BowMeHunter Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Oh, they revised it because they left out the longterm completely at first. Gotcha.. Cuzz I could feel the weenie in me getting a little pumped reading it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Gotcha.. Cuzz I could feel the weenie in me getting a little pumped reading it. Same here.... I don't think I blinked the entire time I was reading it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Gotcha.. Cuzz I could feel the weenie in me getting a little pumped reading it. That just sounds wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 We're flirting with 1/2SM SN right now at the office. That took about an hour to saturate and start ripping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 That just sounds wrong. I really should have took a nap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Starting to snow here. It has finally saturated. Also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 We're flirting with 1/2SM SN right now at the office. That took about an hour to saturate and start ripping. my few fine flakes have turned into a more sold light snow now but looks like it will move off to the ENE for both of us some 5 inch amounts now reported in MN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 We're flirting with 1/2SM SN right now at the office. That took about an hour to saturate and start ripping. Only an hour? Wow...that's impressive and may portend an interesting system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 my few fine flakes have turned into a more sold light snow now but looks like it will move off to the ENE for both of us some 5 inch amounts now reported in MN I'm not sure how quickly this band is going to drift northeast. You can see another fine edge developing in Muscatine County now. This may just sit in place for long enough to give us 3" or so before lifting out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 3, 2010 Author Share Posted December 3, 2010 HRRR showing some impressive banding as we get to later this evening and overnight. already a nice looking band going on out to the west of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Interestingly, 18z NAM BUFKIT is still showing a saturated DGZ about 100 mb thick with a bullseye of lift around 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 3, 2010 Author Share Posted December 3, 2010 Interestingly, 18z NAM BUFKIT is still showing a saturated DGZ about 100 mb thick with a bullseye of lift around 12z. still like my 3-6" call for here, 18z NAM did come in a bit wetter fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 I really should have took a nap What was my call this morning 2-5", 3-5" or something? I can't remember. Either will work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 still like my 3-6" call for here, 18z NAM did come in a bit wetter fwiw. Yeah I was debating between 2-4" or 3-5" but I decided on the latter given the somewhat prolonged nature of the event and at least a chance of decent ratios along with some potential heavier banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 What was my call this morning 2-5", 3-5" or something? I can't remember. Either will work. Yup one of those two. My 1-2" call looking fine although I still worry I don't even verify the 1" Don't forget about putting your cam up so $, me and eastern MI can see what steady snow falling looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 MLI Moderate snow Vis 1/2mile here on the faar NNW edge of PIA light snow vis about 1 mile but only cloudy at the airport 8-9 miles to my SSW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 We were definitely 1/4SM +SN for a while there, probably close to an inch now (in slightly under an hour). Convective snows breaking out in central Iowa now too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 LOT going with 3-7" in Cook for system/lake snows and more in Lake/Porter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 348 PM CST FRI DEC 3 2010 DISCUSSION 348 PM CST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT... APOLOGIZE FOR THE LATE AFD...BEEN RUNNING BEHIND ALL DAY DUE TO BIG DATA OUTAGE TODAY. GOING FORECAST FOR UPCOMING STORM IS PRETTY MUCH RIGHT ON TRACK WITH JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO TIMING OF HEADLINES TO COINCIDE WITH EXPECTED TIMING OF SNOWFALL. INTENSE VERTICAL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH NARROW MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC BAND HAS SATURATED COLUMN FROM TOP DOWN WITH A NARROW BAND OF SOME RESPECTABLE SNOW MARCHING EAST INTO NW IL AT MID AFTERNOON. THIS BAND WILL RESULT IN A BIT EARLIER ARRIVAL TIME FOR SNOWFALL OVER OUR WESTERN CWA THIS EVENING AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE START TIME OF THE ADVISORY UP A FEW HOURS THERE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. RUC/WRF-NAM SUGGEST THIS BAND WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD INTO NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...AS THIS OCCURS EXPECT DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT TO INCREASE AS LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE RESULTING IN AN EXPANDING AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW. EVENT LOOKS TO BE ROUGHLY A 12 HOUR LONG PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH IT WINDING DOWN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE CWA. HAVE MAINTAINED HIGHEST FORECAST SNOWFALL TOTALS OVER OUR WESTERN CWA WHERE THIS INITIAL FRONTOGENETIC BAND WILL PROBABLY NUDGE TOTALS UPWARD AN INCH OR TWO. GENERALLY EXPECT SNOWFALL TOTALS TO END UP IN THE 3-5 INCH RANGE THOUGH CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT ISOLATED 6-7 INCH TOTALS OVER WESTERN CWA. PROBABLY THE BIGGEST WILD CARD LEADING INTO THIS EVENT IS THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL. HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS BEEN DEVELOPING A MESOLOW OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AS GRADIENT COLLAPSES TONIGHT AND LAND BREEZE DEVELOPS. THERMODYNAMICALLY...THIS IS HARDLY THAT SPECTACULAR OF A SET UP FOR LAKE EFFECT WITH FAIRLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY...HOWEVER GIVEN THE CONSISTENCY OF THE VARIOUS MODELS SUPPOSE THERE IS A GOOD PROBABILITY OF A MESOLOW FEATURE DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT. UNFORTUNATELY THE MOVEMENT OF THESE FEATURES IS ALL THAT PREDICTABLE AND SINCE THEY TEND TO FOCUS CONVERGENCE AND LEAD TO INTENSE SNOW BANDS IT IS WORRISOME THAT THE MODELS ALL DEVELOP ONE. PLAN OF ATTACK FOR NOW IS TO MENTION LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS NEAR THE LAKE...PARTICULARLY OVER NW INDY SAT NIGHT WHERE DURATION OF LAKE EFFECT MAY BE LONGER. DID GIVE SERIOUS CONSIDERATION TO UPGRADING LAKESIDE COUNTIES TO WARNINGS...BUT MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH THE UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF MESOLOW AND ITS EVENTUAL MOVEMENT IF IT DOES DEVELOP REALLY GAVE ME HESITATION ON UPGRADING AT THIS TIME. QUITE POSSIBLE THAT LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO BUMP UP SNOW TOTALS AND UPGRADE TO A WARNING FOR AREAS NEAR THE LAKE ONCE LAKE EFFECT SHOWS THE WHITES OF ITS EYES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 It still seems like the snow is farther north then what the models show. Maybe it's just me being a weeine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 3, 2010 Author Share Posted December 3, 2010 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 348 PM CST FRI DEC 3 2010 DISCUSSION 348 PM CST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT... APOLOGIZE FOR THE LATE AFD...BEEN RUNNING BEHIND ALL DAY DUE TO BIG DATA OUTAGE TODAY. GOING FORECAST FOR UPCOMING STORM IS PRETTY MUCH RIGHT ON TRACK WITH JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO TIMING OF HEADLINES TO COINCIDE WITH EXPECTED TIMING OF SNOWFALL. INTENSE VERTICAL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH NARROW MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC BAND HAS SATURATED COLUMN FROM TOP DOWN WITH A NARROW BAND OF SOME RESPECTABLE SNOW MARCHING EAST INTO NW IL AT MID AFTERNOON. THIS BAND WILL RESULT IN A BIT EARLIER ARRIVAL TIME FOR SNOWFALL OVER OUR WESTERN CWA THIS EVENING AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE START TIME OF THE ADVISORY UP A FEW HOURS THERE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. RUC/WRF-NAM SUGGEST THIS BAND WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD INTO NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...AS THIS OCCURS EXPECT DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT TO INCREASE AS LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE RESULTING IN AN EXPANDING AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW. EVENT LOOKS TO BE ROUGHLY A 12 HOUR LONG PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH IT WINDING DOWN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE CWA. HAVE MAINTAINED HIGHEST FORECAST SNOWFALL TOTALS OVER OUR WESTERN CWA WHERE THIS INITIAL FRONTOGENETIC BAND WILL PROBABLY NUDGE TOTALS UPWARD AN INCH OR TWO. GENERALLY EXPECT SNOWFALL TOTALS TO END UP IN THE 3-5 INCH RANGE THOUGH CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT ISOLATED 6-7 INCH TOTALS OVER WESTERN CWA. PROBABLY THE BIGGEST WILD CARD LEADING INTO THIS EVENT IS THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL. HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS BEEN DEVELOPING A MESOLOW OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AS GRADIENT COLLAPSES TONIGHT AND LAND BREEZE DEVELOPS. THERMODYNAMICALLY...THIS IS HARDLY THAT SPECTACULAR OF A SET UP FOR LAKE EFFECT WITH FAIRLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY...HOWEVER GIVEN THE CONSISTENCY OF THE VARIOUS MODELS SUPPOSE THERE IS A GOOD PROBABILITY OF A MESOLOW FEATURE DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT. UNFORTUNATELY THE MOVEMENT OF THESE FEATURES IS ALL THAT PREDICTABLE AND SINCE THEY TEND TO FOCUS CONVERGENCE AND LEAD TO INTENSE SNOW BANDS IT IS WORRISOME THAT THE MODELS ALL DEVELOP ONE. PLAN OF ATTACK FOR NOW IS TO MENTION LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS NEAR THE LAKE...PARTICULARLY OVER NW INDY SAT NIGHT WHERE DURATION OF LAKE EFFECT MAY BE LONGER. DID GIVE SERIOUS CONSIDERATION TO UPGRADING LAKESIDE COUNTIES TO WARNINGS...BUT MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH THE UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF MESOLOW AND ITS EVENTUAL MOVEMENT IF IT DOES DEVELOP REALLY GAVE ME HESITATION ON UPGRADING AT THIS TIME. QUITE POSSIBLE THAT LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO BUMP UP SNOW TOTALS AND UPGRADE TO A WARNING FOR AREAS NEAR THE LAKE ONCE LAKE EFFECT SHOWS THE WHITES OF ITS EYES. Gino with a nice write up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Snowing in a few places in SW WI now. I'd say only a couple hours till things start at MSN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Good look at the snow area that will translate into 3-6" snowfall across Illinois into central and southern Indiana, into southwest Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 There's a report of 2.5 inches 25 miles to my ene, but I still haven't seen a flake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Just got home from the QC. Had to get new tires put on and had made an appointment for 3. I figured the snow wouldn't start until about 5 or 6. Boy was I wrong lol. Started snowing like hell as soon as I got there. By the time I left around 4:30 they had to be pushing 2". Roads were pretty snow packed and very greasy. Looks like I've picked up almost an inch and a half so far here. The snow seems surprisingly dry and fluffy. Don't know if that's just because the big dendritic flakes didn't pack down as much or what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 I've had light snow for about an hour... Heavy snow over Rochester to the west. Plan on going out and doing donuts when the roads get greasy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 There's a report of 2.5 inches 25 miles to my ene, but I still haven't seen a flake. We knew it was going to be a sharp cut off to the south, but this is razor sharp. We have 2.3" at the office here and Muscatine has yet to report -SN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 There's a report of 2.5 inches 25 miles to my ene, but I still haven't seen a flake. I did see some snow about 90 minutes ago but it was only a dusting. Hasn't snowed since then. :| Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Just got home from the QC. Had to get new tires put on and had made an appointment for 3. So how did the new tires hold up in the snow? I love getting a new set of tires and being able to test them out right away! Things seem to be on target with our system, if not an hour or two ahead of schedule. Looking at the 3-hour qpf accumulation on the 12h panel (06z UTC Saturday) of the 18z NAM, the current radar seems to be following suit, laying down some snow right where it's expected. Looking forward to waking up to some white tomorrow morning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 So how did the new tires hold up in the snow? I love getting a new set of tires and being able to test them out right away! They handled pretty well actually. Certainly a whole hell of a lot better than the old ones would have lol. They were getting pretty worn. Snow picking back up a bit again here after a lull. Just took a measurement, sitting at 1.8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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