Moneyman Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Interesting. RGEM hammers my area, it can't be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 JB say so? How ya been man? Getting pumped for the 1st event and broken plows? all is well. Glad I found my home ..and you Wisconsin guys know these things trend north as it goes. Although rare to get a clipper type as the first for the season so may not work this time. What's Aleking's call?.... a trace? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 3, 2010 Author Share Posted December 3, 2010 Cyclone, enjoy, this thing is gonna be a nice event for you. S trend ftw. Batavia/Streamwood special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Cyclone, enjoy, this thing is gonna be a nice event for you. S trend ftw. RGEM doesn't look too bad at all for you and Bow. Ratios will be higher up that way, so even with lesser QPF you could still fluff up some decent snow. A shift back north with the 12z is certainly not out of the question either. I'm not sure how well the system was sampled by the 00z runs tonight, but I'm guessing it was sampled pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 all is well. Glad I found my home ..and you Wisconsin guys know these things trend north as it goes. Although rare to get a clipper type as the first for the season so may not work this time. What's Aleking's call?.... a trace? Good to hear all is well and you found us... 1/3" was first call... so he left it open ended CT Blizz style for a third of an inch or 1-3" Thinks his last call is 2-5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 all is well. Glad I found my home ..and you Wisconsin guys know these things trend north as it goes. Although rare to get a clipper type as the first for the season so may not work this time. What's Aleking's call?.... a trace? It was a 1/3" initially, but I think he's since gone bullish and is calling for an advisory type event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 If the only thing that will save my area is lake effect snow, I'm in trouble then. We hardly get lake effect here, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 RGEM doesn't look too bad at all for you and Bow. Ratios will be higher up that way, so even with lesser QPF you could still fluff up some decent snow. A shift back north with the 12z is certainly not out of the question either. I'm not sure how well the system was sampled by the 00z runs tonight, but I'm guessing it was sampled pretty well. Looked interesting for sure.. I don't know much about that model though.. Takes all I can to look at the GFS and Euro without getting frustrated. I just firmly believe this is going to be good for you. Just give me an inch or two and I will be happy.. Don't want (yeah right lol) a bunch of heavy snow on the ice that just refroze over today on the lakes anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 If the only thing that will save my area is lake effect snow, I'm in trouble then. We hardly get lake effect here, Winnebago LES FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Sure seems weird to be tracking a clipper like this in early Dec. This seems like the type of system we'd usually be tracking in Jan or Feb. I don't think I can remember ever starting off the season with a NW flow clipper system lol. Makes you wonder what other surprises will be in store for later in the winter. Especially once SW flow reestablishes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Meh, maybe. GGEM should be out shortly, hopefully it will be a little better. Why even get myself into this. We all know I'll be dryslotted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 3, 2010 Author Share Posted December 3, 2010 http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lot/?n=webbriefing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Now that we're getting into go time almost it makes waiting for the Euro even harder.. Glad the wife is understanding come winter time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 That does suck, If us up here don't get snow I'd like the LAF group to cash in, they deserve it. Appreciate the sentiment Stebo, but I'm not sure we deserve snow more than anyone else in the Midwest. That being said, any snow is welcomed snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Not to be a debbie downer. but looking at the soundings for various cities, there is a dry layer about 850mb that goes all the way to -20c in some cases for Eastern IL and Western Indiana, while the winds are out of the east which is super dry while the precip shield is trying to press in. I just wanted to throw that out there since us folks down here have been burned like a forest fire with dry air advection under cutting the lift. in situations where the best lift is not right on top us we have had seen model QPF of .2 to .3 end up .05 to .1 and we end up getting hosed. on the nam it looks like there will be a large area to the East of the main band that the nam is simulating more QPF then may even fall as well as it is already becoming more dry. If I am off, I am sorry just throwing that out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Not to be a debbie downer. but looking at the soundings for various cities, there is a dry layer about 850mb that goes all the way to -20c in some cases for Eastern IL and Western Indiana, while the winds are out of the east which is super dry while the precip shield is trying to press in. I just wanted to throw that out there since us folks down here have been burned like a forest fire with dry air advection under cutting the lift. in situations where the best lift is not right on top us we have had seen model QPF of .2 to .3 end up .05 to .1 and we end up getting hosed. on the nam it looks like there will be a large area to the East of the main band that the nam is simulating more QPF then may even fall as well as it is already becoming more dry. If I am off, I am sorry just throwing that out there. That's a great point and another reason why I like my 1-2" at best call still.. I fight dry air hard here a lot in systems. And this is a perfect candidate for it I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Now that we're getting into go time almost it makes waiting for the Euro even harder.. Glad the wife is understanding come winter time. Do you have access to the high-res Euro the NWS AFD often mention? Or is it a different version of the Euro. The only Euro I see are the freebies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Not to be a debbie downer. but looking at the soundings for various cities, there is a dry layer about 850mb that goes all the way to -20c in some cases for Eastern IL and Western Indiana, while the winds are out of the east which is super dry while the precip shield is trying to press in. I just wanted to throw that out there since us folks down here have been burned like a forest fire with dry air advection under cutting the lift. in situations where the best lift is not right on top us we have had seen model QPF of .2 to .3 end up .05 to .1 and we end up getting hosed. on the nam it looks like there will be a large area to the East of the main band that the nam is simulating more QPF then may even fall as well as it is already becoming more dry. If I am off, I am sorry just throwing that out there. RH levels looks fine, down through 850 and beyond, looking at the LAF soundings. But I'm fairly certain that the models usually show a reduction in QPF in response to such as issues as dry air. Which again I think the NAM is alluding to when you look at the total QPF maps...not like there's boat loads of QPF to be found here anyway. But we'll see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Batavia/Streamwood special We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Do you have access to the high-res Euro the NWS AFD often mention? Or is it a different version of the Euro. The only Euro I see are the freebies. Storm Vista ones... Better than the freebies but they don't show all the levels and such.. RIP, Jack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Bow, you get AIM yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Bow, you get AIM yet? Not yet.. Americanwx has a chat room... Be fun to all hit that during storms and model runs? Leaves room for a lil OT fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Appreciate the sentiment Stebo, but I'm not sure we deserve snow more than anyone else in the Midwest. That being said, any snow is welcomed snow. I like your style. I admit I have had the mindset that I deserve snow since im in MI over someone to my south, but I think a big part of that is because its the first real snowstorm. Which doesnt make it right. No one "deserves" snow over anyone else. I probably average 10-15" more than you (whats LAF avg?), but that means in an "average" winter when its all said and done in April. Even if that pans out, there are expected to be some storms that hit to my south missing me completely. I think, again, that this one is just magnified because its the first one of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 RH levels looks fine, down through 850 and beyond, looking at the LAF soundings. But I'm fairly certain that the models usually show a reduction in QPF in response to such as issues as dry air. Which again I think the NAM is alluding to when you look at the total QPF maps...not like there's boat loads of QPF to be found here anyway. But we'll see... Yes, I'm almost certain that the models account for dry air as far as QPF. Now, if the airmass actually ends up being drier than the models predicted, then that might be when you run into problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 RH levels looks fine, down through 850 and beyond, looking at the LAF soundings. But I'm fairly certain that the models usually show a reduction in QPF in response to such as issues as dry air. Which again I think the NAM is alluding to when you look at the total QPF maps...not like there's boat loads of QPF to be found here anyway. But we'll see... Like I said I have no idea how much of an impact that will have, I am sure strong lift can overcome that. The Nams composite radar has precip falling into this layer at this point and it takes another 6-8 hours to saturate for snow. clearly the nam has a more SW track this time. That just looked like quite a bit of dry air that will need to be eaten away. If the dry air advection is not persistent during the storm then there would be little resistance. I am just saying dozens of times this factor is not played up enough during events like this. the GFS is not near as dry at the same time: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 I like your style. I admit I have had the mindset that I deserve snow since im in MI over someone to my south, but I think a big part of that is because its the first real snowstorm. Which doesnt make it right. No one "deserves" snow over anyone else. I probably average 10-15" more than you (whats LAF avg?), but that means in an "average" winter when its all said and done in April. Even if that pans out, there are expected to be some storms that hit to my south missing me completely. I think, again, that this one is just magnified because its the first one of the season. It's more like an 18" difference I believe, but yeah you guys in the vast majority of winters, are going to get tons more snow than we do down here. And that's just how it goes...climo is climo. Trust me I'll be a little jealous later this winter, could be a week from now, when it's 34º and rain here and you guys are shoveling. But hey it's a share the wealth type thing for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 First bands of precip breaking out across western and central South Dakota ATM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 System starting to show up on the latest HRRR runs. Looks like some pretty decent snowfall west of the Twin Cities late tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Don't fret guys, the NGM is spitting out widespread 0.5"+, and it usually has a dry bias. ...wait a minute... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 3, 2010 Author Share Posted December 3, 2010 talking to Gino...."system snows probably mainly in 2-4" range....i wouldn't rule out big amounts near the lake somewhere....wouldn't even be surprised if system + lake effect snow totals reached 10" somewhere in Lake IL, Cook or Lake IN" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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