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12/3-12/6 MW/GL snow event?


Thundersnow12

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Hey guys, I saw five vehicles spun out in the median of U.S. 31 while driving down to Indpls. for a two day meeting Wednesday morning with just the smidgen of snow we had then. I can only imagine what my bus trip Saturday to Woodfield Mall and back that evening will be like. System snow going...LES coming back to Elkhart. At least I won't be driving.

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lol @ 57 and the doughnut hole over LAF.. All In! Storm is pretty much over at 57 anyways tho.

Let's see if anything else looks like this with the placement of the precip shield. Certainly raises some questions for our areas but I wonder if it's typical NAM games.

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Let's see if anything else looks like this with the placement of the precip shield. Certainly raises some questions for our areas but I wonder if it's typical NAM games.

No reason for places like ORD or MKE to jump ship yet IMO.

As for us, I like how the NAM carries the 0.25"+ line through central IL and now getting into central IN...albeit now just southwest of us. 8/10 times I'd like the position 24 hours out. We'll see.

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6z NAM: .1-.25 QPF

12z NAM: .25-.5 QPF (right on the border)

18z NAM: .25-.5 QPF

0z NAM: .0-.1 QPF

6z GFS: .1-.25 QPF (.25 just south)

12z GFS: .0-.1 QPF

18z GFS: .18 QPF

0z GFS: ?

Odd how the 12z and 18z NAM was really wet and then the 0z NAM came in drier.

I'm gonna guess the GFS comes in with .1-.25 QPF again just like 2 of the other 3 runs.

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Let's see if anything else looks like this with the placement of the precip shield. Certainly raises some questions for our areas but I wonder if it's typical NAM games.

I dunno.. I just keep watching the high that's coming over us now.. when it doesn't move out a little quicker the run sucks her mostly... moves a little quicker its decent.. This run rosie o'donnell high until to late. Just my simple way of seeing how the run plays out early.

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Looking at the reflectivity, NAM looks to have some sort of meso-low at hour 54 coming down Lake Michigan...hitting the Chicago lakefront and eventually NW/N Indiana. Even gets down here at hour 66. Obviously going to be a wait and see thing, but at least there's been a few models showing an interesting set up post synoptic snows.

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MKX

.UPDATE...A LOOK AT THE NEW NAM COMING IN THIS EVENING SHOWS A BIT

OF A SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE QPF/SNOW FIELD FOR THE FRIDAY

NIGHT/SATURDAY SNOW EVENT. IT ALSO SHOWS THE LAKE CONTRIBUTION NOT

HAVING ENOUGH TIME TO BRING ADDITIONAL ACCUMS TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE

NAM SHOWS WINDS BACKING QUICKLY TO THE NORTH THEN NORTHWEST...

KEEPING THE FORMING LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND MORE OFF-SHORE DURING THE

EVENT. THE FRONTOGENTIC FORCING...ESPECIALLY AT 600MB HAS SHIFTED

FARTHER SW. THESE AREN/T SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THAT WOULD HAVE A

NOTICEABLE IMPACT ON THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT. THESE FLUCTUATIONS

ARE NORMAL AND EXPECTED. WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE GFS AND THE

ECMWF TO COME IN BEFORE ANY REAL ADJUSTMENT CAN BE MADE WITH

CONFIDENCE. WE HAVE NOTICED THAT DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR...EARLY

WINTER... THESE SYSTEMS DO TEND TO GET PULLED CLOSER TO THE GREAT

LAKES THAN WHAT MODELS INITIALLY INDICATE...SO I/D BE HESITANT TO

MAKE CHANGES THAT WOULD BE OPPOSING THIS NOTABLE TREND...I.E. MOVE

THE SNOW BAND FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

IN SHORT...STEADY AS SHE GOES.

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