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12/3-12/6 MW/GL snow event?

Thundersnow12

By Thundersnow12,
in Central/Western States

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Northern_IN_Wx

Northern_IN_Wx

Posted
Posted

I'm riding the euro until the end.

Here are my calls:

Chicago: 5-7

Milwaukee: 3-5

FDL: 1-3

Madison: 4-6

Laf: 3-5

MSP: 7-9

S. MN: 6-8

La Crosse: 5-7

South Bend: 5-7

I went more with a SREF/GFS/Euro/GEFS/GEM blend

Chicago: 2-4 (4-6" just west of town)

Milwaukee: 1-3 (this does not include lake effect potential)

MSN: 3-5

LAF: 3-4

MSP: 3-6 (6-10 southwest of town)

La Crosse: 5-7

South Bend: 1-3

My Backyard (Warsaw, IN): 0.5-2

And then it is on to Lake Effect!

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tuanis

tuanis

Posted
Posted

Tom's skills are fading with old age.

Skilling has always hyped events and sided with any model run that rocks the city. He's as much of a snow weenie as the rest of us. His projected accums. have always been aggressive and at times straight-up ballsy. He's been burned on plenty of storms in the last few years, but his higher amounts occasionally verify when other area mets are predicting way less (Jerry Taft), especially with poorly-modeled or particularly strong southern stream storms as Skilling catches onto late-in-the-game trends quickly (only because he follows things as closely as we do - and even closer with all the toys at his disposal)

On that note, looking at the current US radar and comparing it to what the 12z NAM was predicting at this time... I think we do just fine in Chicagoland - generally 2"-5" area wide, with highest totals in southern Cook County and the far western burbs (Fox River Valley)

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A-L-E-K

A-L-E-K

Posted
Posted

That HRRR 15hr grab you posted looked to extend the best of the band straight through the metro area. It's up a few posts.

That band was stronger to our west and south and weakened to that state by hr15 when it reached the city. That said the solution probably delivers at least a couple inches to the city.

Newest run a bit stronger with the band, heaviest south and west of the city, but not a bad hit.

cref_t2sfc_f15.png

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BowMeHunter

BowMeHunter

Posted
Posted

Milwacky

WE ARE CONTINUED THE ADVY FOR ALL BUT NE COUNTIES...BUT MADE

ADJUSTMENTS TO THE START TIMES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOWER ARRIVAL OF

THE SYSTEM.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW THE SHORTWAVE

OF INTEREST OVER WESTERN MT...ID AND SOUTHERN OREGON. THERE IS A

LEADING VORTICITY MAX AHEAD OF THE STRONG SHORTWAVE STRETCHING

ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND A DEVELOPING SFC LOW OVER WESTERN SD

AND WESTERN NE. A SWATH OF SNOW ALREADY SPREAD ACROSS ND...NORTHEAST

SD...AND SOUTHWEST MN. VISIBILITIES ARE DOWN TO LESS THAN A MILE AT

SOME REPORTING STATIONS. THIS SNOW IS FORMING ALONG THE 700MB FGEN

AREA AND 700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION.

THE LATEST MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO WEAKEN THE SNOW SYSTEM OVER

SOUTHERN WI COMPARED TO WHAT THEY WERE SHOWING A FEW RUNS AGO. THE

NAM SHOWS A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM DUE TO A LESS AMPLIFIED 500MB

SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAN THE ECMWF AND GFS. WENT WITH A BLEND BETWEEN

THE NAM AND GFS/ECMWF FOR THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP...WHICH DELAYS

STARTING THE SNOW IN MKE UNTIL BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM...WITH THE

MAJORITY OF THE SNOW FALLING AT MKE BETWEEN 3AM AND 9AM.

WE ALSO ADJUSTED THE QPF AMOUNTS AND SNOW AMOUNTS DOWN JUST A LITTLE

TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A LESS-AMPLIFIED SOLUTION. 15:1 TO

17:1 SNOW RATIOS ARE STILL EXPECTED. STORM TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM

AROUND 6 INCHES IN FAR SW TO AROUND 3 INCHES AT MSN AND MKE...TO

LESS THAN AN INCH AT SHEBOYGAN. THERE WILL MOST LIKELY BE A PRETTY

WELL-DEFINED BAND OF SNOW ACROSS THE MIDWEST ALONG THE STRONGEST

700MB FGEN/WAA AND POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION. THE NORTHERN EDGE

OF THE BAND IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST

CWA...PRIMARILY LAFAYETTE/IOWA/GREEN COUNTIES...AND PARTS OF DANE.

LIGHTER AMOUNTS NORTHEAST OF THIS BAND WILL BE DUE TO THE GENERAL

SHORTWAVE FORCING...WEAKER FGEN/WAA...AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT.

1000-850MB WINDS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT FOR MUCH

OF THE EVENT. PART OF THE REASON FOR THE LIGHT WINDS...BESIDES THE

SLACKENED SYNOPTIC PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN EXITING HIGH PRES AND

ENTERING LOW PRES...IS THE PRESENCE OF A MESO VORTEX OVER THE

SOUTHERN PART OF LAKE MICHIGAN. RIGHT NOW VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS

SOME CIRCULATION OVER THE SE QUADRANT OF THE SOUTH HALF OF THE LAKE.

LOCAL MESOSCALE WRF MODELS AND NAM...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE GFS

AND ECMWF...SHOW THIS FEATURE DRIFTING WESTWARD OVERNIGHT...BRINGING

EASTERLY 1000-850MB FLOW AROUND 10KT TO SE WI AT 12Z SAT. MODELS

ALSO SHOW AREA OF 1000-850MB CONVERGENCE PRIMARILY FROM MKE COUNTY

AND SOUTH. WINDS BACK NE BY 18Z AND DUE NORTH BY 00Z SUN. THIS

FEATURE FAVORS MKE/RAC/ENW COUNTIES FOR LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW

PRIMARILY LATER SAT MORNING TO SAT AFTERNOON. LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHART

SHOWS SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. WITH THE COMBINATION OF

SYSTEM SNOW...A TOTAL OF 3 TO 4 INCHES ALONG THE LAKESHORE FROM

MILWAUKEE COUNTY AND SOUTH IS EXPECTED.

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tuanis

tuanis

Posted
Posted

Newest run a bit stronger with the band, heaviest south and west of the city, but not a bad hit.

And still plenty to come looking upstream into WI, MN, heck even up towards Fargo that'll translate to some lighter snows throughout the day tomorrow. We're fine. Let's enjoy the first (light) snowfall of the year and be glad it'll be a nice fluffy one, not the sloppy, drippy cement that normally falls in early December.

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mnchaser

mnchaser

Posted
Posted

I love the fact I work nights now....Drinking some Summit beer(MN proud) watching the snow accumulate :snowman:

About an inch here now..and snowfall rates have really intensified in the last 20 minutes.

About 15 minutes ago, you can see the remnants of our Nov 12th storm...See we really don't have too much more snow then anybody else on this board...Unless you go north of me.

post-193-0-37677200-1291403297.jpg

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A-L-E-K

A-L-E-K

Posted
Posted

And still plenty to come looking upstream into WI, MN, heck even up towards Fargo that'll translate to some lighter snows throughout the day tomorrow. We're fine. Let's enjoy the first (light) snowfall of the year and be glad it'll be a nice fluffy one, not the sloppy, drippy cement that normally falls in early December.

not having to worry about p-type is a nice early december treat.

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted

That has been one of the best things I have liked about the system is no potential slop issues.

Yes that is nice.

I'm looking for event start time around 6z here with a peak around the 10-14z timeframe. Probably similar out your way or maybe like an hour or two later.

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prinsburg_wx

prinsburg_wx

Posted
Posted

Wow, that's crazy your ditches are filled already..We better hope the next storm after this current one doesn't pack much wind. Definitely the making for a nice blizzard.

well i live out in the country and most of that was from the storm a few nights ago that had the wind with it...closing in around 3" on current storm.

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Chicago Storm

Chicago Storm

Posted
Posted

ORD:

12z....

ECMWF: 0.43"

GFS: 0.30"

NAM: 0.18"

GGEM: About 0.25"

LAF:

12z...

ECMWF: 0.34"

GFS: 0.25"

NAM: 0.25"

GGEM: About 0.25"

MSN:

12z....

ECMWF: 0.36"

GFS: 0.24"

NAM: 0.20"

GGEM: About 0.25"

MSP:

12z...

ECMWF: 0.51"

GFS: 0.37"

NAM: 0.40"

GGEM: About 0.50"

LSE:

12z...

ECMWF: 0.48"

GFS: 0.34"

NAM: 0.38"

GGEM: 0.25-0.50"

MKE:

12z...

ECMWF: 0.17"

GFS: 0.21"

NAM: 0.08"

GGEM: 0.10-0.25"

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baroclinic_instability

baroclinic_instability

Posted
Posted

Upper level Frontogenesis band aloft over southern MN is beginning to dominate over lower level frontogenesis hence the farther N track we discussed way early in the thread. American model fail. Kudos to NWS Chanhassen for their good placement of the warning as well as the persistent slightly farther N track of the UK CMC Euro combo for the past 3 days.

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prinsburg_wx

prinsburg_wx

Posted
Posted

That looks like the edge of the world - either the visibility is lower than it seems or you're pretty isolated up there. It must be a real wall of white during a big snowfall.

vsb been 1/4 to 1/2 mile since it started plus the quality of the phone cam is crap...yeah you get a few inches of snow and wind out here then you do feel isolated but i love it

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