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NNE Spring Thread

Allenson

By Allenson,
in New England

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted

Beatiful day. At most some periods of SCT Cu, but mostly sunny was the rule. High temp was 76.1F...75.1F currently.

Looks hot over the next week. For C/S NH probably 77-83F for the next 2 days and then we start cranking up the heat a little more each day. If the Euro is right even I'll be near 90F on Tue/Wed with MHT-ASH flirting with 95F.

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adk

adk

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This is when upslope flow sucks... everyone else speaking of beautiful blue skies and I'm only getting very brief holes of blue in the cloud cover.

Morrisville-Stowe Airport ASOS had some CLR reports around 2-3am but has otherwise been cloudy. Straight OVC the past 5 hours.

Notice the upslope flow leaving clouds down the entire western slopes of the Greens with a sharp drying/clearing line just east of the spine. Also thick clouds banking up against the northern slopes of the Adirondacks and entire north/western slope of terrain in NH and ME. These should eventually burn off, I hope.

These clouds are a good indicator of where the upward vertical motion takes place on a NW flow and where downward motion takes place.

But I will say you guys down SE of here deserve it... you've had a much rougher go of it with the east wind during that cut-off. It wasn't pretty up here but we're far enough from the ocean that we were in the 50s most of the time you guys were in the 40s with "drizzle, heavy at times."

That's a great image scott. Well captured.

I'd really like to explore some of those "northern ADK slopes" next winter. The high peaks and esp. whiteface don't get more than 75% of the snow these nor. slopes get. Interested in exploring?

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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That's a great image scott. Well captured.

I'd really like to explore some of those "northern ADK slopes" next winter. The high peaks and esp. whiteface don't get more than 75% of the snow these nor. slopes get. Interested in exploring?

Yeah I'd certainly be down for exploring... I haven't skied in the 'Dacks in years. My only problem is the winter is obviously the busy season at Stowe and I don't get much time away from work. I'm generally expected to be there "on hill" 6 days a week with the rest of the marketing team during the bulk of the winter season. Of course, I love what I do...ski, measure snow, observe temps/wind, forecast, and take pictures/videos... but I still have very few days "off."

Speaking of snow... we have lost continuous snow cover around the measuring stake and are now down to very small patches. From 9 feet of depth down to a trace.

DAILY HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DATA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
807 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2011

STATION            PRECIP   TEMPERATURE   PRESENT         SNOW
                  24 HRS   MAX MIN CUR   WEATHER     NEW TOTAL SWE
...VERMONT...
MOUNT MANSFIELD     0.00    56  40  55                      T

And there are still visible patches on the ski trails but they are few and far between. The half-pipe still has a ton of snow, though... the walls are still 10 feet deep.

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nzucker

nzucker

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Yeah I'd certainly be down for exploring... I haven't skied in the 'Dacks in years. My only problem is the winter is obviously the busy season at Stowe and I don't get much time away from work. I'm generally expected to be there "on hill" 6 days a week with the rest of the marketing team during the bulk of the winter season. Of course, I love what I do...ski, measure snow, observe temps/wind, forecast, and take pictures/videos... but I still have very few days "off."

Speaking of snow... we have lost continuous snow cover around the measuring stake and are now down to very small patches. From 9 feet of depth down to a trace.

And there are still visible patches on the ski trails but they are few and far between. The half-pipe still has a ton of snow, though... the walls are still 10 feet deep.

Despite the big snowpack, it went pretty quickly on Mansfield. I thought the snow might last into June this year but we're not having a particularly cold spring.

On the other hand, the mountains you skied in winter this UT probably still have hundreds of inches left...many of the western stations in the Rockies are reporting record snowpack.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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Despite the big snowpack, it went pretty quickly on Mansfield. I thought the snow might last into June this year but we're not having a particularly cold spring.

On the other hand, the mountains you skied in winter this UT probably still have hundreds of inches left...many of the western stations in the Rockies are reporting record snowpack.

Yeah it always goes pretty quickly... thus the incredibly steep drop in the average snowpack graph. I thought we had a chance at June this year but no dice. It's a far cry from the 48" on June 1st, 1997... which featured several May snowfalls.

And I mean, Zucker we really can't compare eastern mountains to western mountains. In terms of vertical drop, a lot of eastern ski areas actually have larger vertical relief than resorts out west... but at a much, much lower elevation. Mansfield actually holds its own in terms of snowfall with some of the lower elevation resorts out there that are in the 4,000-7,000ft range. But places like Utah where I went, the snow depths at 9,000-10,000ft are still in the 150-175" range at Alta and Snowbird. The difference is it is still snowing out there. Snowbird got 5" 48 hours ago, and a 30" storm last week. Its not hard to maintain snowpack when you are getting weekly 2-footers. Snowbird is also at 760" on the season. If Mansfield got 760" instead of 350", there'd still be a lot of snow up there.

I know you like to compare to out west, but its really apples and oranges. Add in very low dew points and its no wonder snow melts faster at 55F/50F instead of 55F/15F.

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nzucker

nzucker

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Yeah it always goes pretty quickly... thus the incredibly steep drop in the average snowpack graph. I thought we had a chance at June this year but no dice. It's a far cry from the 48" on June 1st, 1997... which featured several May snowfalls.

And I mean, Zucker we really can't compare eastern mountains to western mountains. In terms of vertical drop, a lot of eastern ski areas actually have larger vertical relief than resorts out west... but at a much, much lower elevation. Mansfield actually holds its own in terms of snowfall with some of the lower elevation resorts out there that are in the 4,000-7,000ft range. But places like Utah where I went, the snow depths at 9,000-10,000ft are still in the 150-175" range at Alta and Snowbird. The difference is it is still snowing out there. Snowbird got 5" 48 hours ago, and a 30" storm last week. Its not hard to maintain snowpack when you are getting weekly 2-footers. Snowbird is also at 760" on the season. If Mansfield got 760" instead of 350", there'd still be a lot of snow up there.

I know you like to compare to out west, but its really apples and oranges. Add in very low dew points and its no wonder snow melts faster at 55F/50F instead of 55F/15F.

Oh I obviously know it's a whole 'nother ballgame out there, I've lived there and hiked a lot of those high peaks. The Northern Greens do incredibly well with locations such as Jay Peak getting close to 400"/yr, which puts them into the league of some of the lower-snowfall resorts such as those in Colorado that don't enjoy the benefits of latitude like Montana nor the benefits of lake enhancement like the Utah areas. It's mind-boggling to think how much snow Vermont would get if it had 10,000' peaks given the annual precipitation near 50" in our area. 760" is definitely a lot of Snowbird, though...that's a very good season for Utah. Amazing to think the highest areas of the Mirror Lake Recreation Area where I camped only average 40-45" precip/year, but it all comes in the winter as snow so they get hundreds of inches.

The West has had a cold spring; that's what I'd say the biggest factor in terms of keeping the snowpack intact is besides the really high elevation. They've been on the right side of a lot of Colorado/Plains lows with a block over AK, keeping temperatures below average with lots of moisture from cold fronts. I'm sure where I was last year in Glacier is getting creamed right now with heavy snow...they tend to do well in the spring in Montana when you get lows that cut-off over the Northern Plains like this...classic signature for a late-season snowfall in MT with the ridge over AK and low cutting towards the Canadian Prairies...these can produce some good June blizzards in places like Calgary, too:

And yes, the low dewpoints help. I was in Nevada over the summer as well, and there was still a bunch of snow above 10,000' in mid-August. It gets pretty warm up there with the strong sun angle and 30C 850s, but the humidity is really low so the snowpack doesn't receive much of the air's warmth. You get a lot of days where it's like 65/40 or something instead of 65/60, and that makes a difference compared to the Northeast. However, I still expected Mansfield would last until June with the 100" they had in early April. I bet some of the north-facing slopes of the Adironadack High Peaks still have snow, however.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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And yes, the low dewpoints help. I was in Nevada over the summer as well, and there was still a bunch of snow above 10,000' in mid-August. It gets pretty warm up there with the strong sun angle and 30C 850s, but the humidity is really low so the snowpack doesn't receive much of the air's warmth. You get a lot of days where it's like 65/40 or something instead of 65/60, and that makes a difference compared to the Northeast. However, I still expected Mansfield would last until June with the 100" they had in early April. I bet some of the north-facing slopes of the Adironadack High Peaks still have snow, however.

Maybe, or maybe not. As you'll hear the poster "adk" say, the High Peaks region does not get as much snow as you'd think. The northern Greens, especially Bolton, Mansfield, and Jay will pick up 100+ more inches than places like Whiteface, Marcy, etc. I know it sounds weird but the High Peaks don't get the upslope snowfall that the northern Adirondack slope gets and that moisture is eaten up by a bunch of smallish 2,500-3,000ft terrain... while the 4,000-5,000ft terrain is left relatively dry. Plus, northern high elevation slopes in the Adirondacks are generally very wind-scoured (think of where the majority of strong winds come in the winter... out of NW) and the snow loading usually occurs on slopes facing Burlington and Vermont, which don't hold snow as well due to a southeast exposure.

I'm sure there's still some drifts up in the High Peaks, but Whiteface only got 247" last winter and that mountain is over 500ft higher than anything in VT... still above average for them (I think like 180-220" is average) but a far cry from the powder keg of the Northern Greens (as opposed to the 325-400" that fell at Vermont resorts like Jay, Smuggs, Stowe, and Bolton). I sort of look at the Adirondacks and Whites as having similar snowfall to each other, with the Greens getting a general 25-50% more depending on the season.

I'm going to hike up Mansfield to the stake in a little bit to find out whats left up there.

I already miss it.

IMG_3228_edited-1.jpg

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>009-016>018-271415-

NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CLINTON-

SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN CLINTON-

WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE-GRAND ISLE-

WESTERN FRANKLIN-ORLEANS-ESSEX-WESTERN CHITTENDEN-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-

WASHINGTON-WESTERN ADDISON-EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-

EASTERN ADDISON-

1012 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH

FRIDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK...CENTRAL

VERMONT...NORTHEAST VERMONT AND NORTHWEST VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SAINT

LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACK MOUNTAINS OF NEW YORK BY

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOVE INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN

VERMONT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS

GREATER THAN 70 MPH...LARGE HAIL...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...AND VERY

HEAVY RAINFALL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO COULD BE POSSIBLE IN A FEW OF

THE STRONGER STORMS.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

AS ANY THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE NORTHERN AND

CENTRAL SECTIONS OF VERMONT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE 1

TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. THIS WOULD

LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP DURING THE

DAY FRIDAY. THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WILL SHIFT

SOUTHWARD TO INCLUDE CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT ON FRIDAY.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS POSSIBLE...AND

ANY PERSISTENT AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN MAY CREATE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

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hvysnow79

hvysnow79

Posted
Posted

Tornado Watch just posted:

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

Tornado Watch for portions of

northeast New York

northern and central Vermont

Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 1230 PM until

800 PM EDT.

Tornadoes... hail to 2 inches in diameter... thunderstorm wind

gusts to 70 mph... and dangerous lightning are possible in these

areas.

The Tornado Watch area is approximately along and 60 statute

miles east and west of a line from 25 miles west northwest of

Newport Vermont to 50 miles south southwest of Burlington

Vermont. For a complete depiction of the watch see the

associated watch outline update (wous64 kwns wou0).

Remember... a Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for

tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch

area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for

threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements

and possible warnings.

Other watch information... continue... ww 379...

Discussion... a supercell has already evolved early this afternoon

over nern NY within an kinematic environment characterized by 50-55

kt of effective bulk shear and 0-1 km srh approaching 200 m2/s2 /per

Burlington vwp/. Inflow air mass should continue to

warm/destabilize over the next several hours... supporting MLCAPE

values of 1000-2000 j/kg. This combination of instability and

vertical shear is resulting in an environment quite favorable for

supercells capable of large hail... damaging winds and tornadoes.

Aviation... tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail

surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface

wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to

500. Mean storm motion vector 24035.

... Mead

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Allenson

Allenson

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Nothing here yet--just kinda hot and rather hazy.

I'm very sick of being shackled at work right now and can't wait to get home to batten down the hatches if need be. Our round of severe stuff last summer that leveled a third of our woods put a real crimp in my enjoyment of this kind of set-up....

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