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12/3-12/6 MW/GL snow event?


Thundersnow12

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The Lions played the Pats pretty well on Thanksgiving though. At least in the first half. The Bears better not take the game lightly, as the Lions are probably better than what their record shows. I just hope the Jets beat the Pats Monday night. The Bears have to play the Patriots the week after next and we all know they very rarely lose two games in a row.

The new GEM should be out soon. Like I mentioned earlier, I'm leaning on that and the Euro the most for this system as they've been on this thing from the beginning.

Bears fan here. Lions won that game in Chicago to start the year if you ask me. And in my yahoo pick-em I took Detroit in this game. I just can't trust arrogant Cutler. I can't stand him...

But...on a weather related note...I 100 percent agree on following the GEM and especially the EURO which have been more consistent. I'm all about consistency. Consistency breads confidence, right?...

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Bears fan here. Lions won that game in Chicago to start the year if you ask me. And in my yahoo pick-em I took Detroit in this game. I just can't trust arrogant Cutler. I can't stand him...

But...on a weather related note...I 100 percent agree on following the GEM and especially the EURO which have been more consistent. I'm all about consistency. Consistency breads confidence, right?...

When it is the CMC in question, that means consistently being bad

thumbsupsmileyanim.gif

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Bears fan here. Lions won that game in Chicago to start the year if you ask me. And in my yahoo pick-em I took Detroit in this game. I just can't trust arrogant Cutler. I can't stand him...

But...on a weather related note...I 100 percent agree on following the GEM and especially the EURO which have been more consistent. I'm all about consistency. Consistency breads confidence, right?...

Yeah I'm a Bears fan too, but I always worry a bit after a big victory over a really good team. The Lions are going to be playing the role of spoilers the rest of the season. You always have to watch out for teams like that this time of year. I also agree with you about that first game. The whole completing the process BS is a little ridiculous. I'm sure they will be tweaking that rule in the off-season.

The new GEM looks pretty similar to the 12z to me so far.

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Wait, the GEM is consistenty bad? You got me :)

Yeah, the CMC global is definitely the worst of the big three, consistently bad with synoptics patterns beyond 132 hours, often times way too gangbusters with winter time cyclogenesis with its bad cold bias, etc. It really isn't that good compared to the GFS and Euro, especially if used in an operational forecast sense, not just talking and model reading like we do here in the threads.

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IMHO the GEM blew away many of the short-mid range models the first half of last winter season. It was outstanding with the two big December storms. The last half of the season it became way too aggressive with storm systems, often forecasting huge snowfall amounts only to back off in the last 48hrs.

It has had some big screwups this season as well. One I can think of is the phantom Ohio Valley bomb that never happened back in October or early Nov. However, it has been relatively consistent with this storm, and since it's been fairly agreeable with the Euro this past week I've been leaning that way.

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IMHO the GEM blew away many of the short-mid range models the first half of last winter season. It was outstanding with the two big December storms. The last half of the season it became way too aggressive with storm systems, often forecasting huge snowfall amounts only to back off in the last 48hrs.

It has had some big screwups this season as well. One I can think of is the phantom Ohio Valley bomb that never happened back in October or early Nov. However, it has been relatively consistent with this storm, and since it's been fairly agreeable with the Euro this past week I've been leaning that way.

Every model has their good storms. I am talking more from a statistical long-term standpoint.

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Has the nam been bad with this system? Seemed it jumped right in with the big boys at 84 hrs with placement of the heaviest axis of precip.. Sure it always has problems with over juicing at times but even the Euro was guilty of that last night. I think its pretty obvious where the heavier snow is going to fall.. I'll leave it to you guys to nitpick all the details of the models.

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Yeah, the CMC global is definitely the worst of the big three, consistently bad with synoptics patterns beyond 132 hours, often times way too gangbusters with winter time cyclogenesis with its bad cold bias, etc. It really isn't that good compared to the GFS and Euro, especially if used in an operational forecast sense, not just talking and model reading like we do here in the threads.

Could not have said it better. It is sort of like the long range version of the NAM. However, it, along with the Euro, where the two models to first be consistent identifying that there was a storm to watch. The GFS has caught up though.

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Could not have said it better. It is sort of like the long range version of the NAM. However, it, along with the Euro, where the two models to first be consistent identifying that there was a storm to watch. The GFS has caught up though.

Yeah, agreed. The GFS was doing some weird stuff early with this forecast where the CMC and Euro had the low amplitude wave and some good snow banding.

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After looking at all the latest 00z model runs my gut feeling still places the axis of best snowfall from southern Minnesota, through southern Wisconsin, down towards Chicago and South Bend.

I think for Hawkeye (in Cedar Rapids) and here near the QC we'll pick up a quick burst of snow before getting dry slotted. My guess for the QC is 1 inch.

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Yeah, the CMC global is definitely the worst of the big three, consistently bad with synoptics patterns beyond 132 hours, often times way too gangbusters with winter time cyclogenesis with its bad cold bias, etc. It really isn't that good compared to the GFS and Euro, especially if used in an operational forecast sense, not just talking and model reading like we do here in the threads.

speaking of the cmc/ggem....maybe it's gonna try to get another gangbuster going around day 10 :scooter:

post-252-0-97694800-1291268599.gif

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After looking at all the latest 00z model runs my gut feeling still places the axis of best snowfall from southern Minnesota, through southern Wisconsin, down towards Chicago and South Bend.

I think for Hawkeye (in Cedar Rapids) and here near the QC we'll pick up a quick burst of snow before getting dry slotted. My guess for the QC is 1 inch.

Ouch, that probably wouldn't bode well here.

I think we're getting a pretty good idea now and hopefully should be able to nail down specific areas with amounts tomorrow. I got giddy and pulled the trigger on 3-6" a little bit earlier than normal...fortunately the latest runs for the most part didn't make me look like a fool.

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Ouch, that probably wouldn't bode well here.

I think we're getting a pretty good idea now and hopefully should be able to nail down specific areas with amounts tomorrow. I got giddy and pulled the trigger on 3-6" a little bit earlier than normal...fortunately the latest runs for the most part didn't make me look like a fool.

Yeah it gets especially tricky for you guys to the southeast. Some of the models dry up the QPF, and others maintain and even increase amounts. Definitely a tricky forecast, although I think we all end up saying that for each and every storm system lol.

For those of us on the southern side of the precip shield it gets tricky as well, as there is a very sharp cutoff on amounts. I think the main reason I'm a little pessimistic on amounts here, is I've often seen amounts along the WAA wing with a clipper overdone a few days out, only to see it shrivel some as the system draws near. A lot of times we'll see the WAA wing get cut back quite a bit due to the dry boundary layer.

Anyway, I think the Chicago peeps oughta be feeling good about things, as they are locked in a pretty secure location. Plenty of room for adjustment either way. :snowman:

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Yeah it gets especially tricky for you guys to the southeast. Some of the models dry up the QPF, and others maintain and even increase amounts. Definitely a tricky forecast, although I think we all end up saying that for each and every storm system lol.

For those of us on the southern side of the precip shield it gets tricky as well, as there is a very sharp cutoff on amounts. I think the main reason I'm a little pessimistic on amounts here, is I've often seen amounts along the WAA wing with a clipper overdone a few days out, only to see it shrivel some as the system draws near. A lot of times we'll see the WAA wing get cut back quite a bit due to the dry boundary layer.

Anyway, I think the Chicago peeps oughta be feeling good about things, as they are locked in a pretty secure location. Plenty of room for adjustment either way. :snowman:

thats what happens when the thread starter is from the area :thumbsup:

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