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12/3-12/6 MW/GL snow event?


Thundersnow12

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Those maps (and the GGEM ones) are great. Thanks for posting them all the time. smile.gif

Agree!

Looks like GFS won't throw any surprises and will be a tad drier than 18z.. Good for, cyclone.. stupid High P. I'd still take a little less than the .30 the gfs gave and be happy. I just want it snowing while killing a xmas :( on saturday.

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Well, $.. Guess we hang our last gasp on the low heading for LM like MKE said.. I think I heard others talk about that, too in past winters.. I just don't think in this type of system that theory holds much weight.. Another one of those weenie sayings when the models don't look like we want ;)

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MKX

.UPDATE...A LOOK AT THE NEW NAM COMING IN THIS EVENING SHOWS A BIT

OF A SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE QPF/SNOW FIELD FOR THE FRIDAY

NIGHT/SATURDAY SNOW EVENT. IT ALSO SHOWS THE LAKE CONTRIBUTION NOT

HAVING ENOUGH TIME TO BRING ADDITIONAL ACCUMS TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE

NAM SHOWS WINDS BACKING QUICKLY TO THE NORTH THEN NORTHWEST...

KEEPING THE FORMING LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND MORE OFF-SHORE DURING THE

EVENT. THE FRONTOGENTIC FORCING...ESPECIALLY AT 600MB HAS SHIFTED

FARTHER SW. THESE AREN/T SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THAT WOULD HAVE A

NOTICEABLE IMPACT ON THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT. THESE FLUCTUATIONS

ARE NORMAL AND EXPECTED. WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE GFS AND THE

ECMWF TO COME IN BEFORE ANY REAL ADJUSTMENT CAN BE MADE WITH

CONFIDENCE. WE HAVE NOTICED THAT DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR...EARLY

WINTER... THESE SYSTEMS DO TEND TO GET PULLED CLOSER TO THE GREAT

LAKES THAN WHAT MODELS INITIALLY INDICATE...SO I/D BE HESITANT TO

MAKE CHANGES THAT WOULD BE OPPOSING THIS NOTABLE TREND...I.E. MOVE

THE SNOW BAND FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

IN SHORT...STEADY AS SHE GOES.

this is correct.:whistle:

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Well, $.. Guess we hang our last gasp on the low heading for LM like MKE said.. I think I heard others talk about that, too in past winters.. I just don't think in this type of system that theory holds much weight.. Another one of those weenie sayings when the models don't look like we want ;)

I'm interested in what MKX said as well. I thought that it applied more for other types of setups and earlier in the year.

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It can get flaky at 48 hours sometimes, but I like checking it in the 12-36 hour timeframe.

I just need a small trend north and then I'll at least get a couple inches and you guys in LAF would still be solid too :weight_lift: Oh well, I'm encouraged by the look of next week for some extended periods of light accum. that may add up.

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If the 00z runs end up being right I'll end up eating my words from earlier. Actually a bit surprised to see the shift south after what seemed like a slow trend north by the last few GEM/NAM runs. There could still be adjustments with the 12z runs.

Skilling's new graphics shown tonight were pretty sweet. He's always been on the cutting edge of showing new graphic animations on his weather segments.

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LAF doesn't even get more then .25 QPF in this run. It just kills the system as it heads east.

GFS hasn't been kind to us, but it's really about the exact same as the 12z run with respect to QPF...we barely sneak into the 0.25" shading. Eh, fits well with my thoughts of 2-4" for LAF...I'll take it if it happens.

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me

Can we kill that high please? Or at least pay it to go about 30-40 miles farther east or be weaker in general?

Think we're kinna SOL.. PV ready to drop down and the system backing in off the atlantic seem to box it in from moving much.. W/E only going to get minor shifts now and it is what it is. 1-2" for the city is till the call from me and I'll be happy with that. I can see the bust long before MKE will admit defeat and this is one of them I bet.

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