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12/3-12/6 MW/GL snow event?


Thundersnow12

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Seems pretty solid...I also like the mention of the possibility of a thin stripe of 4+ somewhere. 18z NAM did bump our QPF back over .3 fwiw... hard to believe (well maybe not) that it had nearly 1" qpf yesterday.

GFS looks a tiny bit better too. I'd say we're pretty solid for 2-3" of snow. I won't go any higher than that right now.

What are you thinking for Lake Effect?

Looks like a window of opportunity for some modest LES in NW Indiana for a 12-18 hour period after the passing of the clipper. After that, Lake Michigan looks to throw marshmellows towards SW Michigan/South Bend/Michigan City for a few days.

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Yeah, we'll see what the 0z runs hold. I just want something like .25 QPF (4-5 inches) would be perfect.

White Sox signed Dunn, what a shocker.

I have a feeling the 0z runs will come in OK.

Brewers sign Brandon Boggs. Ex-Ranger with a lifetime slash line of .212/.318/.375/.692. What a shocker.

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If the NAM came true (18z) S. WI would have a widespread 4-6 inch amounts imo. Like you said, it's all going to depend on how strong that high is, and how far west it gets. We need it weak and to the east, otherwise, this clipper is going to fail for our region.

This storm isn't even fully sampled yet, so anything is possible imo. A 50-60 mile shift (either way) in the heaviest qpf band would be huge. It would make the difference between a decent storm (5-6 inches) or just an inch.

BTW, Cubs are after Konerko, wouldn't that be something.

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If the NAM came true (18z) S. WI would have a widespread 4-6 inch amounts imo. Like you said, it's all going to depend on how strong that high is, and how far west it gets. We need it weak and to the east, otherwise, this clipper is going to fail for our region.

This storm isn't even fully sampled yet, so anything is possible imo. A 50-60 mile shift (either way) in the heaviest qpf band would be huge. It would make the difference between a decent storm (6 inches) or just an inch.

BTW, Cubs are after Konerko, wouldn't that be something.

Would be nice to shift into my area....Oh well....glad you guys are getting some.

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GFS looks a tiny bit better too. I'd say we're pretty solid for 2-3" of snow. I won't go any higher than that right now.

What are you thinking for Lake Effect?

Looks like a window of opportunity for some modest LES in NW Indiana for a 12-18 hour period after the passing of the clipper. After that, Lake Michigan looks to throw marshmellows towards SW Michigan/South Bend/Michigan City for a few days.

I don't know. Haven't really looked at the lake effect setup too much.

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Would be nice to shift into my area....Oh well....glad you guys are getting some.

Im still super ticked that its gonna miss our area, especially because its the first widespread snow of the season. Dying to see a blanket of white to start the 2010-11 season. However, all hope is not lost for us. DTX is talking about northerly flow bringing down a lake huron band Saturday. Occasionally those can be quite well for far eastern MI.

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If the NAM came true (18z) S. WI would have a widespread 4-6 inch amounts imo. Like you said, it's all going to depend on how strong that high is, and how far west it gets. We need it weak and to the east, otherwise, this clipper is going to fail for our region.

This storm isn't even fully sampled yet, so anything is possible imo. A 50-60 mile shift (either way) in the heaviest qpf band would be huge. It would make the difference between a decent storm (5-6 inches) or just an inch.

BTW, Cubs are after Konerko, wouldn't that be something.

"Anything" is not possible. The track agreement across models is excellent. We're not talking about cutter with a 200 mile low spread between models.

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"Anything" is not possible. The track agreement across models is excellent. We're not talking about cutter with a 200 mile low spread between models.

Agree...I could see smaller shifts of 50 miles or less, which I guess is significant if you're near the edge.

I'm gonna hold out a little hope that the models are weakening this a little quickly, but I'm pretty much resigned to the heaviest band occurring northwest of here.

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What you know another MN bullseye... :(

I posted somewhere the other day, cant remember what thread. In the past 8 winters, Detroit had received a cumulative total of 66 inches MORE snow than Minneapolis. From a climo standpoint that doesnt match up at all. The "law of averages", plus the fact that its la Nina, gave me a real strong gut feeling MSP would definitely beat DTW this winter. Still think DTW ends up above normal, but MSP well above (keep in mind they average more as it is). And MSP is certainly off and running...

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The slight trend northeast on the 12z is taking the QC out of the best snows as I feared last night. Wouldn't be surprised to see the trend continue with tonight and tomorrow morning's runs. I'm going with a quick inch with the WAA wing here before everything shifts east. We're under a WSW, but this probably won't even be an advisory snow in this part of the county. My hot zone from last night still looks good. Southern Minnesota through southern Wisconsin, down towards Chicagoland and South Bend. At least we should get our first measurable snow out of this, unless there's a drastic shift north.

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Well, they are definitely more favorable in weak synoptic flow, which is going to happen on the north and northeast side of the 850 low. Flow from surface through 800mb is weak easterly to northeasterly, with no significant flow above that until around 600mb or so. It has a shot of coming onshore, should one form.

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If the NAM came true (18z) S. WI would have a widespread 4-6 inch amounts imo. Like you said, it's all going to depend on how strong that high is, and how far west it gets. We need it weak and to the east, otherwise, this clipper is going to fail for our region.

This storm isn't even fully sampled yet, so anything is possible imo. A 50-60 mile shift (either way) in the heaviest qpf band would be huge. It would make the difference between a decent storm (5-6 inches) or just an inch.

BTW, Cubs are after Konerko, wouldn't that be something.

50 miles or so shift seems like a little much this late in the game but like you said anything is possible up to that amount without sounding too crazy I think.. I could easily see the heavier stuff modeled west of the Mighty Miss flip to the east side still.. that's probably not anywhere near 50 miles tho.. or it could even def end up farther west.. 50 miles makes a big difference with this kind of system I would think. Models not having everything sampled yet is pretty much BS IMO.. This storm track has been pretty much set in stone give or take a little bit for days on end now. That whole its not fully sampled yet talk every storm as a whole is pretty much just us weenies telling our self that. I can't imagine how atrocious the models would be if they weren't sampled as well as we think.. Sure there is room for improvement with sampling and the models get new data every run I'm sure, but I think that whole its not sampled good yet gets thrown around way to much when we don't like what we see. I could be violently wrong but it is what I think.

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The slight trend northeast on the 12z is taking the QC out of the best snows as I feared last night. Wouldn't be surprised to see the trend continue with tonight and tomorrow morning's runs. I'm going with a quick inch with the WAA wing here before everything shifts east. We're under a WSW, but this probably won't even be an advisory snow in this part of the county. My hot zone from last night still looks good. Southern Minnesota through southern Wisconsin, down towards Chicagoland and South Bend. At least we should get our first measurable snow out of this, unless there's a drastic shift north.

I think you will make out much better than you think.. But what do I know.

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