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12/3-12/6 MW/GL snow event?

Thundersnow12

By Thundersnow12,
in Central/Western States

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weatherbo

weatherbo

Posted
Posted

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA

303 PM EST SAT DEC 4 2010

SHORT TERM

..EPIC LAKE EFFECT SNOWSTORM TO TAKE SHAPE THIS PD

VIGOROUS SW TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH IL EARLY THIS AFTN WAS INDEED

SLW TO LOSE FOCUS W/NARROW HEAVY SNOWBAND OBSVD FALLING FM NE IA

THROUGH CNTRL IL AND INTO CNTRL IN. LL DRY ENTRAINMENT RIGHT OF VORT

TRACK LED TO CONSIDERABLE SUBLIMATION OF SNOW FLAKES AS WITNESSED

HERE AT THE OFFICE AND MINIMIZED SNOW ACCUMS W/HIGHEST REPORT OR 2

INCHES IN CASS COUNTY. SYS IN THE PROCESS OF ACCELERATING THROUGH

BASE OF DEEPENING LW TROUGH OVR NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND AND WILL

BRING QUITE A STORM TO THE ERN ST LAW VALLEY.

TREMENDOUS DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING WILL PROVE PIVOTAL W/DEEP CUTOFF

CYCLONE SLOW TO RETROGRADE NWWD INTO MID WEEK. THUS WWD DEEP

MERIDIONAL FLW DOWN LONG AXIS OF LK MI COMBINED W/PRECONDITIONED

PARCELS OFF LK SP LOOK TO SPELL A PROLONGED PD OF LK EFFECT SNOWFALL.

AS ALWAYS...DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS PARTICULARLY W/CONTRASTING

SOLUTIONS OF NAM AND 12KM WRF. INTERESTINGLY WRF SOLUTION AT FACE

VALUE ALIGNS QUITE WELL W/JAN 1ST/5TH 2010 ANALOGS W/INITIAL INTENSE

SINGLE BAND DVLPMNT THIS EVENING AND ALREADY WELL UNDERWAY UPSTREAM

PER REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITES AND THEN TRANSITIONING TO DUAL DIPOLE

VORTEX SEEN IN MANY PAST LK EVENTS. HWVR ALTHOUGH WRF HAS SHOWN

CONSIDERABLE CONSISTENCY LAST TWO DAYS...PREFERRED DIPOLE HAS

WAFFLED. CLIMO FVRS ERN BAND GIVEN INTENSITY OF THERMAL TROUGH IN

FACE OF DEEP SHORE PARALLEL FLW HWVR INLAND PLACEMENT STILL QUITE

UNCERTAIN AND LIKELY FURTHER MODULATED BY DEGREE OF CAA THAT WRAPS

SWD OUT OF SRN CANADA WHICH MAY HAVE YET TO BE FULLY

CAPTURED/INITIALIZED. THUS ANY CHGS THROUGH MON NIGHT WERE

INCREMENTAL IN NATURE W/NEWER GUIDANCE BLENDED IN WHERE DEEMED

APPROPRIATE. LARGEST CHG WAS TO THIS EVENING TO DELAY ERN

TRANSLATION OF SINGLE BAND GIVEN SLWD BACKING AND ADDED DETAILS IN

DERIVED POP/QPF GRIDS THROUGH MON NIGHT.

Yeah, I'm pumped!

...AFFECTING BERRIEN AND CASS COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND SAINT JOSEPH...ELKHART

MARSHALL AND KOSCIUSKO COUNTIES OF NORTHERN INDIANA. SNOW IN THESE AREASWILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SNOWFALL RATES AT TIMES OF 1 TO 3

INCHES PER HOUR.

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TheWeatherPimp

TheWeatherPimp

Posted
Posted

Yeah, I'm pumped!

...AFFECTING BERRIEN AND CASS COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND SAINT JOSEPH...ELKHART

MARSHALL AND KOSCIUSKO COUNTIES OF NORTHERN INDIANA. SNOW IN THESE AREASWILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SNOWFALL RATES AT TIMES OF 1 TO 3

INCHES PER HOUR.

I'm taking a road trip to your house for the next 48 hours :)

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hawkeye_wx

hawkeye_wx

Posted
Posted

8.5" is the total here, but I guarantee we had more than that. We were at 8.0" early this morning before I left for work, and areas that were shoveled had a fresh 2" or so. Definitely some compacting going on. Hands down the best clipper ever for me.

Are you not supposed to report 10.0 inches for your total? I used to wait until the end of storms to measure, allowing compaction to go on for up to 24 hours, but last winter OceanStWx said I should clear my snowboards after measuring(about 3 times a day, no more than 4 times). Then each of the measurements is added together and reported as the total. As I said, I used to only measure at the end of storms and I usually ended up reporting less than just about everyone in my area. Last year I added up cleaned snowboard measurements and my totals were much more in line with the other spotters around here.

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cyclone77

cyclone77

Posted
Posted

Are you not supposed to report 10.0 inches for your total? I used to wait until the end of storms to measure, allowing compaction to go on for up to 24 hours, but last winter OceanStWx said I should clear my snowboards after measuring(about 3 times a day, no more than 4 times). Then each of the measurements is added together and reported as the total. As I said, I used to only measure at the end of storms and I usually ended up reporting less than just about everyone in my area. Last year I added up cleaned snowboard measurements and my totals were much more in line with the other spotters around here.

That's what I'm not 100% sure on. I did my usual average of 3-5 locations last night and early this morning, but never cleared where I measured. It probably didn't matter much because it was still snowing pretty intensely all through the night. Early this morning I measured 8.0", and then left for work. Came home this afternoon and measured around all over and came up with 8.5" for an average, yet the large (cement) area I shoveled this morning had 2" or so. I don't have a snow board, I just measure on the patio (unless there's melting from underneath).

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hawkeye_wx

hawkeye_wx

Posted
Posted

That's what I'm not 100% sure on. I did my usual average of 3-5 locations last night and early this morning, but never cleared where I measured. It probably didn't matter much because it was still snowing pretty intensely all through the night. Early this morning I measured 8.0", and then left for work. Came home this afternoon and measured around all over and came up with 8.5" for an average, yet the large (cement) area I shoveled this morning had 2" or so. I don't have a snow board, I just measure on the patio (unless there's melting from underneath).

I've seen conflicting info. Some sites suggest the nws clears their snowboards up to 4 times a day after each official measurement. However, the snow measuring guidelines I received from the nws this fall suggests you don't clear your snowboard until the storm is over.

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cyclone77

cyclone77

Posted
Posted

I've seen conflicting info. Some sites suggest the nws clears their snowboards up to 4 times a day after each official measurement. However, the snow measuring guidelines I received from the nws this fall suggests you don't clear your snowboard until the storm is over.

I guess it kind of makes sense to clear it 4 times a day. The NWS reports their official measurements every 6hrs. I'm kind of curious as to what we would have measured had this been done. Funny thing is my 8.5" is almost as high as the highest totals in the area. This makes me think everyone else is doing the same thing as I am, otherwise there surely would have been several 10" reports. I think if I would have done the snowboard measuring method (clearing it 3-4 times per day) our total would have been at or over 10". Oh well, in the grand scheme of things the public perception in this area is we picked up about 7-9". That's what the laymen sees when they have to be out shoveling it for example.

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
Posted

about 50-55

Two years ago (I think) IWX, 7 miles form my house recorded 80" for the season.

50-55" is not too shabby, bout 10" more than I see to your north but outside the snowbelt. The 80" season could be either 07-08 or 08-09. Both were tremendous snow years throughout the region. 78" and 65" here those 2 years, this is coming with an average of 40-45".

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cyclone77

cyclone77

Posted
Posted

you had over 10 inches then....

i thought you might hit the jackpot...

People aren't going to stay up until 06z and wake up at 12z just to clear snowboards like they do at the airports or something

this is one thing that causes variations in snowfall totals while a constant amounts falls

Very true. Obviously I took numerous measurements almost every hour last night, but never cleared anything off. I just kept measuring as I was curious how fast everything was adding up.

Anyway, here's a pic I just shot of a measurement out in the yard actually right here. This is right after I dropped my camera in the snow and got the f'g lens all wet lol.

post-613-0-94533700-1291500418.jpg

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
Posted

The Lk Huron snowbelt here in Ontario is more similar to N Michigan, although less extreme, than to the snowbelts in SW MI or NE OH/NW PA because the higher latitude prevents much melting. You're right about how highly localized LES is, but, I'd rather live in a belt where there's a chance you could get a 3 footer, than down here where there's essentially no chance. Sure you'd get burned every once in a while, but the times you get smoked would surely make up for that.

I'll upgrade us from a Sahara snow desert to a Mojave if we get 2"+ snow next Thursday. :pimp:

That is a good point...seeing a 3-foot lake effect storm would be something you'd never forget. But I dont think it would act as a consolation during those times of being burned. You know how this disease that we snowlovers have works. No matter how good things are going, you are always jealous when something doesnt go right. I remember a snowstorm in late Jan 2009, after 50" had fallen in 2 months time and there was a settled 13-16" of snow on the ground, I was mad because I only received 4" from the storm when forecasts were for 4-6". It never stops, you are never cured :devilsmiley:

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Chicago Storm

Chicago Storm

Posted
Posted

I won my over bet with Caplan :)

per observer at ORD right now...

"Actually got down to 1/4 mile vis with heavy snow for a short time, but now back to 1/2 mile and moderate snow. Picked up about 0.7" in this little burst (went from 3.5" to about 4.2").

0451 PM SNOW OHARE AIRPORT 41.98N 87.90W

12/04/2010 M5.1 INCH COOK IL OFFICIAL NWS OBS

5.1 INCHES THROUGH 4 PM

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wishforsnow

wishforsnow

Posted
Posted

Yeah I was looking at a few webcams in the U.P. Bare ground in places now, plenty of snow in others. I know its hard, but sometimes patience gets rewarded real nicely :) .

Oh and snowstormcanuck, a little reverse psychology. You think you love snow now but if you lived in a snowbelt youd not like it as much. Well, a coworker of mine grew up in the snowbelt of the Keewenaw. And HATED snow. And some of the stories she has told of being snowed in almost sound unreal. She has lived downstate in the Detroit area for 20 years. So, while going from a place that averages well over 200" a winter to a place that averages 40-45" certainly is a world of difference for her, and she doesnt deny that. But she hates every inch of our snow as she did in the U.P. Two days ago, with 0.2" dusting of snow and the wind blowing briskly, she came into work and said "God I just HATE winter". Point of the story, if you have a passion for snow one way or the other, I dont think it would change based on how often you see it.

I rather put up with the snow then the car jackings, arm robberies and murders that Detroit is famous for. Here I don't have to worry about those things. I can even leave the door to my house unlocked and no one would never come into my house to rob me.

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