Moneyman Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 GEM is out through 72 already. .1 QPF it shows here woo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Hour 60: http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_060.jpg Hour 72: http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_072.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 The Lions played the Pats pretty well on Thanksgiving though. At least in the first half. The Bears better not take the game lightly, as the Lions are probably better than what their record shows. I just hope the Jets beat the Pats Monday night. The Bears have to play the Patriots the week after next and we all know they very rarely lose two games in a row. The new GEM should be out soon. Like I mentioned earlier, I'm leaning on that and the Euro the most for this system as they've been on this thing from the beginning. Bears fan here. Lions won that game in Chicago to start the year if you ask me. And in my yahoo pick-em I took Detroit in this game. I just can't trust arrogant Cutler. I can't stand him... But...on a weather related note...I 100 percent agree on following the GEM and especially the EURO which have been more consistent. I'm all about consistency. Consistency breads confidence, right?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Bears fan here. Lions won that game in Chicago to start the year if you ask me. And in my yahoo pick-em I took Detroit in this game. I just can't trust arrogant Cutler. I can't stand him... But...on a weather related note...I 100 percent agree on following the GEM and especially the EURO which have been more consistent. I'm all about consistency. Consistency breads confidence, right?... When it is the CMC in question, that means consistently being bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Bears fan here. Lions won that game in Chicago to start the year if you ask me. And in my yahoo pick-em I took Detroit in this game. I just can't trust arrogant Cutler. I can't stand him... But...on a weather related note...I 100 percent agree on following the GEM and especially the EURO which have been more consistent. I'm all about consistency. Consistency breads confidence, right?... Yeah I'm a Bears fan too, but I always worry a bit after a big victory over a really good team. The Lions are going to be playing the role of spoilers the rest of the season. You always have to watch out for teams like that this time of year. I also agree with you about that first game. The whole completing the process BS is a little ridiculous. I'm sure they will be tweaking that rule in the off-season. The new GEM looks pretty similar to the 12z to me so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 GEM is out through 72 already. .1 QPF it shows here woo. Ouch. I'm happy though for LAF.. Normally they are taking it on the chin for us up here in early December.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 When it is the CMC in question, that means consistently being bad Wait, the GEM is consistenty bad? You got me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Wait, the GEM is consistenty bad? You got me Yeah, the CMC global is definitely the worst of the big three, consistently bad with synoptics patterns beyond 132 hours, often times way too gangbusters with winter time cyclogenesis with its bad cold bias, etc. It really isn't that good compared to the GFS and Euro, especially if used in an operational forecast sense, not just talking and model reading like we do here in the threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 IMHO the GEM blew away many of the short-mid range models the first half of last winter season. It was outstanding with the two big December storms. The last half of the season it became way too aggressive with storm systems, often forecasting huge snowfall amounts only to back off in the last 48hrs. It has had some big screwups this season as well. One I can think of is the phantom Ohio Valley bomb that never happened back in October or early Nov. However, it has been relatively consistent with this storm, and since it's been fairly agreeable with the Euro this past week I've been leaning that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Wait, the GEM is consistenty bad? You got me It reminds me of the NAM where it does have certain weather patterns it excels and really should only be used operationally in those select forecasts. It is more reliable than the NAM tho...it definitely is not NAM bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 IMHO the GEM blew away many of the short-mid range models the first half of last winter season. It was outstanding with the two big December storms. The last half of the season it became way too aggressive with storm systems, often forecasting huge snowfall amounts only to back off in the last 48hrs. It has had some big screwups this season as well. One I can think of is the phantom Ohio Valley bomb that never happened back in October or early Nov. However, it has been relatively consistent with this storm, and since it's been fairly agreeable with the Euro this past week I've been leaning that way. Every model has their good storms. I am talking more from a statistical long-term standpoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Has the nam been bad with this system? Seemed it jumped right in with the big boys at 84 hrs with placement of the heaviest axis of precip.. Sure it always has problems with over juicing at times but even the Euro was guilty of that last night. I think its pretty obvious where the heavier snow is going to fall.. I'll leave it to you guys to nitpick all the details of the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Yeah, the CMC global is definitely the worst of the big three, consistently bad with synoptics patterns beyond 132 hours, often times way too gangbusters with winter time cyclogenesis with its bad cold bias, etc. It really isn't that good compared to the GFS and Euro, especially if used in an operational forecast sense, not just talking and model reading like we do here in the threads. Could not have said it better. It is sort of like the long range version of the NAM. However, it, along with the Euro, where the two models to first be consistent identifying that there was a storm to watch. The GFS has caught up though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Could not have said it better. It is sort of like the long range version of the NAM. However, it, along with the Euro, where the two models to first be consistent identifying that there was a storm to watch. The GFS has caught up though. Yeah, agreed. The GFS was doing some weird stuff early with this forecast where the CMC and Euro had the low amplitude wave and some good snow banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 After looking at all the latest 00z model runs my gut feeling still places the axis of best snowfall from southern Minnesota, through southern Wisconsin, down towards Chicago and South Bend. I think for Hawkeye (in Cedar Rapids) and here near the QC we'll pick up a quick burst of snow before getting dry slotted. My guess for the QC is 1 inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Yeah, the CMC global is definitely the worst of the big three, consistently bad with synoptics patterns beyond 132 hours, often times way too gangbusters with winter time cyclogenesis with its bad cold bias, etc. It really isn't that good compared to the GFS and Euro, especially if used in an operational forecast sense, not just talking and model reading like we do here in the threads. speaking of the cmc/ggem....maybe it's gonna try to get another gangbuster going around day 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 ya we were talking quite a bit today about this system, still have to get our bets decided. Gino was gonna post on here but he is now sick with strep throat. I see. ...and hopefully Gino can join us here one of these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 After looking at all the latest 00z model runs my gut feeling still places the axis of best snowfall from southern Minnesota, through southern Wisconsin, down towards Chicago and South Bend. I think for Hawkeye (in Cedar Rapids) and here near the QC we'll pick up a quick burst of snow before getting dry slotted. My guess for the QC is 1 inch. Ouch, that probably wouldn't bode well here. I think we're getting a pretty good idea now and hopefully should be able to nail down specific areas with amounts tomorrow. I got giddy and pulled the trigger on 3-6" a little bit earlier than normal...fortunately the latest runs for the most part didn't make me look like a fool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Ouch, that probably wouldn't bode well here. I think we're getting a pretty good idea now and hopefully should be able to nail down specific areas with amounts tomorrow. I got giddy and pulled the trigger on 3-6" a little bit earlier than normal...fortunately the latest runs for the most part didn't make me look like a fool. Yeah it gets especially tricky for you guys to the southeast. Some of the models dry up the QPF, and others maintain and even increase amounts. Definitely a tricky forecast, although I think we all end up saying that for each and every storm system lol. For those of us on the southern side of the precip shield it gets tricky as well, as there is a very sharp cutoff on amounts. I think the main reason I'm a little pessimistic on amounts here, is I've often seen amounts along the WAA wing with a clipper overdone a few days out, only to see it shrivel some as the system draws near. A lot of times we'll see the WAA wing get cut back quite a bit due to the dry boundary layer. Anyway, I think the Chicago peeps oughta be feeling good about things, as they are locked in a pretty secure location. Plenty of room for adjustment either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 Yeah it gets especially tricky for you guys to the southeast. Some of the models dry up the QPF, and others maintain and even increase amounts. Definitely a tricky forecast, although I think we all end up saying that for each and every storm system lol. For those of us on the southern side of the precip shield it gets tricky as well, as there is a very sharp cutoff on amounts. I think the main reason I'm a little pessimistic on amounts here, is I've often seen amounts along the WAA wing with a clipper overdone a few days out, only to see it shrivel some as the system draws near. A lot of times we'll see the WAA wing get cut back quite a bit due to the dry boundary layer. Anyway, I think the Chicago peeps oughta be feeling good about things, as they are locked in a pretty secure location. Plenty of room for adjustment either way. thats what happens when the thread starter is from the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Euro is quite a bit stronger, and looks like a good run for WI on this run. According to Tombo that is anyways. He said at least .25 QPF for my area, probably more down south. (Yes, I talk to him on AIM ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 00z Euro gonna creep north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 00z Euro gonna creep north? North correction FTW! Any of the free sites updating yet? PSU is still old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Tombo said this about the euro qpf wise: FDL area: .3-.35ish MKE/Madison: .4-.5 N. Ill: .25-.5 NW Ind: .25-.5 Pretty good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Tombo said this about the euro qpf wise: FDL area: .3-.35ish MKE/Madison: .4-.5 N. Ill: .25-.5 NW Ind: .25-.5 Pretty good run. Haha, remember a good run is highly relative based on location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Tombo said this about the euro qpf wise: FDL area: .3-.35ish MKE/Madison: .4-.5 N. Ill: .25-.5 NW Ind: .25-.5 Pretty good run. Wowza. Things are about to get crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 So do you think are we looking at WSW for parts of minnesota Iowa Wisconsin and Illinois tomorrow evening? After tonightts runs I am not sure. Also I don't remember the last time a storm systems qpf was laid out at an angle like this. Usually when madison gets snow michigan gets snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Personally I would wait for another couple of runs, since the models have been all over the place. But I would not be surprised if someone does issue a wsw, especially for parts of Wisconsin ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 So it looks like it's NAM/Euro vs GFS/GGEM in terms of the strength of the shortwave. NAM/Euro are stronger, while GFS/GGEM are kinda weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 does it look like any decent wind with this thing or no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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