KeenerWx Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 FWIW, LOT goes with 3-5" area wide, most being in Northern Illinois. IWX issues Lake Effect Snow Watch for LaPorte, St. Joseph, Berrien Counties for up to/exceeding 8" from the period Sat Night-Mon. It seems Lake Effect could potentially go beyond that by a significant time period. I'm thinking a chase might be up my sleeves. Will diagnose this later, may post thoughts, and then take affirmative action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 This LES set-up looks EPIC. Could spread accumulating snow a good ways inland as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 ORD: 0z.... ECMWF: 0.40" GFS: 0.29" NAM: 0.28" GGEM: 0.25-0.50" LAF: 0z... ECMWF: 0.42" GFS: 0.25" NAM: 0.24" GGEM: 0.10-0.25" MSN: 0z.... ECMWF: 0.37" GFS: 0.22" NAM: 0.26" GGEM: 0.25-0.50" MSP: 0z... ECMWF: 0.40" GFS: 0.35" NAM: 0.40" GGEM: 0.50-0.75" LSE: 0z... ECMWF: 0.45" GFS: 0.32" NAM: 0.35" GGEM: About 0.50" MKE: 0z... ECMWF: 0.29" GFS: 0.19" NAM: 0.23" GGEM: 0.25-0.50" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 This feels more like a january storm than a early december storm for us in southeast minnesota. It is 9 degrees here this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaser Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 This feels more like a january storm than a early december storm for us in southeast minnesota. It is 9 degrees here this morning I noticed this walking out of work this morning, Sitting at about 10 degrees here in Mankato! Looking over the HRRR, I can't help but notice that model is completely lost right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 I think I'm glad I stuck with general 4-6" amounts in the max band definitely could be some isolated 7" amounts but I'd be surprised to see more than that... caveat being if a pivot point develops and rains down snow on one particular area for an extended period of time not foreseen. Should be a wide wide area covered by a minimum of 2-4" which is a nice little warm up to the season to come. I'm noticing the concern about the atmosphere being saturated was in a few AFD's and that was one thing I mentioned last night that would have to be watched in terms of how much snow could materialize and this cold, dry airmass will take some time to moisten up so hopefully for a lot of us not much QPF will be burned for that. Sorry for the run on sentences, its late for me. Well... off to bed. I think once the pattern changes again and realigns across the Northern Hemisphere in about 10 days we'll see a big storm or two and those should be fun to watch for a lot of us...and now we'll have a bit of snow pack to help baroclinicity and that can only help whoever gets the big snows from those systems to come. Good luck everyone!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 From IND's AFD WILL KEEP THE SPS GOING BUT GIVE IT ONE MORE MODEL RUN AND HOPE FOR MORE CONSISTANCY BEFORE LIKELY ISSUING A SNOW ADVISORY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Yes I was just looking at that as well. What is your prediction for totals in mankato? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Here's the map from IND in regards to snow amounts.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 IND's call looks good. I see no reason to change my preliminary call...so lock it in, final call 2-4" for LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 IND's call looks good. I see no reason to change my preliminary call...so lock it in, final call 2-4" for LAF. So, I went out and purchased my replacement shovel yesterday.. Going to turn an hour job into a 10 minute job.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 So, I went out and purchased my replacement shovel yesterday.. Going to turn an hour job into a 10 minute job.. Crap, never mind...storm cancel. Mottster bought a snow thrower. j/k hopefully you get a lot of use out of that thing this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Crap, never mind...storm cancel. Mottster bought a snow thrower. j/k hopefully you get a lot of use out of that thing this winter. I figured since you said lock it in, that it was safe to post.. Trust me I had to convince myself that it was ok to post, and that it wouldn't jinx us.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 So, I went out and purchased my replacement shovel yesterday.. Going to turn an hour job into a 10 minute job.. That will be nice. Many people in my neighborhood had similar sized ones. I came from the country where I had a big John Deere with electric start. Overkill and it does draw stares from the folks in the burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaser Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 So, I went out and purchased my replacement shovel yesterday.. Going to turn an hour job into a 10 minute job.. Bahhh I got myself one of these for the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 HPC riding euro and canadian for precip totals today and tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 I am going to lock it in with 2-3" for OKK with 4-5" sweet spots around the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 I should have stuck with 1/3" EDIT: seriously though 1-2" sounds right for Chicago proper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 I should have stuck with 1/3" EDIT: seriously though 1-2" sounds right for Chicago proper. That's gonna bust yo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaser Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 My current thinking anywhere around the Willmar area(A bit west of KMSP) is going to take the cake with this is one. the most recent HRRR run also looks a lot more realistic, with snow rapidly expanding in Southern MN and Central MN around 19z., Let's break the 20" season total barely into December! Lots of Virga out there right now, but decent snow from some of the surface obs in SW MN, Slayton, MN reporting .50 visibility...decent for no wind whatsoever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 That's gonna bust yo. high or low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 high or low? Low. I like 2-4" with some upside along the lakefront with the meso low/les possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Low. I like 2-4" with some upside along the lakefront with the meso low/les possibility. Hi-res seem to be backing off chances of the meso low coming ashore on the west coast of the lake, unless you count far southeast cook along the lake indiana border. Given timing of the favorable wind conditions before the shift, it's just not going to be a factor. I'd issue a virga advisory for 1-2" eaten by dry air and expect 1-2 more to accumulate, with more west into Dupage and out toward RFD, obv. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Hi-res seem to be backing off chances of the meso low coming ashore on the west coast of the lake, unless you count far southeast cook along the lake indiana border. Given timing of the favorable wind conditions before the shift, it's just not going to be a factor. I'd issue a virga advisory for 1-2" eaten by dry air and expect 1-2 more to accumulate. Well we'll see. 12z NAM says you FTW. And interestingly, it sort of rejuvenates the low at 30 hours...good hit for those to my south/southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Well we'll see. 12z NAM says you FTW. And interestingly, it sort of rejuvenates the low at 30 hours...good hit for those to my south/southwest. The last SREF run pretty much was a .5-1.5 kind of thing as well. Since the drying trend started yesterday the eastern flank has been destroyed. No biggy, i didn't think i'd see accumulating snow until mid-Dec at earliest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 The last SREF run pretty much was a .5-1.5 kind of thing as well. Since the drying trend started yesterday the eastern flank has been destroyed. No biggy, i didn't think i'd see accumulating snow until mid-Dec at earliest. Hmm, I must be missing something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Hmm, I must be missing something. no, you're right i was looking at 12 hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 MKE still seems to be thinking 3-5" for you and me Bow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 MnChaser- When you wear her out send her over here... I've got see tree stumps to pull out. Still think 3-6 inches here (NWS)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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