Hoosier Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Euro: we're out to 48... the system retrograding off the east coast has a stretched out 1000 mb low pressure.. the clipper has a light to moderate snow band from Minneapolis through Chicago. Not sure if it's stronger or anything but that was from the euro thread. Euro reversed that slight north/east thing from the 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 I'm going with 4 inches in my backyard.... I really think heaviest stays far south of me. I see the NWS in LSE already reduced amts on their little graphic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 On the positive side, this event looks to be safely all snow here even if there are some minor shifts. There were a couple prior model run that were one bump or two away from introducing mixing concerns. On the negative side, the weakening shown as it moves east. Although the Euro is still putting out about .3 here which would still be a decent event even without the higher ratios that should be experienced farther north. The DGZ depth looks to be a bit less here but we might still be able to pull off 12:1 or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Is this storm even fully sampled yet? I will wait until 12z tommorow before we know anything that could be set in stone imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Is this storm even fully sampled yet? I will wait until 12z tommorow before we know anything that could be set in stone imo. Not yet which means that we're still prone to some minor shifting at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 12z NAM spits out 3 inches for ORD, with the GFS about the same. 48 12/04 12Z 29 28 138 6 0.03 0.00 530 547 -6.6 -22.9 1020 100 -SN 000OVC200 0.3 0.8 51 12/04 15Z 30 28 138 6 0.08 0.00 529 545 -6.5 -26.4 1020 100 -SN 000OVC181 0.8 0.8 54 12/04 18Z 30 28 105 4 0.08 0.00 527 543 -7.8 -27.2 1019 100 -SN 000OVC169 0.8 0.8 57 12/04 21Z 31 29 61 5 0.08 0.00 526 542 -8.8 -27.5 1019 100 -SN 005OVC178 0.7 1.4 60 12/05 00Z 31 30 17 5 0.04 0.00 525 542 -9.1 -27.8 1021 100 -SN 006OVC135 0.4 3.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 12z NAM spits out 3 inches for ORD, with the GFS about the same. It may be closer to 5" based off of BUFKIT. http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/cobb_nam/nam_kord.dat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Again and on all 3 models I look at has the High over WI hanging tough and a little further west. Just squashes it.. Move that 1024 out or its farther east and you're looking at the watches looking pretty along with better precip here. Easy as pie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 It may be closer to 5" based off of BUFKIT. http://www.meteor.ia...am/nam_kord.dat Ratios between 15-20:1 would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 ORD: 12z.... ECMWF: 0.30" GFS: 0.30" NAM: 0.29" GGEM: 0.25-0.50" LAF: 12z... ECMWF: 0.30" GFS: 0.24" NAM: 0.21" GGEM: 0.10-0.25" MSN: 12z.... ECMWF: 0.28" GFS: 0.25" NAM: 0.38" GGEM: 0.25-0.50" MSP: 12z... ECMWF: 0.39" GFS: 0.30" NAM: 0.46" GGEM: 0.50-0.75" LSE: 12z... ECMWF: 0.38" GFS: 0.30" NAM: 0.46" GGEM: About 0.50" MKE: 12z... ECMWF: 0.14" GFS: 0.22" NAM: 0.28" GGEM: 0.25-0.50" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 ORD: 12z.... ECMWF: 0.30" GFS: 0.30" NAM: 0.29" GGEM: 0.25-0.50" pretty good agreement right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 http://www.sanfordla...WRF/82scale.png Friday evening thru Sunday morning. Should I make the trip home for an extra 2" I decided that over break if something epic happens off of Lake Erie in NY, I'm gonna take the trip. If nothing good is present this winter break, hopefully next winter will have something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Little better with the high and the low in the NE not as wound up = a little more precip for us flatlander's in the east - Yay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadTown Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 MKE still sticking with 5-7" out my way...i will believe it when i see it. I don't trust anything with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 MKE still sticking with 5-7" out my way...i will believe it when i see it. I don't trust anything with this one. Welcome to the board. Do you go to school at the UW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 MPX has upgraded to warning MN...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR ANOKA-BLUE EARTH-CARVER-DAKOTA-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-GOODHUE- HENNEPIN-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-MCLEOD-MEEKER-NICOLLET-RAMSEY-RICE- SCOTT-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-STEARNS-STEELE-TODD-WASECA- WASHINGTON-WATONWAN-WRIGHT. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST FRIDAY NIGHT FOR BROWN-CHIPPEWA-DOUGLAS-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE- POPE-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-STEVENS-SWIFT-YELLOW MEDICINE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Off to work will post more thoughts tonight late 3ish on what I see with all the new model runs. I may not jump at anything higher than 4-6" in the heaviest snow band but we'll see what the data tonight holds... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 IND issued a special weather statement and mentions the possibility of 2-4" of snow along and north of a line from Terre Haute-Martinsville-Columbus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 We should see LOT bust out WWA for 3-5 any minute now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 I'll take the 18z NAM and run with it. .3 QPF with 17-18:1 ratios? Yes please. Too bad it's the 18z NAM though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sidewinder Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Latest HPC 2-day forecast is now out also, southern MN is bullseye. Chicago looks good too. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_psnow_gt_04.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 No headlines, but LOT expects 4-5" across southern portion of the FA, and 6" across Illinois. Mentions possibility of Lake Enhancement, and perhaps a Lake Effect bonus for NW Indiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 FWIW... Looks good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 GFS looks sweet on the western side of the mighty m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Meh, GFS weakens a lot once it gets into our area (Bow) NAM looks good though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 FWIW... Looks good to me. Streamwoodie in the bulls-eye? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 IND issued a special weather statement and mentions the possibility of 2-4" of snow along and north of a line from Terre Haute-Martinsville-Columbus. Seems pretty solid...I also like the mention of the possibility of a thin stripe of 4+ somewhere. 18z NAM did bump our QPF back over .3 fwiw... hard to believe (well maybe not) that it had nearly 1" qpf yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Meh, GFS weakens a lot once it gets into our area (Bow) NAM looks good though. Yeah, pube hair better only... at least it didn't get any worse.. Should get an inch or two to make chopping down the tree perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Streamwoodie in the bulls-eye? Sitting right on the 6" line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Sitting right on a 6" weenie now. Congrats! Oh crap I got to get my NFL picks in.. Hate thursday games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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