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12/3-12/6 MW/GL snow event?


Thundersnow12

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000FXUS63 KMKX 031010 AAAAFDMKXAREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATEDNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI410 AM CST FRI DEC 3 2010TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.FORECAST FOCUS SQUARELY ON UPCOMING SNOW EVENT. WILL BE ISSUING AWINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL BUT THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES FROM 00ZSATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON MOISTURECOMING INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH INITIAL ISENTROPIC LIFTFARTHER BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. DRY LOWER LEVELS/WITH CURRENT DEWPOINTS CLOSER TO TREND IN MAV MOS GUIDANCE/ WILL THUS BE SLOWER TOSATURATE WITH CROSS SECTIONS INDICATING STEADY SNOW AFTERSATURATION BEGINNING BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z SATURDAY IN THE WEST...ANDAFTER 06Z IN THE EAST WHICH ALSO LIMITS QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS.WILL BE A PROLONGED LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW EVENT...WITH SLOPEDFRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND MID TO UPPER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE BRINGINGHIGHER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 00Z AND 18Z SATURDAY...THENTAPERING OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. NAM 12 STILL INDICATINGDEVELOPMENT OF A MESO LOW OVER SRN LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH MAY ENHANCESNOW AMOUNTS ALONG THE LAKE FROM MILWAUKEE SOUTH. BUFKIT SOUNDINGSSHOW DELTA T/S AROUND 16C AND INVERSION HEIGHTS UP TO 7 TO 8K FT SOLAKE ENHANCEMENT A GOOD POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY FROM MILWAUKEESOUTH SO ADDED THESE COUNTIES TO THE ADVISORY.STORM TOTAL SNOW WITH BLENDED QPF AMOUNTS AND SNOW/WATER RATIOS OF14:1 TO 19:1 DURING THE PERIOD BEGINNING AFTER 21Z TODAY IN THE FARWEST AND ENDING AT 06Z SUNDAY IN THE EAST BRINGS 5 TO 6 INCH AMOUNTSALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF A DELLS TO DELAVAN LINE...3 TO 5 INCHES FROMGREEN LAKE TO MEQUON AND SOUTHWEST...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES ELSEWHEREOVER THE 36 HOUR PERIOD.CONSENSUS BLEND OF TEMPERATURES REASONABLE WITH LITTLE DIURNAL SWINGFROM HIGHS TODAY TO LOWS TONIGHT.
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1/4 of a mile visibility in Windom,MN as of 9:33 AM..nice band setup over them..but looks fairly short lived though..Will be interesting to see what happens as this advances east, 12z NAM and GFS are targeting my area with some pretty appreciable liquid amounts of .50+, that comes out to roughly 7+ inches with these nice ratios up here. Also with the latest HRRR coming into more agreement with those two it could be quite the storm here.

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1/4 of a mile visibility in Windom,MN as of 9:33 AM..nice band setup over them..but looks fairly short lived though..Will be interesting to see what happens as this advances east, 12z NAM and GFS are targeting my area with some pretty appreciable liquid amounts of .50+, that comes out to roughly 7+ inches with these nice ratios up here. Also with the latest HRRR coming into more agreement with those two it could be quite the storm here.

Another direct hit for Mankato. Congrats! I used to live in MSP and remember Mankato often being in the sweet spot for clippers (hybrid clipper in this case...hell this isn't even really a hybrid clipper).

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Another direct hit for Mankato. Congrats! I used to live in MSP and remember Mankato often being in the sweet spot for clippers (hybrid clipper in this case...hell this isn't even really a hybrid clipper).

It's been quite the town to grow up in, The town is often a hot spot year after year for some crazy severe weather too...The tornado in my avatar is the first one I caught back on 8-24-2006.. Multi-Vortex F3 that tracked a mere 10 miles north of Mankato.. and 2010 was no different. But I agree with you, clippers generally like to follow that MN River Valley time after time. River effect :whistle: haha? But like you said, it's really not even a clipper at all..It's been one weird year like that.

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2113

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1013 AM CST FRI DEC 03 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN AND NCNTRL/NERN IA

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 031613Z - 032015Z

INITIAL BAND OF 700-500 MB FRONTOGENESIS WAS LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR

THE NARROW CORRIDOR OF SNOW PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS SRN MN AND NRN IA

LATE THIS MORNING. 12Z NAM...09Z SREF AND 14Z 3KM WRF-HRRR SUGGEST

THAT ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE 285-290K LAYER WILL INCREASE

SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER 21Z AS A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE MOVES SEWD TOWARD

THE REGION. AT THAT TIME...FRONTOGENESIS OVER A DEEPER LAYER WILL

BECOME COINCIDENT WITH A WEAKLY NEGATIVE EPV ZONE ATOP AND THE BANDS

OF SNOW WILL NARROW AND INTENSIFY. BY THAT TIME...THE COLUMN WILL

HAVE BECOME MORE SATURATED AND ABOUT A 100 MB DEEP LAYER OF FAVORED

DENDRITIC ZONE SHOULD HAVE EVOLVED. GIVEN ABOUT 12:1 SNOW

RATIOS...ONE INCH PER HOUR SNOW RATES WILL EASILY BE REACHED...BUT

OVER A NARROW ZONE. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS CORRIDOR MAY

BE SLIGHTLY FARTHER SW THAN EARLIER EXPECTED. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES

WILL BE IN AN AREA ROUGHLY 60-80 MILES WIDE CENTERED FROM JUST NW OF

REDWOOD FALLS MN TO 40NM W OF ROCHESTER MN TO 35NM NE OF WATERLOO IA

THROUGH MID-EVENING.

..RACY.. 12/03/2010

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IND's call looks good. I see no reason to change my preliminary call...so lock it in, final call 2-4" for LAF.

I'm gonna go with 3-5". The NAM seems to have a slightly deeper DGZ zone/colocated lift than before especially around 12z Saturday which could lead to some bursts of moderate snow and quicker accumulations. Now if we could just get it to show more qpf. But the Euro is remaining consistent in the .3 to .4 range which is encouraging.

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