cyclone77 Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 What an amazing cutoff to the snow on the southwestern edge. Wherever that thing stalls will be interesting, as it could separate several inches from 1" or less amounts over a matter of 5-10 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 What an amazing cutoff to the snow on the southwestern edge. Wherever that thing stalls will be interesting, as it could separate several inches from 1" or less amounts over a matter of 5-10 miles. It definitely is looking like left of a line from Independence through the Quad Cities is going to be disappointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 I'm glad I didn't get excited about this system. I was hopeful the GFS's wetter southern edge would be right, but knew if the system's edge was drier or tracked slightly farther northeast(NAM) Cedar Rapids wouldn't get too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 It definitely is looking like left of a line from Independence through the Quad Cities is going to be disappointed. Yeah it sure is unfortunately. Hopefully the late-night wraparound snows lay down some accumulations there. Have you guys measured the ratios of the snow yet? I haven't had a chance to really look at anything in detail yet. If I were to make a guess it sure seems like at least 13-16:1 ratio type snows. It actually feels drier than that, but you wouldn't think the ratios would be that high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Yeah it sure is unfortunately. Hopefully the late-night wraparound snows lay down some accumulations there. Have you guys measured the ratios of the snow yet? I haven't had a chance to really look at anything in detail yet. If I were to make a guess it sure seems like at least 13-16:1 ratio type snows. It actually feels drier than that, but you wouldn't think the ratios would be that high. Actually, we measured better than 20:1 here at the office. 2.3" with 0.11 liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Actually, we measured better than 20:1 here at the office. 2.3" with 0.11 liquid. Wow! Definitely some high ratios in that first heavy band. I imagine the ratios will drop as the evening wears on, as mid-level WAA continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Wow! Definitely some high ratios in that first heavy band. I imagine the ratios will drop as the evening wears on, as mid-level WAA continues. I would guess we're doing close to 10:1 now with this finer snow. But DVN still has the lowest visibilities in the CWA, surprisingly since we are normally the snow hole. What a difference no wind makes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 LOT radar shows snow making it to about 5000 feet before evaporating (via VAD wind profile) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 LOT radar shows snow making it to about 5000 feet before evaporating (via VAD wind profile) We were using about 3kft as a good estimate for start of snowfall. It was working well for sern Minnesota on through here this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 4, 2010 Author Share Posted December 4, 2010 We were using about 3kft as a good estimate for start of snowfall. It was working well for sern Minnesota on through here this afternoon. How much you got at the office out there? This stuff better start getting here quicker or its gonna miss us all to the southwest! just kidding. some nice bands back up to the northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 The RUC sure is out to lunch. The last few runs I looked at had little or no QPF surrounding the immediate QC. The 21z run showed the same, and apparently parts of the QC are probably already approaching 0.15". A bit disappointed with it's performance. I would usually rely heavily on it in these types of situations, but I won't be after seeing that lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 The RUC sure is out to lunch. The last few runs I looked at had little or no QPF surrounding the immediate QC. The 21z run showed the same, and apparently parts of the QC are probably already approaching 0.15". A bit disappointed with it's performance. I would usually rely heavily on it in these types of situations, but I won't be after seeing that lol. Yah, the RUC is worthless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 How much you got at the office out there? This stuff better start getting here quicker or its gonna miss us all to the southwest! just kidding. some nice bands back up to the northwest. We're probably closing in on 3" or so now. We've been pretty close to a half inch and hour since that band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 4, 2010 Author Share Posted December 4, 2010 The HRRR has been consistently shifting the heaviest band to the northeast by a tad each of the last few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Yup, clippers typically end up farther NE than modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 The HRRR has been consistently shifting the heaviest band to the northeast by a tad each of the last few runs. If I understand correctly, the HRRR is run off the RUC, so if the RUC is garbage so will the HRRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 We're probably closing in on 3" or so now. We've been pretty close to a half inch and hour since that band. Pretty impressive. The rates with these new lighter bands are better than I thought they'd be. The relatively high PWs are no doubt contributing to that. The flake size is much smaller than earlier, but it's essentially "pouring" snow out there. It's very dense and you can actually hear it hitting the ground when you're outside in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Heavy heavy snoe southeast of rochester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 How much you got at the office out there? This stuff better start getting here quicker or its gonna miss us all to the southwest! just kidding. some nice bands back up to the northwest. Between the QC and De Kalb will be the sweet spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 If I understand correctly, the HRRR is run off the RUC, so if the RUC is garbage so will the HRRR. The HRRR has also been intializing rather poorly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Pretty impressive. The rates with these new lighter bands are better than I thought they'd be. The relatively high PWs are no doubt contributing to that. The flake size is much smaller than earlier, but it's essentially "pouring" snow out there. It's very dense and you can actually hear it hitting the ground when you're outside in it. Thanks for the obs. Don't know if we'll have any period of 20:1 but based on what you guys upstream have been saying and what BUFKIT is suggesting, I think we could very possibly average a 12-14:1 ratio for the event. Snow in Champaign now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Between the QC and De Kalb will be the sweet spot. yeah, Dubuque to Sterling to Ottawa looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 yeah, Dubuque to Sterling to Ottawa looking good. DBQ always does well, wouldn't be surprised at all if they were tops in our CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 The radars in N. IL has lite up real nice. wow, must be awesome. If the snow was closer I would take a 2 hour drive to check it out, but it's just to far away. Get ready for some big time cold after this with the snow cover. Enjoy the snow guys. How are things looking in terms of overcoming dry air? is it on schedule, ahead? The faster the saturation the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Dubuque to Sterling/Dixon may be where the heaviest band stalls and then pivots later tonight. Someone in that zone could get a few extra inches if things work out right. Isolated 7-8" amounts in that area don't seem too out of the question. Up to 2.3" here by the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 4+, doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 735 PM CST FRI DEC 03 2010 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 0734 PM SNOW MANKATO 44.17N 93.99W 12/03/2010 M7.0 INCH BLUE EARTH MN BROADCAST MEDIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 I've got advisories to my SW and Lake Effect Watches to my NW. I guess I'll take my inch and LES showers and be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Went up a degree to 33. Dewpoint still 22 though...I imagine we will take care of this foolishness and settle a bit below freezing when snow begins. Looks like the 00z NAM is shifting the main band a little farther north to fit more in line with the consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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