NNE Spring Thread

[powderfreak]

Roger Hill brought up the snow in his broadcast this morning; the first rough numbers he threw out were 3 to 6 inches and a snow level of 1,500’. He also talked about the lake going higher with this next surge of moisture, not so much due to what falls around here, but more on the Adirondack side of the basin. I heard him say estimates were somewhere up around 103 feet.

Hmmm... I haven't looked at this at all, but that sounds interesting. 12z NAM would definitely bring some light snows to the higher elevations. One more "powder" run would be sweet, even if it is only 2-3" above 2,500ft.

[powderfreak]

We'll see if it outlasts the Central Maine Glacier, aka the Augusta snowdump. In 2008 it lasted thru August 25, but only to about July 20, 2009, and barely into June last year. Late spring wx is also a key, but the pile itself looks a bit smaller than the 2009 version, so I'm figuring about July 10 for the final melt-off.

Three beauties in a row! Rare indeed for this time of year, and a fine day for stretching the legs as they regain strength following the surgery that took the pressure from my spinal cord. The unmaintained road past the house is drying out, but it caught someone but good over the weekend. Lots of grading-by-differential before he got free, and the ruts are only 3-4" deep due to the spring-hole mud oozing back up. The upcoming rainy/cool spell should put off the blackflies until midmonth.

I've heard you mention this pile in Augusta the past few years and I'm curious as to how long that lasts, too. I can't believe a pile of snow lasted at a low elevation site until August 25th!! That must've out-lasted Tuckerman's Ravine that year, too. My guess for the pile on Mansfield would be end of June, maybe early July.

The ski area does have some massive piles left though from the terrain parks and half-pipe... and they pile it all together so we can throw a "Last Trick" park event on Memorial Day weekend. The groomer were head back on the Saturday of Memorial Day weekend and put together a short run of rails, jumps, and terrain features. Always a lot of fun to go play in the snow with full greenery all around you. There are parts of the terrain parks where the snow depth reaches over 30 feet at the apex of the jumps, and its not too hard to get that amount of snow to last till the end of May.

[dendrite]

Turned out to be a nice day with temps around 70F in C NH. The rain has stayed well to the by the frontal boundary near the Canadian border. We've had broken mid and upper level stratus during the day allowing for a few sunny periods. 68.3 now off of a low of 49.9.

[J.Spin]

For the snow starting tonight, Roger Hill focused on the Northern Greens (I-89 north) mentioned that there was an upslope component, and his thoughts on totals were 4 to 8 inches with snow levels in the 1,500’ to 2,000’ range.

[MaineJayhawk]

No snow coming to my 'hood. 48F with heavy drizzle ... the kind of day that makes SNE peeps head to the Tobin with cement blocks chained to their legs.

[Allenson]

No snow coming to my 'hood. 48F with heavy drizzle ... the kind of day that makes SNE peeps head to the Tobin with cement blocks chained to their legs.

LOL, Mafia shoes.

48 here too with steady light rain. Not much so far--quarter inch or so but man has the grass greened right up with a little sun followed by rain. I swear it's a few shades brighter this morn than it was yesterday.

[powderfreak]

Well the 12z NAM got a little more interesting for the northern Greens...over into the northern Adirondacks. NW flow and synoptic moisture left in place... could be a nice little late-season snow event for the ski areas.

[powderfreak]

A friend posted this on skivt-l and its from today's Burlington Free Press... from the Young Writers Project: Life in Vermont.

"Life in Vermont"

by Odreille Kamikaze (is that a great name or what?!)

Champlain Elementary School, Grade 5

Vermont is so snowy

In winter

And spring

Hot summer

Then snow again

[klw]

Holy Clown Map Batman!

[powderfreak]

12z NAM for the state capital Montpelier (KMPV)... almost a 1/2" of QPF falling in a snow-supporting atmosphere on May 5-6th. Pretty fun model run, lol.

[powderfreak]

Getting close to frozen or freezing precipitation at the 4,000ft summits now. Intellicast radar showing some blue and pink pixels over the high elevations of the Adirondacks and that should come eastward this afternoon and evening.

Mansfield is currently 34F at 3,900ft.

Bolton at 2,100ft along the Green Mountain Spine just north of the Winooski Valley is now down to 38F (they were 55F 12-hours ago at 2am, so temps are definitely dropping steadily).

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KVTBOLTO2

I've been steadily falling at 800ft, too. It was low 50s when I woke up, and now we are down to 44F with a steady, slow drop of about a degree per hour.

I love the plethora of weather stations in this area at various elevations, so you can get a good, rough vertical profile up to 4,000ft:

3,900ft...34F

2,100ft...38F

1,600ft...41F

800ft...44F

300ft...46F

[dryslot]

All these heavy showers are screwing with my golf game.............

[nzucker]

Some ridiculous returns (35dbz) over the N Greens right now? Are Jay and Mansfield getting crushed?

[dendrite]

50.8F with some -RA. 0.18" through the tipper so far.

Maybe some of us in the foothills on NH can eek out a few parachute flakes mixed in after the front goes through. There's some big differences between the MET and MAV for highs tomorrow at LCI. The MET is a chilly 44F max while the GFS is 53F. I haven't looked at a lot of data, but my hunch is that it verifies closer to the MAV since we'll be getting in on some W-NW flow and any precip should be mostly showery E of the higher terrain. The NW upslope regions will obviously be a lot cooler and wetter (snowier).

Good luck to you guys up in VT on the snow.

[J.Spin]

Back down at the house around midday there was still a white coating on parts of the lawn, and even now a bit of that is hanging around. I’ll put together a few pictures when I get the chance.

I finally got a chance to finish up my reports and pictures from the last few outings, so I added a few images below. Powderfreak has been doing a nice job of reporting on the local snow from his outings, but I’ll just touch on the spots I visited in the past week or so. More pictures/info can be obtained through the links.

On the 22^nd at Sugarbush, it was one of the beautiful those warm spring days, and the snowpack there was in nice shape. The first shot below is looking south from Lincoln Peak toward the Killington/Pico area, and the snowpack in the intervening mountains is visible. The second shot shows the higher elevations at Sugarbush behind the Clay Brook complex, and then the third shot has some of the lower elevation terrain near the valley house:

I already made a quick post from the 23^rd up at Bolton, but that’s when it was back to winter with some fresh powder on the slopes. I added a shot below of putting in some tracks on Lower Turnpike:

It was a busy weekend so didn’t go to the free Sugarbush day, but I did pop up to Bolton on Sunday (May 1^st) for a sunset run. There was still continuous top to bottom coverage on Sunday; there are probably a couple of small breaks in the coverage now, although those would be covered up with whatever new snow comes in. I have a couple of snowpack shots in the report, but my favorite picture was westward from the summit as the sun was getting low, so I added that here:

It looks like there will be a temporary hiatus on the spring conditions while some new snow moves in; it’s already below freezing on Mansfield so the precipitation is something frozen. I’ll report on accumulations etc. if I head up to check out the powder, although I suspect Powderfreak will be visiting the high country too if enough snow falls.

[ski MRG]

Nice Spin.

[powderfreak]

Some ridiculous returns (35dbz) over the N Greens right now? Are Jay and Mansfield getting crushed?

I can confirm as of 5pm today that the snow level was down to near 2,500ft with visible accumulations from 3,000ft and up. Temp was 38F at 5pm at 1,600ft and the rain drops did have some frozen mixed in. It was obvious all snow from 2,500ft and up (that wispy, wind-driven sheets of snow look) based on visibility changes, and there was fresh white showing up on some of the melted out portions of high elevation trails from 3,000ft and up. Headwalls of Starr, National, Liftline, and Goat all had fresh white on them as of 2 hours ago.

Mansfield point 'n click forecast for 3,000ft... showing 3-8" of accumulation possible.

Tonight: Snow showers. Low around 29. North wind between 9 and 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Thursday: Snow showers. High near 33. Breezy, with a north wind between 14 and 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Thursday Night: Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 22. West wind between 8 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

[powderfreak]

It looks like there will be a temporary hiatus on the spring conditions while some new snow moves in; it’s already below freezing on Mansfield so the precipitation is something frozen. I’ll report on accumulations etc. if I head up to check out the powder, although I suspect Powderfreak will be visiting the high country too if enough snow falls.

Nice shots, Jay! Especially the sunset one... I do miss the Bolton sunsets over the Adirondacks.

And yes, I plan on visiting the high country tomorrow afternoon and again on Friday morning. Camera will be in hand. And yep, see my previous post, but as of 5pm it was snowing on the upper half of the mountain and the snow level was marching towards the base area. If we have the moisture around, accumulations tonight even down to 1,500ft wouldn't surprise me as it was 38F there as of 5pm in daylight. Once the sun goes down here and upslope keeps going, I bet the base area at 1,500ft hits the low 30s during the early morning hours.

Its also one of those situations where temperatures and snow levels will be colder/lower in the immediate vicinity of the Green Mountain Spine due to upslope/forced ascent cooling the local atmosphere more so than surrounding areas. I've seen that plenty of times where the accumulating snow level is lower in the immediate vicinity of Mount Mansfield due to the strong upslope forcing causing heavier, steadier precipitation which in turn continues to cool the local atmosphere. Its like a feedback loop that results in more snow at lower elevations than even across the valley in the Worcester Range. I love when there are accumulations down to 1,500ft on Mansfield, but then the Worcester Range on the east side of town doesn't have accums until 2,500ft.

[CoastalWx]

Nice shots, Jay! Especially the sunset one... I do miss the Bolton sunsets over the Adirondacks.

And yes, I plan on visiting the high country tomorrow afternoon and again on Friday morning. Camera will be in hand. And yep, see my previous post, but as of 5pm it was snowing on the upper half of the mountain and the snow level was marching towards the base area. If we have the moisture around, accumulations tonight even down to 1,500ft wouldn't surprise me as it was 38F there as of 5pm in daylight. Once the sun goes down here and upslope keeps going, I bet the base area at 1,500ft hits the low 30s during the early morning hours.

Its also one of those situations where temperatures and snow levels will be colder/lower in the immediate vicinity of the Green Mountain Spine due to upslope/forced ascent cooling the local atmosphere more so than surrounding areas. I've seen that plenty of times where the accumulating snow level is lower in the immediate vicinity of Mount Mansfield due to the strong upslope forcing causing heavier, steadier precipitation which in turn continues to cool the local atmosphere. Its like a feedback loop that results in more snow at lower elevations than even across the valley in the Worcester Range. I love when there are accumulations down to 1,500ft on Mansfield, but then the Worcester Range on the east side of town doesn't have accums until 2,500ft.

Looks like the nrn and nw facing slopes could do well. Pretty classic looking upslope and a commahead/trowal features seems evident as well.

[powderfreak]

Looks like the nrn and nw facing slopes could do well. Pretty classic looking upslope and a commahead/trowal features seems evident as well.

Yeah, it'll be real interesting to see what the usual suspects like Jay Peak, Mt Mansfield, and Bolton Mtn pick up out of this. I'm with the NWS in that this will have little to no effect on the general population except a few wet flakes, but for those with outdoor recreation in mind, it could be interesting. Plus, it is May now so any accumulating snow is worth mentioning.

Here's today's co-op report from the 4pm shift change... this goes with what I was seeing, with whitening occurring from 3,000ft and up at 5pm. It will be snow at the co-op from earlier today until sometime on Friday afternoon when temperatures moderate.

536 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2011
STATION            PRECIP   TEMPERATURE   PRESENT         SNOW
                  24 HRS   MAX MIN CUR   WEATHER     NEW TOTAL SWE
MOUNT MANSFIELD     1.36    50  30  30                0.3  47    

[Allenson]

No snow here--but that clown maps gets us in on the action here a little bit, lol.

0.57" of rain yesterday/overnight. Cool & raw, 39F this morning.

Gonna try to burn some brush today....

[powderfreak]

Unfortunately my "out-the-window" observations show the snow level stayed high last night at 2,500ft and above. Fresh white is noted starting in that 2,500-3,000ft elevation band and higher.

It is raining here in town with good visibility to the lower slopes of Mansfield and Spruce Peak, however visibility turns "murky white" around that 2,500ft elevation and ski trails are showing proof of snow above that... though its not that "stark white" look of significant snow. It looks more like a wet coating from a distance.

40F -RN here in town.

28F summit

[J.Spin]

Nice Spin.

Nice shots, Jay! Especially the sunset one... I do miss the Bolton sunsets over the Adirondacks.

Glad you enjoyed the shots guys; I’m happy to help keep the snow images rolling. There’s still well over a month before spring is over, so there’s obviously a lot of skiing still to be done.

It was ~41 F at the house this morning at 495', so I suspected that the snow level was still a bit high for new powder in the easily accessible elevations, but I checked in at Bolton on the way in to Burlington this morning to get a handle on where things were at in terms of base and new snow. I could tell that it wasn’t yet a huge hit below 2,500’ yet because the cars coming down the road didn’t have snow on them, but the precipitation certainly looked like snow up high. Here’s the vertical temperature profile I observed on the Bolton Valley access road around 7:00 A.M. with comments on the precipitation/accumulation; hopefully it will be useful for other mountain recreationalists:

340’: 41F (light rain)

950’: 40F (light/moderate rain)

1,100’: 39F (moderate rain)

1,500’: 38F (moderate rain/snow)

1,800’: 37F (moderate snow)

2,000’: 36F (moderate snow)

2,100’: 35F (moderate snow, accumulating)

As you can see from the above list, snow wasn’t accumulating until I reached the village at 2,100’, but it seemed to be accumulating on most surfaces other than the pavement, and there was probably ¼ inch down when I was there. Skier’s left of Beech Seal showed a couple of breaks in coverage, as I suspected it would based on my Sunday observations, but it was still pretty close to continuous.

Even back down in the valley, there were some bouts of moderate precipitation, so hopefully that continues to hit the mountains. Roger Hill was thinking that the snow level would rise a bit during the day today, so that may have to be factored in as well.

[borderwx]

cold to the bone, as my dad would say, waiting for Mr. Tom this morning

37F at 1080' in and out of mist, light rain, moderate rain showers.

looks like ski season continues - gotta do something since we can't even till the garden yet

[powderfreak]

J.Spin... thanks for the observations. They match what I just found up at Stowe/Mansfield.

In the Midway parking lot at the ski resort (upper lot is 1,600ft) it was snowing steadily... by 1,500ft at the lower exit of the Mansfield parking lot it was a mix of rain and snow. At 1,400ft it was all rain.

Visible accumulations were lower down than what they looked from town. I'd say there was accums down to 2,000ft, which matches what you found at Bolton.

Anyway, so nice to stand outside in the parking lot getting blasted by a cold NW wind and falling snowflakes. It never gets old watching sheets of snow blow down off the mountain... swirling and dancing around. May 5th and watching it snow at 1,600ft... does not get any better. I'm going to wait though to skin/hike up though... maybe later this afternoon.

[powderfreak]

Most of the day precipitation has been a mix of rain and snow (depends on precip intensity), though this afternoon I have noticed the snow level seems to have risen (on average) 100-200 feet up into the 1700-1800ft range. Its interesting because the snowflakes down at 1,500-1,600ft seem to come in bursts... its like its either all or nothing. You'll see an area of snow coming down off the mountain and you can watch it fall against the backdrop of the terrain... most of the time it peters out and changes to light raindrops, but then other times the burst of snow will blast through the base area as 100% flakes.

Very, very interesting sitting there on the rain/snow line watching things evolve and monitoring visibility changes to see where the true "all snow" line is and where the heavier pockets of snow are around the mountain. Its interesting because I feel like all day the "Chin" (northern side of the 2 mile long ridgeline) area of Mansfield has been under more persistent snowfall than the "Nose" side (south end of ridgeline) and when the clouds cleared briefly, the trees were definitely more white on the northern end of the mountain than on the southern end.

What an awful day in the low elevations though... its been 39-43F all day long at 800ft with steady light rain.

I'm heading up to do some recon and will report back later. Time to go play in the May snowfall. Too bad we aren't like 1-2C colder, though... then this would be real interesting.

[powderfreak]

Its a winter wonderland in the higher elevations...

4" of thick frosting on top of the dirty, older snow surface... this is around 3,000ft. There was closer to 6" at 3,600ft.

Should've put something for reference in this photo, but you'll just have to trust me in my 4" measurement here.

Fresh snow turns in May!

More pics to follow later... but winter continues on the local town hill.

[powderfreak]

Moist NW flow continues to crush the northern Greens with precipitation... in the form of snow above 1,600ft and rain below that. It has not stopped precipitating here in Stowe all day today. In January this would've been an epic upslope event for all elevations.

In the last 24 hours, Mount Mansfield at 3,900ft has picked up an inch of liquid, with a high temperature of 30F. This is the beauty of upslope... absolutely no weather model, no matter how good the resolution is, will ever grasp just how much liquid upslope can squeeze out over the mountains. There was no model that was even close to 24-hour totals of 1" QPF.

And BTW... that 2" of "NEW" is about 33% of reality based on what I saw. Remember, it was snowing yesterday at the 5pm co-op reading, so all this liquid equivalent that fell should've been in the form of snow. The 6" I measured at 3,600ft makes a lot more sense given 1" QPF at temps below freezing... and even that measurement leads to a 5:1 ratio.

DAILY HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DATA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
558 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2011

STATION            PRECIP   TEMPERATURE   PRESENT     	SNOW
              	24 HRS   MAX MIN CUR   WEATHER 	NEW TOTAL SWE
...VERMONT...
MOUNT MANSFIELD 	1.01    30  27  28                2.0  50

NW flow continues to light up the Mansfield region.

Lastly, here's a picture from down in the valley at only 800ft of elevation... you could see the sheets of snow moving overhead and it is snowing in the hills across the valley. If you look close enough at the sky in this picture, you can see the wisps of snow moving by overhead.

[wxeyeNH]

Was in Plymouth NH around sunset and it seemed to be snowing on the hills to the north of town above around 1750-2000 feet. Just rain showers at town level.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Powderfreak continues to operate in mid-winter mode well into May

la Epic lives