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12/3-12/6 MW/GL snow event?

Thundersnow12

By Thundersnow12,
in Central/Western States

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baroclinic_instability

baroclinic_instability

Posted
Posted

does it look like any decent wind with this thing or no?

Nein. Unlike a more pure Alberta clipper, this thing won't have the tight surface gradient and strong CAA behind the front. With the cold side frontal forcing well dispaced into the cold air, the actual surface low will be well displaced from the snow. In other words, wind won't be an issue.

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Ajdos

Ajdos

Posted
Posted

Yeah, lake-effect snow belts are getting clobbered. Even N-Michigan, and Grand Rapids received around 5 inches of snowfall today, Gaylord, and Traverse City also are receiving some nice snowfall I got about .5 :),and honestly there was a 20 mile backup on I75 SB. LOL

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KeenerWx

KeenerWx

Posted
Posted

Meanwhile, and this is 100 percent OT, but Buffalo NY is getting lit up like a Christmas Tree with LES. http://rap.ucar.edu/...e=-1&duration=3

AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING IN EFFECT FOR CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY SNOW...

...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO

LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE WILL BE IN THE VICINITY AND JUST A FEW

MILES SOUTH OF THE BUFFALO AIRPORT...

THIS WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM EST.

Looks like reports of 12-16" thus far...If only...Snowman.gif

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Moneyman

Moneyman

Posted
Posted

LOCATIONS: NORTHERN ERIE AND GENESEE COUNTIES...PRIMARILY THE

BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS AND THE SOUTH HALF OF GENESEE COUNTY.

* TIMING: LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY

AFTERNOON.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS 2 TO 3 FEET IN

THE MOST PERSISTENT BANDS. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER

HOUR LIKELY.

2-3 feet. Wow. I'm jealous.

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Ajdos

Ajdos

Posted
Posted

LOCATIONS: NORTHERN ERIE AND GENESEE COUNTIES...PRIMARILY THE

BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS AND THE SOUTH HALF OF GENESEE COUNTY.

* TIMING: LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY

AFTERNOON.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS 2 TO 3 FEET IN

THE MOST PERSISTENT BANDS. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER

HOUR LIKELY.

2-3 feet. Wow. I'm jealous.

Am, I dont recall even seeing 2-3 feet. :(.. I remember seeing 12 feet tho :), back when buffalo got hammered for Christmas, a few years ago.

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Ajdos

Ajdos

Posted
Posted

AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING IN EFFECT FOR CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY SNOW...

...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO

LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE WILL BE IN THE VICINITY AND JUST A FEW

MILES SOUTH OF THE BUFFALO AIRPORT...

THIS WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM EST. Looks like reports of 12-16" thus far...If only...Snowman.gif

guitar.gif Funny thing is we are all up on this storms ass bringing us 1-5" of snow LOL..Well not all of us.. LOL Basically the band of snow is somewhat going to look like a lake effect snow band (Width wise) ROFL.. Like JB forecasted.

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prinsburg_wx

prinsburg_wx

Posted
Posted

The issue seems to be the deep trough across the east, -nao is fairly deep, expecting it slowly but surely to moderate overt the next week to a more neutral stage, that's when I would look for bigger storms around the m/v and g/l regions.

yeah i see both 0Z euro/ggem may have something in the offing around day 10 or so

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Ajdos

Ajdos

Posted
Posted

yeah i see both 0Z euro/ggem may have something in the offing around day 10 or so

The NAO is just way to Negative atm, blocking pattern developing after the clipper, but slowly we shall pick up in the middle of Dec.. I think a lot of us will see a White Christmas.

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Chicago Storm

Chicago Storm

Posted
Posted

ORD:

0z....

ECMWF: 0.52"

GFS: 0.32"

NAM: 0.31"

GGEM: 0.25-0.50"

LAF:

0z...

ECMWF: 0.36"

GFS: 0.33"

NAM: 0.28"

GGEM: 0.25-0.50"

MSN:

0z....

ECMWF: 0.57"

GFS: 0.29"

NAM: 0.37"

GGEM: 0.25-0.50"

MSP:

0z...

ECMWF: 0.51"

GFS: 0.37"

NAM: 0.59"

GGEM: About 0.50"

LSE:

ECMWF: 0.57"

GFS: 0.37"

NAM: 0.49"

GGEM: 0.25-0.50"

MKE:

ECMWF: 0.45"

GFS: 0.26"

NAM: 0.24"

GGEM: 0.25"+

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baroclinic_instability

baroclinic_instability

Posted
Posted

This thing is going to be a prolific snow producer across southern MN/south WI/northern ILL. Look at the SREF prob of >=50 mb or more dendritic growth zone and the large swath of a mean 50 mb layer (dashed black).

SREF precip trend is coming into a more realistic state of .50" of QPF as the cyclogenesis happy WRF-ARW/NMM runs come into reality with the operational guidance. Track is becoming consistent enough to begin outlining some WWA and possible storm watches, I would expect 12Z guidance will be enough for offices through the above mentioned locales to start issuing WWA and possible storm watches.

post-999-0-04830600-1291278979.gif

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Justin

Justin

Posted
Posted

This looks golden for Southern MN, Northern Ia, Northern IL, Southern WI, Northern IN I'd say. The South edge of the heavier snows should run from just South of Mason City Ia-Quad Cities-Indianapolis with the North edge of the heaviest snow band being about 75mi or so North of that line. I'd say a good shot a few folks get up to 5 or 6 inches, so I'd go a general 3-5" in that band and 1-2" immediately surrounding it. The South edge of that band could get real dicey though as surface temps on Saturday will be hovering around freezing and enough WAA aloft to cause some sleet to mix in or a change over to plain ole drizzle if a bit of a dry punch cuts off the precip and focuses it a bit further North. Good enough now probably for a Winter Storm Watch in those locales with an upgrade to a WWA or Warning (if six inch amounts look like a good shot).

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baroclinic_instability

baroclinic_instability

Posted
Posted

This looks golden for Southern MN, Northern Ia, Northern IL, Southern WI, Northern IN I'd say. The South edge of the heavier snows should run from just South of Mason City Ia-Quad Cities-Indianapolis with the North edge of the heaviest snow band being about 50mi or so North of that line. I'd say a good shot a few folks get up to 5 or 6 inches, so I'd go a general 3-5" in that band and 1-2" immediately surrounding it. The South edge of that band could get real dicey though as surface temps on Saturday will be hovering around freezing and enough WAA aloft to cause some sleet to mix in or a change over to plain ole drizzle if a bit of a dry punch cuts off the precip and focuses it a bit further North. Good enough now probably for a Winter Storm Watch in those locales with an upgrade to a WWA or Warning (if six inch amounts look like a good shot).

Generally agree although I think your heaviest snow line may be a bit too far south and 5-6" is low for the high amounts with the favorable snow crystal growth and the heavy frontal banding expected. Localized 8+ seem more likely.

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Justin

Justin

Posted
Posted

Generally agree although I think your heaviest snow line may be a bit too far south and 5-6" is low for the high amounts with the favorable snow crystal growth and the heavy frontal banding expected. Localized 8+ seem more likely.

Well crystal growth does look good but I'm a bit leery jumping at 8" amounts just yet. I did edit my post to refine the width of the band to 75mi wide instead of 50...yes the South edge could wobble around but I'm going to stick with that call for right now. If the models keep pumping out good QPF, ratios look good, and dendritic growth continues to look good then I'd be willing to bump the max amounts into the 5-7" range.

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baroclinic_instability

baroclinic_instability

Posted
Posted

Well crystal growth does look good but I'm a bit leery jumping at 8" amounts just yet. I did edit my post to refine the width of the band to 75mi wide instead of 50...yes the South edge could wobble around but I'm going to stick with that call for right now. If the models keep pumping out good QPF, ratios look good, and dendritic growth continues to look good then I'd be willing to bump the max amounts into the 5-7" range.

I definitely don't blame ya for being leery, track is still wobbly with the small scale meso details the models having significant issues with as expected. Unique event in that almost everything driven by meso processes with incipient cyclogenesis initiated by jet exit divergence and mid level ascent with strong frontogenesis on the cold side of the storm in the low levels as the mass response to the divergence aloft. Synoptics playing a small role with almost no DCVA or WAA in the early life cycle. Considering that, I have a good feeling that banded snowfall is likely inside the main swath with some weird totals, mostly why I am going higher. Nonetheless, as you said, pinpointing that will be tough. I don't blame NWS for holding off still.

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Justin

Justin

Posted
Posted

I think I'll probably refine the South edge of that heavy snow band likely setting up from about Grissom AFB Indiana - Aurora IL-Clinton IA- Waterloo IA- Estherville IA. That line to about 60ish miles North of that line should contain the heavy snow band with 4-6" generally. A few spots certainly more.

A couple wild cards to watch here now... where does the actual energy emerge into the Plains States, does the current cold dome hold in stronger and force things further South or erode quicker and allow for a further North movement, is moisture over/under done, and does all the best mid level forcing coincide and does it sufficiently tap with the best moisture. All things that will likely not be totally clarified until early Friday. Until all that is known for sure we will likely see a lot of tweaks to the forecast. Basically along/North of I-80 pay attention lots could change in Ia/Il down into central Indiana and of course Southern MN- Southern WI.

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A-L-E-K

A-L-E-K

Posted
Posted

No watches here...but it's pretty far out period wise and loses punch as it heads east. That said as far as locations this far east go, Chicago looks pretty prime and I expect a WWA for 3-5" before too long. Model agreement on .25-.5 is pretty good and ratios should be 11:1-12:1 during the day Sat with surface temps at or just above freezing with the ground plenty cold. Areas further NW where the low will pack more punch will see a more general 4-6, with 7-8 in areas where enhanced banding manages to sit over. :snowman:

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turtlehurricane

turtlehurricane

Posted
Posted

Winter storm watch in effect for a large part of south and central WI, 6-8"! GFS and NAM BUFKIT are spitting out pretty much that range for MSN.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

402 AM CST THU DEC 2 2010

...HEAVY SNOW ANTICIPATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...

.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS IOWA AND ILLINOIS FRIDAY

NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A SWATH OF SNOW ACROSS

SOUTHERN WISCONSIN DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH TOTAL SNOW

ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE ROUGHLY SOUTH AND WEST OF

A LINE FROM WISCONSIN DELLS TO MADISON TO LAKE GENEVA.

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH

SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

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