csnavywx Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 IMHO...the NAM has little to no utility beyond 48 hours. I know many mets who would disagree. Regardless, on to the GFS, Euro, GEM, and ensembles... In most situations, I agree with the sentiment. In a situation like this, there's really a limited range of motion for this system with a large, stable omega block to the east and a large, stable ridge over Mexico extending north, no real phasing issues to deal with and (mostly) straight line or flow. Models tend to do well in situations like this. It's when things are changing rapidly or during pattern breakdowns that they suck. The only real issue at the moment is the complex jet setup, of which the end result will most likely be QPF changes from run to run (on the NAM at least) with only fairly minor track differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 In most situations, I agree with the sentiment. In a situation like this, there's really a limited range of motion for this system with a large, stable omega block to the east and a large, stable ridge over Mexico extending north, no real phasing issues to deal with and (mostly) straight line or flow. Models tend to do well in situations like this. It's when things are changing rapidly or during pattern breakdowns that they suck. The only real issue at the moment is the complex jet setup, of which the end result will most likely be QPF changes from run to run (on the NAM at least) with only fairly minor track differences. I agree with what you are saying for the most part. I still would give this model 0 weight in any forecast beyond 48 hours. But that might just be me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 here's 0Z RGEM that goes out to 48hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 I agree with what you are saying for the most part. I still would give this model 0 weight in any forecast beyond 48 hours. But that might just be me. Mostly agree, statistically it is awful beyond 48 hours, but as I have said many times, the NAM handles certain types of rapid positive feedback cyclogenesis such as that with deep PV anomalies over sharp and moist baroclinic gradients that other models don't simulate well. It was the first to suggest deep cyclogenesis with the storm that dropped 10+ inches over MN a few weeks ago, for instance. It isn't always wrong. With low amplitude waves, however, it seems to have massive issues, especially with propagation speed. It also becomes garbage when it has the phase shift problem where the height fields are all out of phase through the domain. Crap there too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 GFS is WAY weaker so far. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 I did notice that quite a few of the ARW and NMM members of the SREF are stronger with the upper system and wanted to close it off, whereas the ETA members were (relatively speaking) all over the damn place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 GFS is WAY weaker so far. Wow. Doesn't seem like that to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Clippers love to crap the bed incoming around here it seems and in my no nothing opinion this system is a great candidate for that.. I'm expecting nothing more than an inch or two at BEST and that's why I would have locked that goofy Euro run in last night... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Doesn't seem like that to me. It definitely is weaker. It has the upper shortwave displaced a tiny bit north and the mountain response is weaker with less lee troughing and much weaker low level wind fields/LLJ in the plains. Still not buying anything and mostly sticking to sref trends, of which there are also none haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 I did notice that quite a few of the ARW and NMM members of the SREF are stronger with the upper system and wanted to close it off, whereas the ETA members were (relatively speaking) all over the damn place. Yeah I noticed this there was even a couple that tracks along the Ohio/Indiana/Michigan border on the 15z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Doesn't seem like that to me. The very small displacement north at 0Z: Compare to 18Z: And just looking at one parameter at one level, the corresponding low level mass response: 0Z: 18Z: Much weaker at 0Z. These weird shifts I think will continue until tomorrow at 0Z and I am definitely not buying any individual operational runs yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 The very small displacement north at 0Z: Compare to 18Z: And just looking at one parameter at one level, the corresponding low level mass response: 0Z: 18Z: Much weaker at 0Z. These weird shifts I think will continue until tomorrow at 0Z and I am definitely not buying any individual operational runs yet. I saw the same thing. I guess I was wondering about "way" in capital letters. No biggie though. The weenie in me cares most about what happens with the resultant weather, and the 00z GFS still looks pretty decent as far as that goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 I saw the same thing. I guess I was wondering about "way" in capital letters. No biggie though. The weenie in me cares most about what happens with the resultant weather, and the 00z GFS still looks pretty decent as far as that goes. Ah yeah I see, and I guess it really doesn't make a huge diff for you down there, still looks decent. I want some pain here in MN! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 I think the models have been pretty consistent of late with this system regarding the track of heavier precip.. I don't understand the details to much of a degree at all and that's probably a understatement, but there is a few things I can notice when you stare at every run of the models starting 8 days out For us to the east and in MI I'm afraid we can wish for the sweet spot in one palm and crap in the other and I'm pretty sure I know which palm will fill up first.. Hope I'm wrong but I only see things going downhill if anything for us in the east. Well I guess it can't get much worse if you're in eastern Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 If the gfs verifies, not a big fan of this pattern. TO much blocking, the only thing for S/E Mi Would be the wind trajectory from the N, with lake effect snow from Lake Huron possible.. And the long duration wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 GFS barley gives me .1 QPF while 18z run had .3-.35 here. Seems like a pretty drastic change to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Baroclinic where are you located in Minnesota? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 GFS barley gives me .1 QPF while 18z run had .3-.35 here. Seems like a pretty drastic change to me. You jinxed yourself 144 hours out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 GFS barley gives me .1 QPF while 18z run had .3-.35 here. Seems like a pretty drastic change to me. Comparing the runs, it looks like it shunted the qpf axis about 25-50 miles south in your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Considering the drastic changes by several of the models over the last several days, I'd say the new GFS and NAM are relatively similar to previous runs. With the exception of the tropical 12z NAM of course LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 boy if that clipper went just a tad more SW.... Looks to maybe give Mattoon-Charleston a chance at an inch or so, but here Flurries it looks like... oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 You jinxed yourself 144 hours out I wouldn't doubt it Hey, at least it's showing something. Thundersnow is looking pretty safe right now in terms of making this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 I wouldn't doubt it Hey, at least it's showing something. Thundersnow is looking pretty safe right now in terms of making this thread. right now being the two key words in that lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 right now being the two key words in that lol Are you doing an over/under with Caplan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 Are you doing an over/under with Caplan? ya we were talking quite a bit today about this system, still have to get our bets decided. Gino was gonna post on here but he is now sick with strep throat. and the bears will win on sunday, ya he was good in college but a 3rd stringer is a 3rd stringer. did we not beat the eagles last sunday?? 2nd best points scoring defense in the league, mhmm thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Btw note it doesn't say lions fan for life down below After the Tigers upcoming season you will wish it says "Lions fan for life". Back to the storm...GFS/NAM would suggest a couple of inches here. ...Still not going to buy it until Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 I'm not a fan of being on the edge of a tight probablity gradiant. I would much rather something more concrete, please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 GGEM is out to hour 60: http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/695_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 I'm not a fan of being on the edge of a tight probablity gradiant. I would much rather something more concrete, please? Somebody's gotta be on the gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 and the bears will win on sunday, ya he was good in college but a 3rd stringer is a 3rd stringer. did we not beat the eagles last sunday?? 2nd best points scoring defense in the league, mhmm thanks The Lions played the Pats pretty well on Thanksgiving though. At least in the first half. The Bears better not take the game lightly, as the Lions are probably better than what their record shows. I just hope the Jets beat the Pats Monday night. The Bears have to play the Patriots the week after next and we all know they very rarely lose two games in a row. The new GEM should be out soon. Like I mentioned earlier, I'm leaning on that and the Euro the most for this system as they've been on this thing from the beginning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.