hawkeye_wx Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 The e/ne extent of the best snow has been a hot topic in here, but for the last two days the sw edge of the snow band in Iowa has hardly moved on the models. I'm expecting an inch, maybe 2 here in Cedar Rapids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Well, this is not going to do much in my backyard and that is all that matters. It is on to the lake effect Sunday into early next week for me. Hopefully the Chicago, Madison, and Lafayette areas can get into some advisory snows and MSP/LSE/DBQ high end advisory/warning snows. Good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 oz run... sorry alek Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 3, 2010 Author Share Posted December 3, 2010 oz run... sorry alek well that would suck.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 oz run... sorry alek Meh, pretty much in line with my current 1-2" call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Meh, pretty much in line with my current 1-2" call. cory's running a 6z now... which will extend into Monday some for LE areas that are expected to get a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Just east of the main band in MN: KOVL 031513Z AUTO 13010KT 10SM VCTS BKN035 BKN041 M09/M11 A3015 RMK AO2 Could be an ASOS error, but the NAM did have a low stability elevated layer on its forecast soundings yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 3, 2010 Author Share Posted December 3, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 moderate snow falling here now...expecting 5-7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 000FXUS63 KMKX 031010 AAAAFDMKXAREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATEDNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI410 AM CST FRI DEC 3 2010TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.FORECAST FOCUS SQUARELY ON UPCOMING SNOW EVENT. WILL BE ISSUING AWINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL BUT THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES FROM 00ZSATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON MOISTURECOMING INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH INITIAL ISENTROPIC LIFTFARTHER BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. DRY LOWER LEVELS/WITH CURRENT DEWPOINTS CLOSER TO TREND IN MAV MOS GUIDANCE/ WILL THUS BE SLOWER TOSATURATE WITH CROSS SECTIONS INDICATING STEADY SNOW AFTERSATURATION BEGINNING BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z SATURDAY IN THE WEST...ANDAFTER 06Z IN THE EAST WHICH ALSO LIMITS QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS.WILL BE A PROLONGED LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW EVENT...WITH SLOPEDFRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND MID TO UPPER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE BRINGINGHIGHER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 00Z AND 18Z SATURDAY...THENTAPERING OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. NAM 12 STILL INDICATINGDEVELOPMENT OF A MESO LOW OVER SRN LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH MAY ENHANCESNOW AMOUNTS ALONG THE LAKE FROM MILWAUKEE SOUTH. BUFKIT SOUNDINGSSHOW DELTA T/S AROUND 16C AND INVERSION HEIGHTS UP TO 7 TO 8K FT SOLAKE ENHANCEMENT A GOOD POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY FROM MILWAUKEESOUTH SO ADDED THESE COUNTIES TO THE ADVISORY.STORM TOTAL SNOW WITH BLENDED QPF AMOUNTS AND SNOW/WATER RATIOS OF14:1 TO 19:1 DURING THE PERIOD BEGINNING AFTER 21Z TODAY IN THE FARWEST AND ENDING AT 06Z SUNDAY IN THE EAST BRINGS 5 TO 6 INCH AMOUNTSALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF A DELLS TO DELAVAN LINE...3 TO 5 INCHES FROMGREEN LAKE TO MEQUON AND SOUTHWEST...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES ELSEWHEREOVER THE 36 HOUR PERIOD.CONSENSUS BLEND OF TEMPERATURES REASONABLE WITH LITTLE DIURNAL SWINGFROM HIGHS TODAY TO LOWS TONIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaser Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 1/4 of a mile visibility in Windom,MN as of 9:33 AM..nice band setup over them..but looks fairly short lived though..Will be interesting to see what happens as this advances east, 12z NAM and GFS are targeting my area with some pretty appreciable liquid amounts of .50+, that comes out to roughly 7+ inches with these nice ratios up here. Also with the latest HRRR coming into more agreement with those two it could be quite the storm here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 What is your location prinsburg? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 What is your location prinsburg? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Good to see you have snow falling. Is it just me or does the hrrr seem to move the precip shield east quicker than the NAM or GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 1/4 of a mile visibility in Windom,MN as of 9:33 AM..nice band setup over them..but looks fairly short lived though..Will be interesting to see what happens as this advances east, 12z NAM and GFS are targeting my area with some pretty appreciable liquid amounts of .50+, that comes out to roughly 7+ inches with these nice ratios up here. Also with the latest HRRR coming into more agreement with those two it could be quite the storm here. Another direct hit for Mankato. Congrats! I used to live in MSP and remember Mankato often being in the sweet spot for clippers (hybrid clipper in this case...hell this isn't even really a hybrid clipper). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaser Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Another direct hit for Mankato. Congrats! I used to live in MSP and remember Mankato often being in the sweet spot for clippers (hybrid clipper in this case...hell this isn't even really a hybrid clipper). It's been quite the town to grow up in, The town is often a hot spot year after year for some crazy severe weather too...The tornado in my avatar is the first one I caught back on 8-24-2006.. Multi-Vortex F3 that tracked a mere 10 miles north of Mankato.. and 2010 was no different. But I agree with you, clippers generally like to follow that MN River Valley time after time. River effect haha? But like you said, it's really not even a clipper at all..It's been one weird year like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 3, 2010 Author Share Posted December 3, 2010 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2113 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1013 AM CST FRI DEC 03 2010 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN AND NCNTRL/NERN IA CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 031613Z - 032015Z INITIAL BAND OF 700-500 MB FRONTOGENESIS WAS LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE NARROW CORRIDOR OF SNOW PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS SRN MN AND NRN IA LATE THIS MORNING. 12Z NAM...09Z SREF AND 14Z 3KM WRF-HRRR SUGGEST THAT ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE 285-290K LAYER WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER 21Z AS A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE MOVES SEWD TOWARD THE REGION. AT THAT TIME...FRONTOGENESIS OVER A DEEPER LAYER WILL BECOME COINCIDENT WITH A WEAKLY NEGATIVE EPV ZONE ATOP AND THE BANDS OF SNOW WILL NARROW AND INTENSIFY. BY THAT TIME...THE COLUMN WILL HAVE BECOME MORE SATURATED AND ABOUT A 100 MB DEEP LAYER OF FAVORED DENDRITIC ZONE SHOULD HAVE EVOLVED. GIVEN ABOUT 12:1 SNOW RATIOS...ONE INCH PER HOUR SNOW RATES WILL EASILY BE REACHED...BUT OVER A NARROW ZONE. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS CORRIDOR MAY BE SLIGHTLY FARTHER SW THAN EARLIER EXPECTED. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES WILL BE IN AN AREA ROUGHLY 60-80 MILES WIDE CENTERED FROM JUST NW OF REDWOOD FALLS MN TO 40NM W OF ROCHESTER MN TO 35NM NE OF WATERLOO IA THROUGH MID-EVENING. ..RACY.. 12/03/2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 I'm surprised to see the snowband this well-developed this early. Weak echoes are practically almost in WI. It'll also be interesting to see the ratios when this really starts accumulating in places. Temps are in the teens almost everywhere so that would equal very high ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 6z run... out to 12z Monday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 6z run... out to 12z Monday! Very nice! Definitely strong enough flow through the boundary layer to get a lake effect band as far south and east as Kos County (Warsaw/Leesburg). SBN/BEH should get hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 6z run... out to 12z Monday! LES could be your friend. Maybe mine too with a small shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Very nice! Definitely strong enough flow through the boundary layer to get a lake effect band as far south and east as Kos County (Warsaw/Leesburg). SBN/BEH should get hammered. I've seen it happen before in Kos co. Should be a fun weekend!! Plus, close enough to hvy stuff to go play anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 LES could be your friend. Maybe mine too with a small shift. I never let up on hope in these situations. I always try to count on a surprise and unexpected treats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadTown Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 i am thinkin this is headed farther south than expected...Madison wi, 2" what do you think badger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 whats up with all the radars, i check the level 3 data feed and most radars are up and running but going to the noaa pages to look at regional radar or wunderground almost all of them are down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadTown Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 software update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 IND's call looks good. I see no reason to change my preliminary call...so lock it in, final call 2-4" for LAF. I'm gonna go with 3-5". The NAM seems to have a slightly deeper DGZ zone/colocated lift than before especially around 12z Saturday which could lead to some bursts of moderate snow and quicker accumulations. Now if we could just get it to show more qpf. But the Euro is remaining consistent in the .3 to .4 range which is encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 KLAF omega/snow growth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Looks like to me that the NAM is already off. I just checked the radar on my weatherbug and it has moderate snow falling all the way to near MSP (bit to the SW) already. I checked the 12z NAM at hour 6 and it has the moderate snow not even in Minnesota yet, and farther south. Anyone else see this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Most all area radars up and running on GRL3 . Two appear delayed. Storm spotter in Palo Alto County . Iowa reports 3 inches at 16:29 Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.