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12/3-12/6 MW/GL snow event?


Thundersnow12

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FWIW, LOT goes with 3-5" area wide, most being in Northern Illinois.

IWX issues Lake Effect Snow Watch for LaPorte, St. Joseph, Berrien Counties for up to/exceeding 8" from the period Sat Night-Mon. It seems Lake Effect could potentially go beyond that by a significant time period. I'm thinking a chase might be up my sleeves. Will diagnose this later, may post thoughts, and then take affirmative action. thumbsupsmileyanim.gif

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ORD:

0z....

ECMWF: 0.40"

GFS: 0.29"

NAM: 0.28"

GGEM: 0.25-0.50"

LAF:

0z...

ECMWF: 0.42"

GFS: 0.25"

NAM: 0.24"

GGEM: 0.10-0.25"

MSN:

0z....

ECMWF: 0.37"

GFS: 0.22"

NAM: 0.26"

GGEM: 0.25-0.50"

MSP:

0z...

ECMWF: 0.40"

GFS: 0.35"

NAM: 0.40"

GGEM: 0.50-0.75"

LSE:

0z...

ECMWF: 0.45"

GFS: 0.32"

NAM: 0.35"

GGEM: About 0.50"

MKE:

0z...

ECMWF: 0.29"

GFS: 0.19"

NAM: 0.23"

GGEM: 0.25-0.50"

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This feels more like a january storm than a early december storm for us in southeast minnesota. It is 9 degrees here this morning

I noticed this walking out of work this morning, Sitting at about 10 degrees here in Mankato!:snowman:

Looking over the HRRR, I can't help but notice that model is completely lost right now.

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I think I'm glad I stuck with general 4-6" amounts in the max band definitely could be some isolated 7" amounts but I'd be surprised to see more than that... caveat being if a pivot point develops and rains down snow on one particular area for an extended period of time not foreseen. Should be a wide wide area covered by a minimum of 2-4" which is a nice little warm up to the season to come. I'm noticing the concern about the atmosphere being saturated was in a few AFD's and that was one thing I mentioned last night that would have to be watched in terms of how much snow could materialize and this cold, dry airmass will take some time to moisten up so hopefully for a lot of us not much QPF will be burned for that. Sorry for the run on sentences, its late for me. Well... off to bed. I think once the pattern changes again and realigns across the Northern Hemisphere in about 10 days we'll see a big storm or two and those should be fun to watch for a lot of us...and now we'll have a bit of snow pack to help baroclinicity and that can only help whoever gets the big snows from those systems to come.

Good luck everyone!!!!

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Crap, never mind...storm cancel. Mottster bought a snow thrower.

j/k tongue.gif hopefully you get a lot of use out of that thing this winter. thumbsupsmileyanim.gif

I figured since you said lock it in, that it was safe to post..

Trust me I had to convince myself that it was ok to post, and that it wouldn't jinx us.. :lol:

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So, I went out and purchased my replacement shovel yesterday..

3b5a00ee-a052-47dc-9432-831146e48bde_300.jpg

Going to turn an hour job into a 10 minute job.. :thumbsup:

That will be nice. Many people in my neighborhood had similar sized ones. I came from the country where I had a big John Deere with electric start. Overkill and it does draw stares from the folks in the burbs.

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My current thinking anywhere around the Willmar area(A bit west of KMSP) is going to take the cake with this is one. the most recent HRRR run also looks a lot more realistic, with snow rapidly expanding in Southern MN and Central MN around 19z., Let's break the 20" season total barely into December! :weight_lift:

Lots of Virga out there right now, but decent snow from some of the surface obs in SW MN, Slayton, MN reporting .50 visibility...decent for no wind whatsoever.

post-193-0-03129700-1291384805.png

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Low. I like 2-4" with some upside along the lakefront with the meso low/les possibility.

Hi-res seem to be backing off chances of the meso low coming ashore on the west coast of the lake, unless you count far southeast cook along the lake indiana border. Given timing of the favorable wind conditions before the shift, it's just not going to be a factor.

I'd issue a virga advisory for 1-2" eaten by dry air and expect 1-2 more to accumulate, with more west into Dupage and out toward RFD, obv. :snowman:

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Hi-res seem to be backing off chances of the meso low coming ashore on the west coast of the lake, unless you count far southeast cook along the lake indiana border. Given timing of the favorable wind conditions before the shift, it's just not going to be a factor.

I'd issue a virga advisory for 1-2" eaten by dry air and expect 1-2 more to accumulate. :snowman:

Well we'll see. 12z NAM says you FTW. And interestingly, it sort of rejuvenates the low at 30 hours...good hit for those to my south/southwest. arrowheadsmiley.png

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Well we'll see. 12z NAM says you FTW. And interestingly, it sort of rejuvenates the low at 30 hours...good hit for those to my south/southwest. arrowheadsmiley.png

The last SREF run pretty much was a .5-1.5 kind of thing as well. Since the drying trend started yesterday the eastern flank has been destroyed. No biggy, i didn't think i'd see accumulating snow until mid-Dec at earliest.

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