SEMIweather Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 NAM not looking to encouraging through 24 for out here I don't think... When do I think right though. I think it's going to end up pretty much the same...but hey I'm not sure I know what I'm talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 If there is a shift south just blame $man. lol he might get about .07 this run.. I wont be much better off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Well that NAM run was about as enjoyable as watching the Packers commit 18 penalties against the Bears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 If I was in the gun on this one in some places the 00z nam would have me unraveling like a girl being stood up on Prom Night. Ouch. Hopefully it is wrong. Or that is a blow to a lot of places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Nam is drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Might have to alert the Flora Highway department to be on the ready friday into the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 It looks like the energy is in a similar place but the precip shield is just weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Nam is drier. Thanks, $man Wonder if I even have enough precip to moisten the atmosphere. Heavy virga advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Figures. NAM would go drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Thanks, $man Filling in for his absence. Dusting at best still in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Filling in for his absence. Dusting at best still in play. Aleks one third of an inch back in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 lol @ 57 and the doughnut hole over LAF.. All In! Storm is pretty much over at 57 anyways tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Using the snow analogs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Hey guys, I saw five vehicles spun out in the median of U.S. 31 while driving down to Indpls. for a two day meeting Wednesday morning with just the smidgen of snow we had then. I can only imagine what my bus trip Saturday to Woodfield Mall and back that evening will be like. System snow going...LES coming back to Elkhart. At least I won't be driving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Nice lil speck of, 0" over me on that map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 NAM stops the big band from crossing the IL/IN border like the Bears going for it on 4th and goal at the one yard line... ...eh, C- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 lol @ 57 and the doughnut hole over LAF.. All In! Storm is pretty much over at 57 anyways tho. Let's see if anything else looks like this with the placement of the precip shield. Certainly raises some questions for our areas but I wonder if it's typical NAM games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 meh, 2-5 still looks good LOT wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Let's see if anything else looks like this with the placement of the precip shield. Certainly raises some questions for our areas but I wonder if it's typical NAM games. No reason for places like ORD or MKE to jump ship yet IMO. As for us, I like how the NAM carries the 0.25"+ line through central IL and now getting into central IN...albeit now just southwest of us. 8/10 times I'd like the position 24 hours out. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 6z NAM: .1-.25 QPF 12z NAM: .25-.5 QPF (right on the border) 18z NAM: .25-.5 QPF 0z NAM: .0-.1 QPF 6z GFS: .1-.25 QPF (.25 just south) 12z GFS: .0-.1 QPF 18z GFS: .18 QPF 0z GFS: ? Odd how the 12z and 18z NAM was really wet and then the 0z NAM came in drier. I'm gonna guess the GFS comes in with .1-.25 QPF again just like 2 of the other 3 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Let's see if anything else looks like this with the placement of the precip shield. Certainly raises some questions for our areas but I wonder if it's typical NAM games. I dunno.. I just keep watching the high that's coming over us now.. when it doesn't move out a little quicker the run sucks her mostly... moves a little quicker its decent.. This run rosie o'donnell high until to late. Just my simple way of seeing how the run plays out early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 moneyman is moneydry right now according to the 0z nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Ohio gets pretty much boned.. The NAM has to be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Looking at the reflectivity, NAM looks to have some sort of meso-low at hour 54 coming down Lake Michigan...hitting the Chicago lakefront and eventually NW/N Indiana. Even gets down here at hour 66. Obviously going to be a wait and see thing, but at least there's been a few models showing an interesting set up post synoptic snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Prob the MESO MKE was talking about for suckville just shifted south on this boner run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 late fri thru 12 z Sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 I like that jackpot right over me Stealing Streamwoodies thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 MKX .UPDATE...A LOOK AT THE NEW NAM COMING IN THIS EVENING SHOWS A BIT OF A SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE QPF/SNOW FIELD FOR THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY SNOW EVENT. IT ALSO SHOWS THE LAKE CONTRIBUTION NOT HAVING ENOUGH TIME TO BRING ADDITIONAL ACCUMS TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE NAM SHOWS WINDS BACKING QUICKLY TO THE NORTH THEN NORTHWEST... KEEPING THE FORMING LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND MORE OFF-SHORE DURING THE EVENT. THE FRONTOGENTIC FORCING...ESPECIALLY AT 600MB HAS SHIFTED FARTHER SW. THESE AREN/T SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THAT WOULD HAVE A NOTICEABLE IMPACT ON THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT. THESE FLUCTUATIONS ARE NORMAL AND EXPECTED. WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE GFS AND THE ECMWF TO COME IN BEFORE ANY REAL ADJUSTMENT CAN BE MADE WITH CONFIDENCE. WE HAVE NOTICED THAT DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR...EARLY WINTER... THESE SYSTEMS DO TEND TO GET PULLED CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES THAN WHAT MODELS INITIALLY INDICATE...SO I/D BE HESITANT TO MAKE CHANGES THAT WOULD BE OPPOSING THIS NOTABLE TREND...I.E. MOVE THE SNOW BAND FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. IN SHORT...STEADY AS SHE GOES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 3, 2010 Author Share Posted December 3, 2010 late fri thru 12 z Sun always enjoy seeing these but where did you get those again? were very helpful for the LE event in early january! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 always enjoy seeing these but where did you get those again? were very helpful for the LE event in early january! Met Tech. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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