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12/3-12/6 MW/GL snow event?


Thundersnow12

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November starts out avg/mild for the first week or so and then more late fall/early winter like weather conditions ease itself south and east for most of the rest of the month. Seeing record or near record snows for the high plains and NW MN. Sometime around Nov 21st. give or take 3 days there will be a big storm with a swath of 10-16".. Some cities to be heavily effected include, Ely, Hibbing, Brainerd, St Cloud, MSP, Hinckley, and all of NW Wisconsin. I wouldn't rule out a shift to the east with that main band either where it ends up clocking most of SE MN up through La Crosse, Black River Falls and on through north central WI. I think our best chances for accumulating snow over 1" will be with a late month clipper that drops 2-4" on the lucky ones in the track. Bold 60% chance for a rare of late white Thanksgiving in MKE.

:guitar:

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It's a pretty believable situation based on climo. I'll take my 1/3" :snowman:

I suppose.

You can see the seeds already being planted for the next system being crushed to the south and delivering the goods to TX, LA, etc. Although the LES guns should be up and running in the extended.

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ugh...

the 12zgfs is horrendous. I'd take blowtorch over cold and dry anyday. That damn vortex plants itself over n. new england and basically cuts everything off from clippers to southern systems. Maybe some instability flurries and snowshowers in the air...

yippee

It's also a BS/worthless solution past about 100 hr, so I wouldn't worry too much over it.

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ugh...

the 12zgfs is horrendous. I'd take blowtorch over cold and dry anyday. That damn vortex plants itself over n. new england and basically cuts everything off from clippers to southern systems. Maybe some instability flurries and snowshowers in the air...

yippee

Don't worry the GFS bashers and optimist will have us buried by mid-month ;)

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ugh...

the 12zgfs is horrendous. I'd take blowtorch over cold and dry anyday. That damn vortex plants itself over n. new england and basically cuts everything off from clippers to southern systems. Maybe some instability flurries and snowshowers in the air...

yippee

On the flip side, if the New England vortex wasn't there the low would chug up balmy gulf of Mexico air and we'd be saying congrats Fargo/Minneapolis either way.

lose-lose situation either way.

Oh well, it's still only November. :arrowhead:

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it is clear we are putting the cart before the horse. Remember the christmas storm last year, while in the end even I had 3-4 inches out of it in different waves. We started and it was a lower OV hit, then it trended north and north and yeah!!!

It is really hard to not want to start threats a week out becuase we have Umket, Euro, GFS, GEFS, EURO-E, GEM-E, Dgex, JMA, if I am leaving anyone out forgive me. So many models, so many solutions, so much false hope.

If this misses that is 0 for 2.

Maybe we can start the Unofficially storm thread, then when it gets to 4 days we start the semi official.

then when it's snowing we can start the official thread.

I wonder if things would be more fun if we had two models to look at or just the big three.

I know that every year I will be lucky for two good events. three and it;s great like 06-07, 07-08 here was very nice, 08-09 sucked, 09-10 was ok, but I had snow 40-50 days so that was nice.

I am holding out for that one year where things go crazy and we get 5-7 good events and 2-3 major events, like 1993 back to back 8 inches then 11. That was amazing.

or the Jan 1st 1999 when will we get such a huge winter storm..I will take 3 inches of snow and 5 of sleet on top of it any day.

end rant!

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