12/3-12/6 MW/GL snow event?

[BowMeHunter]

Looking good for your first measurable snowfall. Have to start somewhere I guess.

Right on brother I hope we all get enough to maybe cover the grass. Really kinda digging there is no cutters or big storms anyways as I want to get out ice fishing and the long range is looking pretty good for an extended period of ice making. Last yr on December 12th me and my dad fished Monona Bay in Madison - only 3 to 4" of ice.. If the extended holds we should be able to get out again on his birthday and probably with more ice IF the forecast holds.

[Hoosier]

I'm hedging my bets, in that these systems seem to typically slide north eventually. But of course that's not a lock always...but I'd feel a little more comfortable if I were sitting on the northern fringes right now. We'll see.

Yeah, I'm just basically averaging the solutions right now.

[michsnowfreak]

Every winter is a Minneapolis/Fargo winter.

For the cold lovers, absolutely.

But for snow, Detroit, like most other places in the region, has actually killed Minneapolis in recent winters in terms of snowfall. So Minneapolis is more than due for being the jackpot.

...................MSP....DTW

2002-03....35.0".....60.9"

2003-04....66.3".....24.1"

2004-05....25.5".....63.8"

2005-06....44.4".....36.3"

2006-07....35.5".....30.3"

2007-08....44.6".....71.7"

2008-09....45.0".....64.8"

2009-10....40.7".....46.1"

Detroit has beat Minneapolis in 5 of the past 8 years, several times by large margins. Detroit had about 26" more in 2002-03, over 38" more in 2004-05, about 27" more in 2007-08, and about 20" more in 2008-09.

The 8-year accumulated total shows DTW has had 61 more inches of snow than Minneapolis, a feat that goes strongly against climo.

[Thundersnow12]

There goes the always bullish Milwaukee office throwing out amounts already, really wish they wouldn't do that.

[cyclone77]

NAM starting to get in the game now. The 18z has snow streaking from southern Minnesota to northeast Iowa.

[Thundersnow12]

LOT

MORE INTERESTING FEATURE SHAPING UP FOR SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN

SURPRISINGLY CONSISTENT PAST SEVERAL RUNS IN BRINGING A MORE

SIGNIFICANT NORTHWEST FLOW FEATURE THROUGH THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY.

THE EUROPEAN HAS BEEN MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT A

MODEST AMOUNT OF 850 MB WARM ADVECTION HAS BEEN PROGGED TO PUNCH

ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH LOW

ENOUGH CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS TO SUGGEST A BAND OF

MEASURABLE SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. AS OF NOW IT LOOKS LIKE ANY

ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINOR...AND WOULDN'T BE THAT VERBOSE ABOUT

THIS IN THE AFD AT THIS POINT IF NOT FOR THE NOVELTY OF THE FIRST

SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON./NOT COUNTING THE LAKE EFFECT AT THE START

OF NOV./THUS WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW OVER ENTIRE AREA ON

SATURDAY...FAVORING FAR NRN IL AND NWRN INDIANA WHERE AT THIS EARLY

STAGE...IT APPEARS ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR

STEADIER PRECIP.

DVN

POTENTIAL FOR THE FIRST SHOVELING SNOW TO ARRIVE ABOUT FRIDAY NIGHT

AND SATURDAY...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE NOT A

STRONG SYSTEM THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 1 TO 4 INCHES OF

ACCUMULATION ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWA. AT THIS

POINT IN THE GAME OUR SOUTHERN CWA WOULD HAVE A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH

LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION. OF COURSE THIS DEPENDS ON THE

EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE SYSTEM BUT WILL RELY HEAVILY ON THE MORE

CONSISTENT AND MORE RELIABLE ECM. HAVE 30-40 POPS BUT THESE WILL

PROBABLY BE RAISED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT

[BowMeHunter]

There goes the always bullish Milwaukee office throwing out amounts already, really wish they wouldn't do that.

Davenport is good for that too and they're saying a possible 1-4" I don't see no harm from either office laying out the possibilities with this little system and first potential accumulation of the season and neither office is forecasting that. What good is reading an AFD to this weenie if they don't have some dirty talk in them.

[snowstormcanuck]

For the cold lovers, absolutely.

But for snow, Detroit, like most other places in the region, has actually killed Minneapolis in recent winters in terms of snowfall. So Minneapolis is more than due for being the jackpot.

...................MSP....DTW

2002-03....35.0".....60.9"

2003-04....66.3".....24.1"

2004-05....25.5".....63.8"

2005-06....44.4".....36.3"

2006-07....35.5".....30.3"

2007-08....44.6".....71.7"

2008-09....45.0".....64.8"

2009-10....40.7".....46.1"

Detroit has beat Minneapolis in 5 of the past 8 years, several times by large margins. Detroit had about 26" more in 2002-03, over 38" more in 2004-05, about 27" more in 2007-08, and about 20" more in 2008-09.

The 8-year accumulated total shows DTW has had 61 more inches of snow than Minneapolis, a feat that goes strongly against climo.

Had no idea 2003-04 was such a clusterf*ck for DTW. 24" is horrible for a season.

[Thundersnow12]

Davenport is good for that too and they're saying a possible 1-4" I don't see no harm from either office laying out the possibilities with this little system and neither office is forecasting that.

Milwaukee is always the first to issue WSW's out of the 3 offices(DVN,LOT,MKX) Maybe LOT is just very conservative, but they have got better over the last few years.

But still, its only tues for a weekend system and already throwing out amounts is still too far out IMO.

[Indystorm]

Well I'm taking a charter shopping bus trip from Elkhart to Woodfield Mall all day Saturday. Would be nice to see some snow and not have to worry about driving in it.

[snowstormcanuck]

Milwaukee is always the first to issue WSW's out of the 3 offices(DVN,LOT,MKX) Maybe LOT is just very conservative, but they have got better over the last few years.

But still, its only tues for a weekend system and already throwing out amounts is still too far out IMO.

Winter Storm Watch? Seriously?

[BowMeHunter]

Milwaukee is always the first to issue WSW's out of the 3 offices(DVN,LOT,MKX) Maybe LOT is just very conservative, but they have got better over the last few years.

But still, its only tues for a weekend system and already throwing out amounts is still too far out IMO.

Well some models do show the potential for 2-5" in part of their zone so I still don't see the harm in mentioning the possibility especially being the first accumulating snow of the season.. Trust me though I do agree that they do tend to be trigger happy a lot and I wish they wouldn't do it.. On the whole that office just doesn't do a lot for me and I would rank them near the bottom in the MW.

[Thundersnow12]

Winter Storm Watch? Seriously?

They didn't issue one for this system, I was just saying they do in general.

[baroclinic_instability]

Ah yes, the models have flipped like usual. Was it Moneyman last night that was calling for a direct hit?

Joking aside, I think the only thing that seems likely at this point is it will be a real low amplitude upper wave with an associated frontal surface wave. MPX to Chicago area to southern MI and WI seem like a good chance now for at least some light snow accumulations.

[michsnowfreak]

Had no idea 2003-04 was such a clusterf*ck for DTW. 24" is horrible for a season.

It is. Ranks officially as 19th least snowy winter since 1880. I will say this though...the measuring was very crummy at DTW in both 2003-04 and 2004-05. Id estimate more "true" values for the airport, if measured properly, would be 30" in 2003-04 and 70" in 2004-05, versus the 24.1" and 63.8" that are official. (Imby I had 38" in 2003-04). But most major climate stations have had snowfall measuring issues within the last 15 years or so at one time or another.

The best part of the 2003-04 winter is that from January 4 til February 24th saw a solid, uninteruppted snowcover. Not terribly deep, but enough to do all the winter essentials like sledding and stuff. A case of irony as in many of the winters since, it was the complete oppositte. We werent able to hold a CONTINUOUS snowcover during the heart of winter (remember 2007-08, would lose a nice snowcover for a day or two, then itd come right back, but have to start from scratch). But the snowstorms and snowfall were plentiful. Also, one more thing about 2003-04, it was clearly a northern suburbs winter. The NWS in White Lake had 62.6"!

Speaking of bad winters, what did toronto get and where did it rank for 2009-10? I thought it was in your sig but its not. Dont blame you lol, start a fresh slate for a new season

[Thundersnow12]

15z SREF

[baroclinic_instability]

There goes the always bullish Milwaukee office throwing out amounts already, really wish they wouldn't do that.

Davenport is good for that too and they're saying a possible 1-4" I don't see no harm from either office laying out the possibilities with this little system and first potential accumulation of the season and neither office is forecasting that. What good is reading an AFD to this weenie if they don't have some dirty talk in them.

Milwaukee is always the first to issue WSW's out of the 3 offices(DVN,LOT,MKX) Maybe LOT is just very conservative, but they have got better over the last few years.

But still, its only tues for a weekend system and already throwing out amounts is still too far out IMO.

It is worth mentioning, while some members may be more aware than others, that the AFD by the local offices was never meant to be a "discussion product" for the public but was meant to be a tool for local NWS office communication between bordering NWS locations as well as for incoming shift changes. The NWS knows with the internet availability of these discussions some public citizens indeed read these AFD's and have since included things such as glossaries and such, but nonetheless, they are not an actual forecast product. That said, when they are mentioning potential amounts and threats, it doesn't mean that is directly going into the forecast grids and the forecast. Mentioning threats is definitely ok, and in a situation like this where there is a chance (smaller than what the 0Z models had last night) for locally heavy frontal banding, giving broad amounts such as 1-4" is pretty realistic. BowmeHunter is right, they are just mentioning the possibilities of this system which may include weather statements and advisories down the road that the local offices will need to confer on.

Check a typical eastern region discussion...I think their old-school discussions are better since they use a lot of more cryptic shorthand and are more tailored to local office communication. http://forecast.weat...1&highlight=off

[Northern_IN_Wx]

I have my fingers crossed for my first measurable snowfall of the year. First guess...0.7"

Anyway, I made some seasonal snowfall maps. I know, random...

[baroclinic_instability]

15z SREF

I would be careful with that plot, I believe that is the MAX qpf for any one of the given SREF members during that period. From the SPC: [MAX]: The maximum value from any member at each grid point.

The mean is prolly better, especially this far out:

[AppsRunner]

I would be careful with that plot, I believe that is the MAX qpf for any one of the given SREF members during that period. The mean is prolly better, especially this far out:

I like this one better:

Just because it eliminates any precip on the backside of the front in the extreme eastern portion of that map.

[Thundersnow12]

I would be careful with that plot, I believe that is the MAX qpf for any one of the given SREF members during that period. The mean is prolly better, especially this far out:

Yes I know, I was going to post that too but had to go do something. thanks for throwing it up here.

[baroclinic_instability]

I like this one better:

Just because it eliminates any precip on the backside of the front in the extreme eastern portion of that map.

You posted the exact same thing except mine is the "mean total" of the SREF run, the plot you posted is the actual mean of the individual SREF runs at that given forecast hour from which they derive the mean total I posted.

Edit: Forget it, I thought you were responding to the mean total I posted earlier.

[baroclinic_instability]

Yes I know, I was going to post that too but had to go do something. thanks for throwing it up here.

Yah no problem, for future reference for some members who may not know you should prolly just give a quick blurb about what you are posting so there is no confusion.

[AppsRunner]

You posted the exact same thing except mine is the "mean total" of the SREF run, the plot you posted is the actual mean of the individual SREF runs at that given forecast hour from which they derive the mean total I posted.

Edit: Forget it, I thought you were responding to the mean total I posted earlier.

Yeah, that was 3hr precip/MSLP... not total mean.

[A-L-E-K]

Yeah, that was 3hr precip/MSLP... not total mean.

The 3hr maps are my favorites at this range, the totals get wacky.

[baroclinic_instability]

Yeah, that was 3hr precip/MSLP... not total mean.

The 3hr maps are my favorites at this range, the totals get wacky.

I am not putting to much into the SREF runs right now except the general track since the mean and 3 hr charts are being dominated by the cyclogenesis happy WRF-ARW and NMM runs and the high QPF biased RSM. The eta members seem much more realistic and in-line with the operational runs (GFS/CMC/Euro) and a bit lighter on qpf. If those WRF runs pan out there will be a large band of 8-10+ inches of snow across southern MN. Seems unlikely.

[michsnowfreak]

I have my fingers crossed for my first measurable snowfall of the year. First guess...0.7"

Anyway, I made some seasonal snowfall maps. I know, random...

Very nice maps! I saved all 6 of them. I photoshopped in DTW on the 3 you didnt have their total listed for my own use, but i do notice that you were picking a few different spots for different seasons. Good idea

[Northern_IN_Wx]

Very nice maps! I saved all 6 of them. I photoshopped in DTW on the 3 you didnt have their total listed for my own use, but i do notice that you were picking a few different spots for different seasons. Good idea

Thanks! I plan to make more of them. I also have seasonal and monthly anomaly maps (back to the 2004-2005 season) and might post those at some point.

I actually did use the same points for each year. All of the tiny black circles (hard to see) are the sites I used. I tried to find more sites around the lakes for obvious reasons.

This probably wasn't the right place to post these maps but I really didn't feel like starting a new thread for something very few will probably enjoy.

Anyways, back to discussing this clipper system that has an outside shot to produce advisory amounts somewhere across Minnesota/Wisconsin...

[Chicago WX]

Thanks! I plan to make more of them. I also have seasonal and monthly anomaly maps (back to the 2004-2005 season) and might post those at some point.

I actually did use the same points for each year. All of the tiny black circles (hard to see) are the sites I used. I tried to find more sites around the lakes for obvious reasons.

This probably wasn't the right place to post these maps but I really didn't feel like starting a new thread for something very few will probably enjoy.

Anyways, back to discussing this clipper system that has an outside shot to produce advisory amounts somewhere across Minnesota/Wisconsin...

Awesome maps...thanks for sharing. Your maps put mine to shame. If you want, you can post those or any other maps in this thread:

http://www.americanw...-snowfall-maps/

[Hoosier]

Yeah, I know it's the NAM at 84 hours...