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12/3-12/6 MW/GL snow event?


Thundersnow12

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IWX with a good disco as usual regarding the lake effect. Here's part of their thoughts on the mesolow:

SVRL FAVORABLE FACTORS FOR SIG LES ACCUMS ERLY NEXT WEEK COMING TO FRUITION. FIRST WITH MESOLAKE VORTICY ARRIVING INVOF MCY/ CHESTERTON/WESTVILLE/WANATAH AROUND 00-03 UTC TONGIHT WITH SPIRALED BAND LKLY PENETRATING INTO SW REACHES OF CWA AS PORTENDED IN SVRL PAST NAM12 ITERATIONS. ONE CONCERN IS MSTR PRECONDITIONING OF BL AS ERN IA SHORTWAVE MOVES ESE THRU SRN GRTLKS THIS AM...PROVIDING SUBSTANTIALLY DEEP MSTR WITH 3-3.2 G/KG AIR IN 1000-850MB LYR ACRS SRN LK MICHIGAN UPON ARRIVAL OF ANTICIPATED MIDLK MESOVORTEX...WHICH MAY PROVE TO BE OF JUGGERNAUT STRENGTH.

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A few more pics.

I'm supposed to be leaving for work, but they haven't plowed the street here yet, so I'm completely stuck. Even with my new tires lol.

Doesn't look to fluffy and light? Just Perfect Blend it looks like... Hardly ever get that much snow that just falls straight down and piles up... Get 8" here and it normally involves a ripping easterly wind.

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Just topped 2" and snowing pretty good. Should do some damage in the next 2-3 hours as radar trends look favorable with the banding.

I'm just glad we made it into my 2-4" range. laugh.gif Looks like some decent banding could be setting up as you said...time to make some hay.

And wow to the amounts in Champaign, central IL, MN, IA, etc. and especially congrats to cyclone on the 8"...simply fantastic. thumbsupsmileyanim.gif

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I'm just glad we made it into my 2-4" range. laugh.gif Looks like some decent banding could be setting up as you said...time to make some hay.

And wow to the amounts in Champaign, central IL, MN, IA, etc. and especially congrats to cyclone on the 8"...simply fantastic. thumbsupsmileyanim.gif

Snow was actually tending to melt on the pavement here at first. Very picturesque out there.

If we're grading calls, then my initial one of a streak of 3-6" through Indiana looks like it will turn out pretty good. I think I leaned the right way with 3-5" instead of 2-4" as I feel that is going to be a slightly better representation of amounts in that band, but we shall see...not a huge difference. If somebody in the cwa is going to make a run at 6", it might be down toward Putnam/Parke/Vermillion since they already had 3" a while ago.

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Snow was actually tending to melt on the pavement here at first. Very picturesque out there.

If we're grading calls, then my initial one of a streak of 3-6" through Indiana looks like it will turn out pretty good. I think I leaned the right way with 3-5" instead of 2-4" as I feel that is going to be a slightly better representation of amounts in that band, but we shall see...not a huge difference. If somebody in the cwa is going to make a run at 6", it might be down toward Putnam/Parke/Vermillion since they already had 3" a while ago.

Great call by you as usual...well done. smile.gif Did you pull an all-nighter?

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I hope this storm teaches everyone a lesson in forecasting potential banded precip events, the kind of gradients that can develop, and the potential for heavy snow...the fact models will flip-flop back and forth yet one needs to keep a realistic forecast, and that these type of events are impossible to nail down 4-5 days out. Snowman.gif

TRUST me, it wont teach a lesson LOL, Ive been on these boards too long to know the drill. It doesnt matter how big or small the storm, or what region the storm is in.... 1-2 days before the event and on through the event, people in the areas that eventually end up in or almost in the jackpot say things like "Im worried the models are edging down qpf".."snow seems late, too much virga".."NWS warning/advisory is going to bust way high"..."no way I get XX inches when I only have X.X so far".. "XX town and XX town have XX inches but no impressive bands have hit my town".... etc etc etc. In the end, no worries were needed. Keep in mind Im not making fun of anyone, not even in a playful way, as all of us weenies do it some of the time, and some weenies do it all of the time. Also, it doesnt matter how many snowstorms you get, you still do the same thing every time (see the 70-100" of synoptic snow that fell in a Madison to Detroit line in 2007-08, and all the complaining/worrying that still went with it). Its just the nature of loving snow and knowing enough about meteorology to do more than just watch the 6:00 news. Watching models, radars, and knowing climo does nothing but add stress to a snowlovers life :)

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Doesn't look to fluffy and light? Just Perfect Blend it looks like... Hardly ever get that much snow that just falls straight down and piles up... Get 8" here and it normally involves a ripping easterly wind.

Powder (12-15:1 ratio) is my favorite snow, over fluff or cement. Powder that falls with little wind is even better still. Reminds me of Jan 9/10, 2009. Got 8" of calm powder. Nothing like romping through it. Onto the Dec 9/10 clipper for us :)

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

738 AM CST SAT DEC 04 2010

...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON.....DATE... ....MAG....

..TIME... ...EVENT...

..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS..

12/04/2010 M7.0 INCH LA SALLE IL PUBLIC

0737 AM SNOW STREATOR 41.13N 88.83 W

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TRUST me, it wont teach a lesson LOL, Ive been on these boards too long to know the drill. It doesnt matter how big or small the storm, or what region the storm is in.... 1-2 days before the event and on through the event, people in the areas that eventually end up in or almost in the jackpot say things like "Im worried the models are edging down qpf".."snow seems late, too much virga".."NWS warning/advisory is going to bust way high"..."no way I get XX inches when I only have X.X so far".. "XX town and XX town have XX inches but no impressive bands have hit my town".... etc etc etc. In the end, no worries were needed. Keep in mind Im not making fun of anyone, not even in a playful way, as all of us weenies do it some of the time, and some weenies do it all of the time. Also, it doesnt matter how many snowstorms you get, you still do the same thing every time (see the 70-100" of synoptic snow that fell in a Madison to Detroit line in 2007-08, and all the complaining/worrying that still went with it). Its just the nature of loving snow and knowing enough about meteorology to do more than just watch the 6:00 news. Watching models, radars, and knowing climo does nothing but add stress to a snowlovers life :)

One more thing...another word of warning for all to remember for the long winter that lies ahead. As a general rule, clippers tend to overperform and cutters tend to underperform.

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Wow just went outside to measure for the second time. Measured 7.25 inches last night at 11 PM. Measured in the same area where I removed the snow last night and measured another 6.5 inches. Location is about halfway between La crosse Wisconsin and Rochester Minnesota. It snowed pretty much moderately to heavily from about 445PM last night until about 7 this morning. The clipper type systems often times over produce in this region of the country it seems.

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