Moneyman Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Yeah, we'll see what the 0z runs hold. I just want something like .25 QPF (4-5 inches) would be perfect. White Sox signed Dunn, what a shocker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Congrats! Oh crap I got to get my NFL picks in.. Hate thursday games. Thanks. Eagles will take it...Texans D is horrible. White Sox signed Dunn, what a shocker. Meh...hopefully Konerko comes back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Seems pretty solid...I also like the mention of the possibility of a thin stripe of 4+ somewhere. 18z NAM did bump our QPF back over .3 fwiw... hard to believe (well maybe not) that it had nearly 1" qpf yesterday. GFS looks a tiny bit better too. I'd say we're pretty solid for 2-3" of snow. I won't go any higher than that right now. What are you thinking for Lake Effect? Looks like a window of opportunity for some modest LES in NW Indiana for a 12-18 hour period after the passing of the clipper. After that, Lake Michigan looks to throw marshmellows towards SW Michigan/South Bend/Michigan City for a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Yeah, we'll see what the 0z runs hold. I just want something like .25 QPF (4-5 inches) would be perfect. White Sox signed Dunn, what a shocker. I have a feeling the 0z runs will come in OK. Brewers sign Brandon Boggs. Ex-Ranger with a lifetime slash line of .212/.318/.375/.692. What a shocker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Thanks. Eagles will take it...Texans D is horrible. Meh...hopefully Konerko comes back. You can have prince fielder... For Gavin Floyd and a few more pieces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 For Bow and Moneyman: 18z NAM QPF output: 18z GFS QPF output: 2-5" seem like a good bet for MKE/Waukesha? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 For Bow and Moneyman: 2-5" seem like a good bet for MKE/Waukesha? I'd be stunned if your high end came true. I think 2" for the city of MKE and 4" out towards waukesha is doable, especially in SW Waukesha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 I'd be stunned if your high end came true. I think 2" for the city of MKE and 4" out towards waukesha is doable, especially in SW Waukesha. Chances of winds spinning up some LES? I'm not really familiar with that sort of stuff out this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 If the NAM came true (18z) S. WI would have a widespread 4-6 inch amounts imo. Like you said, it's all going to depend on how strong that high is, and how far west it gets. We need it weak and to the east, otherwise, this clipper is going to fail for our region. This storm isn't even fully sampled yet, so anything is possible imo. A 50-60 mile shift (either way) in the heaviest qpf band would be huge. It would make the difference between a decent storm (5-6 inches) or just an inch. BTW, Cubs are after Konerko, wouldn't that be something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 If the NAM came true (18z) S. WI would have a widespread 4-6 inch amounts imo. Like you said, it's all going to depend on how strong that high is, and how far west it gets. We need it weak and to the east, otherwise, this clipper is going to fail for our region. This storm isn't even fully sampled yet, so anything is possible imo. A 50-60 mile shift (either way) in the heaviest qpf band would be huge. It would make the difference between a decent storm (6 inches) or just an inch. BTW, Cubs are after Konerko, wouldn't that be something. Would be nice to shift into my area....Oh well....glad you guys are getting some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 BTW, just for the record... -TMJ4 is going with 3-5" for MKE proper (5-8" for SW Waukesha). -CBS 58 says 3-6" south of 94 and 1-3" north. -Fox6 says 4-6" for MKE (due to LES) and 2-4" inland. -WISN has a crappy website. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 GFS looks a tiny bit better too. I'd say we're pretty solid for 2-3" of snow. I won't go any higher than that right now. What are you thinking for Lake Effect? Looks like a window of opportunity for some modest LES in NW Indiana for a 12-18 hour period after the passing of the clipper. After that, Lake Michigan looks to throw marshmellows towards SW Michigan/South Bend/Michigan City for a few days. I don't know. Haven't really looked at the lake effect setup too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 I'd be stunned if your high end came true. I think 2" for the city of MKE and 4" out towards waukesha is doable, especially in SW Waukesha. Just remember where I actually live. It puts things in perspective Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Would be nice to shift into my area....Oh well....glad you guys are getting some. Im still super ticked that its gonna miss our area, especially because its the first widespread snow of the season. Dying to see a blanket of white to start the 2010-11 season. However, all hope is not lost for us. DTX is talking about northerly flow bringing down a lake huron band Saturday. Occasionally those can be quite well for far eastern MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 If the NAM came true (18z) S. WI would have a widespread 4-6 inch amounts imo. Like you said, it's all going to depend on how strong that high is, and how far west it gets. We need it weak and to the east, otherwise, this clipper is going to fail for our region. This storm isn't even fully sampled yet, so anything is possible imo. A 50-60 mile shift (either way) in the heaviest qpf band would be huge. It would make the difference between a decent storm (5-6 inches) or just an inch. BTW, Cubs are after Konerko, wouldn't that be something. "Anything" is not possible. The track agreement across models is excellent. We're not talking about cutter with a 200 mile low spread between models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Seems pretty solid...I also like the mention of the possibility of a thin stripe of 4+ somewhere. 18z NAM did bump our QPF back over .3 fwiw... hard to believe (well maybe not) that it had nearly 1" qpf yesterday. 2-4" seems good. I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Cubs? Cubs? Stop it. They'll be lucky if the team isn't sold and the stadium razed. I'm sticking with my 4 inch call... What's Saukvillle going with? About 20 inches? Anyone know if he is still running jet fuel in his snowblower ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 "Anything" is not possible. The track agreement across models is excellent. We're not talking about cutter with a 200 mile low spread between models. Agree...I could see smaller shifts of 50 miles or less, which I guess is significant if you're near the edge. I'm gonna hold out a little hope that the models are weakening this a little quickly, but I'm pretty much resigned to the heaviest band occurring northwest of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Kinda nice to see you guys south and east of here pumped up. Enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 2-4" seems good. I'll take it. A good start to the season at least.. Gives me all the excuse to stay inside and watch the Civil War on Saturday and several drinks.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 What you know another MN bullseye... I posted somewhere the other day, cant remember what thread. In the past 8 winters, Detroit had received a cumulative total of 66 inches MORE snow than Minneapolis. From a climo standpoint that doesnt match up at all. The "law of averages", plus the fact that its la Nina, gave me a real strong gut feeling MSP would definitely beat DTW this winter. Still think DTW ends up above normal, but MSP well above (keep in mind they average more as it is). And MSP is certainly off and running... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 A good start to the season at least.. Gives me all the excuse to stay inside and watch the Civil War on Saturday and several drinks.. Exactly...always nice to get on the board early in met winter. And go Ducks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 The slight trend northeast on the 12z is taking the QC out of the best snows as I feared last night. Wouldn't be surprised to see the trend continue with tonight and tomorrow morning's runs. I'm going with a quick inch with the WAA wing here before everything shifts east. We're under a WSW, but this probably won't even be an advisory snow in this part of the county. My hot zone from last night still looks good. Southern Minnesota through southern Wisconsin, down towards Chicagoland and South Bend. At least we should get our first measurable snow out of this, unless there's a drastic shift north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 3, 2010 Author Share Posted December 3, 2010 some interesting images from the LSX WRF, first few are of the band coming down but the last couple are showing a nice meso low that comes onshore in northeast IL. meso low would be coming onshore late saturday night based off this run, def something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Lake mesos are nearly impossible to forecast until they take shape and even then they don't always move ashore. The good news is, it looks like they'll be in play, beyond that, who the fuuck knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Well, they are definitely more favorable in weak synoptic flow, which is going to happen on the north and northeast side of the 850 low. Flow from surface through 800mb is weak easterly to northeasterly, with no significant flow above that until around 600mb or so. It has a shot of coming onshore, should one form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 If the NAM came true (18z) S. WI would have a widespread 4-6 inch amounts imo. Like you said, it's all going to depend on how strong that high is, and how far west it gets. We need it weak and to the east, otherwise, this clipper is going to fail for our region. This storm isn't even fully sampled yet, so anything is possible imo. A 50-60 mile shift (either way) in the heaviest qpf band would be huge. It would make the difference between a decent storm (5-6 inches) or just an inch. BTW, Cubs are after Konerko, wouldn't that be something. 50 miles or so shift seems like a little much this late in the game but like you said anything is possible up to that amount without sounding too crazy I think.. I could easily see the heavier stuff modeled west of the Mighty Miss flip to the east side still.. that's probably not anywhere near 50 miles tho.. or it could even def end up farther west.. 50 miles makes a big difference with this kind of system I would think. Models not having everything sampled yet is pretty much BS IMO.. This storm track has been pretty much set in stone give or take a little bit for days on end now. That whole its not fully sampled yet talk every storm as a whole is pretty much just us weenies telling our self that. I can't imagine how atrocious the models would be if they weren't sampled as well as we think.. Sure there is room for improvement with sampling and the models get new data every run I'm sure, but I think that whole its not sampled good yet gets thrown around way to much when we don't like what we see. I could be violently wrong but it is what I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 The slight trend northeast on the 12z is taking the QC out of the best snows as I feared last night. Wouldn't be surprised to see the trend continue with tonight and tomorrow morning's runs. I'm going with a quick inch with the WAA wing here before everything shifts east. We're under a WSW, but this probably won't even be an advisory snow in this part of the county. My hot zone from last night still looks good. Southern Minnesota through southern Wisconsin, down towards Chicagoland and South Bend. At least we should get our first measurable snow out of this, unless there's a drastic shift north. I think you will make out much better than you think.. But what do I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 NAM not looking to encouraging through 24 for out here I don't think... When do I think right though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 NAM not looking to encouraging through 24 for out here I don't think... When do I think right though. If there is a shift south just blame $man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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