalls the ULL for so long in CA that it almost suggests Sunday would be the Plains day, with Monday a threat over parts of the Midwest. Another system is right on its heels and could be something to watch for early-mid next week, although I'm not sure the short wavelengths will allow for good moisture return. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 SPC issued a risk area: In the OMG department, the 6z GFS has near bombogenesis as it takes the surface low from 984 mb to 973 mb over Lake Superior between 144-156 hours. I don't recall seeing a surface low that deep in the second week of April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 Obviously it is a ways off but the GFS is forecasting some pretty stellar severe weather parameters for Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 As do we. Went chasing on Sunday over towards where Chi Storm was and we got some good pics. Definitely plan on chasing this weekend if this holds. Only concern is cloud cover if it does pan out. Let's hope we have a relatively cloud-free situation like Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 I'm just not sure about the Plains portion of this setup (Saturday). It's already showing signs on the models of being more positively-tilted and de-amplifying as it finally kicks out into the Rockies. You know, just like every single damn trough for the past half-year. I'm no synoptician, so I won't pretend to understand all the teleconnections and other factors involved, but something about the ongoing pattern simply won't allow big troughs to dig into the Desert SW and progress eastward without a huge ride simultaneously poking up into the Pac NW and ruining everything (first causing stalling/retrogression of the energy, then eventually kicking out as a positive-tilt, shearing-out mess). Heck, the 12z ECMWF stalls the ULL for so long in CA that it almost suggests Sunday would be the Plains day, with Monday a threat over parts of the Midwest. Another system is right on its heels and could be something to watch for early-mid next week, although I'm not sure the short wavelengths will allow for good moisture return. As far as the teleconnections are concerned, the oncoming strongly positive NAO suggests the development of a SE ridge, which is indeed picked up on by the models, though to varying degrees. This is great for prolonged moisture return, and generally prevents full intrusions by fronts into the Gulf. The upstream pattern is a bit more difficult, but I don't see anything that would suggest to me that the ridge should develop into a block. Rather, it looks like the upstream pattern will break it down before it has the chance to become stable (more like a "roll-over" ridge, which is generally unstable, has a weak beta-effect, and breaks down quickly), thus keeping the pattern progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 5, 2011 Author Share Posted April 5, 2011 Went chasing on Sunday over towards where Chi Storm was and we got some good pics. Definitely plan on chasing this weekend if this holds. Only concern is cloud cover if it does pan out. Let's hope we have a relatively cloud-free situation like Sunday. Didn't know you chased, we'll have to meet up sometime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 5, 2011 Author Share Posted April 5, 2011 12z GFS has a 988mb sfc low on the NE/SD border on saturday evening with alot of juice in eastern IA/northern IL (mid-upper 60 dew points and 2000-3000 j/kg) I would assume the GFS is also has sfc temps underdone as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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