Hoosier Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Just eyeballing out the window I'm guessing about 1" so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 0.3" here over a 2hr period. ...seems wet too. About 1" here over 4hrs. Nothing more than light snow thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 301 AM CST SAT DEC 4 2010 DISCUSSION 300 AM CST FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...COVERING THE ADVISORY PERIOD... WINTER WEATHER HAS BEEN EVOLVING MOSTLY AS EXPECTED SO FAR. EARLY IN THE EVENT FRIDAY EVENING THE HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOW WAS STRADDLING THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE LOT CWA...WITH MAX RATES OF ONE INCH PER HOUR. THIS IS IN THE AREA WHERE AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 7 INCHES PREVIOUSLY WERE DEEMED MOST LIKELY. SO FAR THE TOTALS EXCEEDING 6 INCHES HAVE ALL BEEN IN A VERY NARROW BAND RUNNING FROM CHAMPAIGN COUNTY TO MARSHALL COUNTY. ALTHOUGH THESE HIGHER AMOUNTS DO APPEAR LIKELY TO WORK THEIR WAY NORTH INTO PORTIONS OF FORD...LIVINGSTON... AND LA SALLE COUNTIES...HAVE FOR SEVERAL REASONS DECIDED AGAINST UPGRADING TO A WARNING AT THIS LATE HOUR. THIS EARLIER HEAVY SNOW BAND WAS WELL CORRELATED WITH AN AREA OF PROLONGED AND STRONG 700MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE DEPICTED IN THE RUC MODEL. A CORRESPONDING FRONTOGENETICAL BAND IN THE 600-700MB LAYER WAS ALSO PRESENT IN THE RUC FOR ROUGHLY THE SAME FIVE HOUR PERIOD. FOLLOWING THE SAME MODEL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND THEN REINTENSIFY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-80 AND WEST OF I-65 COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL FOUR INCHES OF SNOWFALL THROUGH 9 OR 10 AM...WITH SNOW SLOWLY TAPERING OFF DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD VERY LIKELY BRING STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL ABOVE THE 6 INCH MARK FOR PARTS OF FORD...LIVINGSTON...AND LA SALLE COUNTIES...THOUGH STILL BELIEVE MOST OF THE AREA IN THOSE COUNTIES WILL STAY BELOW THE WARNING CRITERIA FOR A 12 AND 24 HOUR SNOWFALL. OTHER LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE LESSER AMOUNTS...THOUGH THE EXCEPTION COULD BE PORTIONS OF LAKE AND COOK COUNTIES IN ILLINOIS IF A MESOLOW DEVELOPS AND WORKS ITS WAY DOWN THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LAKE AS THE HIGHER RESOLUTION RUC AND NAM MODELS HAVE BEEN DEPICTING. SINCE RELATIVELY LITTLE SNOW HAS FALLEN SO FAR IN THESE TWO COUNTIES...AND SINCE THE NAM AND RUC BOTH APPEAR TO FOCUS THE BRUNT OF MESOLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL NORTH OF THE WISCONSIN LINE...AM NOT PRESENTLY ANTICIPATING THE NEED FOR A SEPARATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW HEADLINE FOR THOSE COUNTIES. LENNING Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 0300 AM HEAVY SNOW CHAMPAIGN 40.11N 88.26W 12/04/2010 M8.0 INCH CHAMPAIGN IL MESONET MEASURED 8 INCHES OF SNOW WITH A HALF INCH IN THE PAST HOUR. CURRENTLY GETTING LIGHT SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Surprisingly poor snowfall rates for the most part tonight. Only 1.5" or so since 9 pm. Only just now getting anything halfway decent as far as rates are concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Surprisingly poor snowfall rates for the most part tonight. Only 1.5" or so since 9 pm. Only just now getting anything halfway decent as far as rates are concerned. Lacking in the DGZ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Lacking in the DGZ? Don't really know. Flake size hasn't been terrible and ratios seem fine. Just lacking in intensity. Might finally get a decent band in the next 1-2 hours though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Don't really know. Flake size hasn't been terrible and ratios seem fine. Just lacking in intensity. Might finally get a decent band in the next 1-2 hours though. Hmm I wonder if maybe there was a dry layer aloft that slowed the snowfall rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Hmm I wonder if maybe there was a dry layer aloft that slowed the snowfall rates. Yeah, it seems the best snows are incredibly localized in tight, narrow bands thusfar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Yeah, it seems the best snows are incredibly localized in tight, narrow bands thusfar. Yeah, those areas really are over achieving while areas like yours are under achieving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Haha, I gripe about it, and now we're getting 1/3 to 1/2 SM and moderate snow. Temperamental little system. Edit: Something funky going on just off the western shore of LM by ORD. It could be propagation of the synoptic snow, but I think I detect some northward moving returns. Our mesolow getting underway slowly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Any decent returns get munched up before reaching here as expected... Heavy dusting so far for 4 hrs of snow. LES going to have to do a # to get the 4-6" possible forecasted. Vibes of last winter brought back as I patiently (haha) wait for something other than very light sugar snow to excite me. Buried Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Over 8 inches now, and still snowing lightly. Way more than I expected to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Over 8 inches now, and still snowing lightly. Way more than I expected to say the least. Was nothing to be worried about. HaHa congrats man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Nice pics guys.....talk to my friend in naperville IL they have around to 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Over 8 inches now, and still snowing lightly. Way more than I expected to say the least. you may be the jackpot....you wil likely be in the sw edge of the deformation snows later may hit 10 inch mark IKK 1/4 mile vis eith mod-heavy snow looks like i got 3-4 on thr NNW side of PIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 I hope this storm teaches everyone a lesson in forecasting potential banded precip events, the kind of gradients that can develop, and the potential for heavy snow...the fact models will flip-flop back and forth yet one needs to keep a realistic forecast, and that these type of events are impossible to nail down 4-5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Getting into some heavier bands now. Legit moderate snow out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Was nothing to be worried about. HaHa congrats man Haha yeah yeah. Well we all get a little bit jumpy sometimes before the storm hits lol. I know I was! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Over 8 inches now, and still snowing lightly. Way more than I expected to say the least. This storm has definitely been a fun one. I was thinking high end for the Twin Cities would be 8-9 inches, but now some foot amounts are likely. Looks like it did well for you too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Some reports of 3" to my south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Does anyone know how much la cross has? Seems they have been in great banding all night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Does anyone know how much la cross has? Seems they have been in great banding all night PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI333 AM CST SAT DEC 04 2010..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON.....DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS..0330 AM HEAVY SNOW 3 E LA CROSSE 43.83N 91.17W12/04/2010 M6.2 INCH LA CROSSE WI NWS EMPLOYEE NWS LA CROSSE That is the latest LSR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI333 AM CST SAT DEC 04 2010..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON.....DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS..0330 AM HEAVY SNOW 3 E LA CROSSE 43.83N 91.17W12/04/2010 M6.2 INCH LA CROSSE WI NWS EMPLOYEE NWS LA CROSSE That is the latest LSR. Thanks...hope you enjoyed this event, seemed like alot of fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 I hope this storm teaches everyone a lesson in forecasting potential banded precip events, the kind of gradients that can develop, and the potential for heavy snow...the fact models will flip-flop back and forth yet one needs to keep a realistic forecast, and that these type of events are impossible to nail down 4-5 days out. Probably the biggest surprise for me so far is what happened around Champaign IL. Banded precip/localized heavier amount, sure, but you're always a little taken back when you see it outperform to that extent. At least I am. Fascinating stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 IWX has a Lake Effect Snow Advisory all the way to Fort Wayne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 A few more pics. I'm supposed to be leaving for work, but they haven't plowed the street here yet, so I'm completely stuck. Even with my new tires lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 IWX has a Lake Effect Snow Advisory all the way to Fort Wayne. You going on 3 hours of sleep the last few days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Probably the biggest surprise for me so far is what happened around Champaign IL. Banded precip/localized heavier amount, sure, but you're always a little taken back when you see it outperform to that extent. At least I am. Fascinating stuff. Yeah agreed. That band was awesome...saw it earlier. I guess I always take it from a forecasting perspective, and when you do, it is definitely frustrating and difficult. Really the only thing you can do is give a general amount then target areas where the probability for heavier local banding is possible and maybe bump up forecast totals a tad (or give a larger range). As for that band, I saw some 35+ dbz in there...had to be some conditional instability released along that frontal zone. Impressive stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 A few more pics. I'm supposed to be leaving for work, but they haven't plowed the street here yet, so I'm completely stuck. Even with my new tires lol. I think you would prob be okay...that looks like alot of powder....but 5am saturday morning after 8 of snow, i would get stuck also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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